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Monday, March 28, 2011

JFE bullish on shipment outlook on strong Asia demand


Mon Mar 28, 2011 1:08pm GMT

* No plans to change H1 shipments forecast - JFE
* Expects H1 sales to top H2 sales of current fiscal year
* Carmakers' output halts could spur Japan steel exports
* METI skips April-June steel demand outlook after quake

(Recasts with JFE comment) TOKYO, March 28 - JFE Steel Corp (5411.T: Quote), the world's No.5 steelmaker, has no plan to change its strong sales outlook after April as robust demand in Asia will likely offset production loss at its domestic customers after the March 11 earthquake.

Japan's biggest ever earthquake, which has left more than 27,000 dead or missing, has caused production halts at a wide range of steel-user companies, including their biggest client Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T: Quote), raising concerns that steelmakers' shipments and earnings will take a hit.

"We still expect our April-September sales will likely exceed sales in the October-March period as Asia's demand remains strong, enough to offset the impact of the disaster," Hiroshi Maki, manager at JFE's sales, planning and coordination division, said on Monday.

JFE has yet to reveal its first-half output plans.

Its October-March production plans call for a 6.4 percent growth in steel shipments at 13.36 million tonnes over a year earlier, counting on higher exports to markets like South Korea, China and Taiwan.

Nippon Steel (5401.T: Quote), JFE and Sumitomo Metal Industries have resumed operations of all seven blast furnaces idled after the quake to cope with rising construction demand and also to increase power supply to the region's struggling electric power companies.

But confusion in distribution channels and shutdowns at carmakers could lead to higher inventories at steelmakers, prompting Nippon Steel and JFE to turn to export markets to make up for sluggish domestic demand.

Lost car production in Japan in the two weeks since the quake has topped a third of a million vehicles, and it could be months, rather than weeks, before the country's automakers get back on track.

Prolonged production delays at domestic steel-users would also make it hard for steelmakers to pass on higher input costs.

"What worries me most is user-companies' output plans," said Takashi Murata, an analyst at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets.

"It will be really tough for steelmakers to pass on higher input costs if their production lines are suspended."

Nippon Steel last month said it was seeking a roughly 25 percent price hike from domestic contract manufacturers after April to cover surging input costs.

Japan's trade ministry said on Monday it would not make its regular estimate on crude steel output for the April-June quarter due to production halts at firms such as carmakers.

An official from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said it had yet to finish surveying the impact of the quake, but added it may release a quarterly steel production forecast on May 9 as planned.

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