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Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Iron Ore-Shanghai rebar falls; iron ore heads for flat Q1 end

Wed Mar 30, 2011 8:17am GMT

* Tighter credit weighing on China ore stockpiling
* India Apr-Feb iron ore exports down 18 pct
* India eyes another hike in iron ore freight rates
By Nick Trevethan

SINGAPORE, March 30 (Reuters) - Shanghai steel rebar futures dropped 0.4 percent on Wednesday, snapping a three-day winning streak, while iron ore indexes edged up, heading for a flat end for the first quarter as tighter liquidity hit stockpiling by top buyer China.

The most briskly traded rebar contract for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 20 yuan at 4,794 yuan a tonne, after gaining 2 percent in the past three sessions.

"The abundant liquidity of the past two years created a huge build-up in steel inventories, but this year tighter liquidity will mean building additional inventory will be very difficult," said Henry Liu, analyst at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong.

"The cash situation for consumers is still adequate so it is too early to say they will dump inventory," he said.

"In iron ore, the second quarter will be weaker than the first. Prices will fall, with support at $160 to $165 but the downside is limited as Chinese steelmakers are running at full steam."

China's daily output of crude steel rose 2.6 percent to a record 1.945 million tonnes from March 11-20, figures from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) showed on Tuesday.

CISA said daily output stood at an average of 1.92 million tonnes in the first 20 days of the month, up from 1.823 million tonnes in February and 1.703 million tonnes in January.

According to Reuters calculations, average daily steel output up to March 20 stands at 1.81 million tonnes, which would amount to 659.5 million tonnes on an annualised basis.

The Shanghai rebar contract remains near an eight-session high, having hit a four-month low of 4,627 yuan on March 22, but is down 1.6 percent this quarter.

INDIA HIKES FREIGHT RATES AGAIN

"Most industrial commodities have recovered from the shock after the Japan earthquake and now are just waiting to see what the impact on Japanese supply will have on demand," said analyst William Adams at FastMarkets.com

"China is also a worry. China is still tightening policy and there is the fear they will overtighten and the economy will slow too quickly."

Key iron ore indexes, based on spot transactions in China, rose on Tuesday.

Platts' 62 percent iron ore index IODBZ00-PLT rose 50 cents to $169.50 a tonne, including freight, and The Steel Index's 62 percent benchmark .IO62-CNI=SI gained $1.10 to $168.50.

Metal Bulletin's 62 percent gauge .IO62-CNO=MB rose $1.12 to $167.97.

In India, iron ore exports from the world's third-largest supplier fell for the eighth straight month in February as its key Karnataka state continued to ban shipments.

India's iron ore exports fell 18 percent to 85.43 million tonnes in April-February from a year ago and shipments are expected to fall again in March.

Iron ore supply from India are bound to get even tighter as it becomes more costly to ship the steelmaking material out of the country.

State-owned Indian Railways said it will impose a "busy season charge" of 7 percent on iron ore freight rates from April 1 to June 30, and from Oct. 1 to March 31.

India had hiked railway freight rates by 100 rupees to 1,600 rupees per tonne from March 3.

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