Ship Prices Decline as Much as 20% as Rates Plunge, HSBC Says

Tuesday, 07 February 2012

Ship prices fell as much as 20 percent in the last few weeks as the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of rates to transport dry-bulk commodities, plunged to a 25-year low, HSBC Holdings Plc said.Three dry-bulk vessels built since 2000 were reported as sold last week, setting benchmarks for lower prices, the bank’s London-based shipping-services division said in an e-mailed report.

“These levels, a drop of 10 percent to 20 percent since the end of last year, may not be good news to owners, but buyers will welcome the correction,” HSBC said. “Now there has been some action, we do expect others to follow suit, especially if more ships come on the market for sale.”

Prices may be set to decline further as potential buyers seek cash to purchase vessels amid constrained bank financing, according to the report. The index on Feb. 3 dropped to 647, the lowest level since August 1986, according to the Baltic Exchange, a London-based assessor of commodity-shipping costs. The gauge last climbed on Dec. 12. (sourced Bloomberg)

Dry bulk market showing signs of stronger recovery - Nikos Roussanoglou

Thursday, 10 March 11

The dry bulk market jumped by 3.37% yesterday, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), moving up to 1,472 points, levels not seen in weeks. The recovery was led by the Capesize market, which burst forward by an impressive 6.52%, with the Baltic Capesize Index reaching 1,699 points, finally surpassing the relative earnings of the much smaller in size Supramax ship type (1,512 points). As for the Panamax segment, it still “rules” the dry bulk market with the highest earnings, with the Baltic Panamax Index rising yesterday by 2.29% to 2,095 points.

According to Fearnley’s latest weekly report, in the capesize market, “both actual and nominal levels rising throughout the week, assisted by improving paper values and ever-increasing bunker prices. Considering the market remains massively overtonnaged, however, this appears more of a "dead cat bouncing" situation than the start of a fundamental recovery. Atlantic stands out as the most active/promising area, with genuine end-users to a large extent making up spot demand. Average tc-levels are up some 65% to come in at around usd 8k - which at least makes it worthwile to sail instead of drifting. Period fixing is limited to a handful of key players - levels varying considerably from usd 10k done on 16,4000 dwt/blt 1996 delivery China prompt for 4-6 months, to 180kdwt/blt 2010 fixing 4-6 months at usd 15k also basis delivery china prompt - the latter interestingly almost on par with 12 months concluded on 177kdwt/blt 2004 delivering end march for major miners” said the shipbroker.

Regarding the Panamax market, it mentioned that “after a slow last week the Panamax market took a clear turn this week. Fresh grain cargoes out of ECSA appeared and owners starting to ballast their vsls from Pacific in the same direction. Typical rates to secure ECSA grain business around 19,000/Day. Moreover, a more active period market with operators booking short period tonnage to cover grain business at levels rising from mid 17 towards the 19,000 mark. Atlantic still fine balanced and Continent tight for prompt tonnage with TA rounds fixed at 16-18k. The Pacific spot market not as enthusiastic. However, owners able to secure levels around the healthy mid teens. Propelled by the fresh grain orders, more active short period market and a slightly positive forward curve, nervousness turned into a growing positive sentiment. As the cape market also show signs of a recovery owners are raising their levels for longer periods. Takers are still reluctant though” the report noted.

In a separate weekly analysis by Commodore Research & Consultancy, “Chinese iron ore fixtures have remained low due the near record amount of iron ore that is stockpiled at Chinese ports. 21 vessels were reportedly chartered to export iron ore to China last week, 1 less than the previous week. Chinese thermal coal fixtures have also remained low in recent weeks due to robust port stockpiles, but a greater than usual amount of coal fixtures did come to the market last week. Chinese steel production could come under a small amount of near-term pressure due to falling prices and the continued surge in domestic steel stockpiles. Market sentiment inside and outside of China remains firm. Similarly, Commodore mentioned that coastal shipping rates continue to rebound, with rates to haul grain along the Chinese coast now finding support (only rates to ship coal were previously finding support).

Rates to haul coal continue to find the most support; rates to haul iron ore remain flat. Coastal rates to ship coal from Qinhuangdao (located in northeastern China) to Shanghai have increased to about $6.71/ton, an increase of $1.06 (19%) from a week ago. Rates to haul coal from Qinhuangdao to Zhejiang province (located directly south of Shanghai) have increased to $6.87/ton, an increase of $0.92 (15%) from a week ago” said Commodore.

Thermal coal demand remains firm and the 6 vessels chartered to ship thermal coal to China last week were up slightly from the trailing four-week average. On average, 4 vessels were chartered to export thermal coal to China during the weeks ending February 4 to February 25. A large amount of coal remains stockpiled at Qinhuangdao and other major Chinese coal ports which continues to result in Chinese thermal fixture volumes remaining much lower than the robust fixture activity seen in late November through early December.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

Tags : Qinhuangdao port, thermal coal shipment,

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Mixed fortunes for dry bulk owners this week - Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

Wednesday, 02 March 11

Although the dry bulk market has been on the positive side this week, things still look quite uncertain in the near term, with most owners puzzled as to what their next move should be in such a fluid market environment. Still, the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) managed to edge higher yesterday, ending the session up by 0.88% to 1.262 points. But the irregularities among the various sub-segments still are the new “regularities”, with Capesizes (larger ship sizes of 150,000 tons) still earning significantly lower daily income than their smaller counterparts. Up until recently, this had been the case with Panamaxes, with the gap among the two markets, now being among the largest recorded. But, the Supramaxes good fortunes during the past couple of weeks, has helped the even smaller and more flexible ships of this type, to edge forward and surpass even the Capesize segment. The relative Baltic Supramax market is now standing at 1,418 points (+1.43% on the day), versus just 1,314 points of the Baltic Capesize Index.

According to the latest weekly report from Shiptrade Services, on the capesize market iron ore majors are once again out of play this week with new cylcones hitting major ports in Australia. “As a result hardly any fixtures were concluded. The negative freight market, further burdened by the rising bunker prices is shrinking owners returns, who more
often than not have been considering pulling their vessels out of the market until the it picks up again. On the other hand the period market has been quite active this week with good returns, as a result, it often stands as a good alternative to owners” the shipbroker said.

Regarding the booming as of late Supramax market, it mentioned that “the sentiment was positive this week in the Mediterranean, mostly for trips to the US as well as the Continent as a result of fresh cargoes entering the market and a rush of activity deriving thereof. Rates in the Atlantic mainly stayed at similar levels to last week with little fresh enquiry recorded within the Atlantic. The Pacific continued its improvement this week with much activity being directed towards India. Rates have been rising in the spot market as a result. Here too the rise in the paper market has given rise to some significant gains in the short period rates. However many doubt the longevity of this positive sentiment” it said.

As for the Panamax market, it has softened in the Atlantic since last week, with grain demand noted then from the ECSA, now fading, thus resulting in dropped rates. “In the Pacific, the sentiment was mixed with few NOPAC round being concluded while rates hovered at similar levels to last week. On the other hand, the paper market firmed up giving rise to higher returns in the short period market. Finally, in the smaller HandySize market, no significant change has been recorded since last week. The Atlantic healed more or less steady with a generally balanced supply ratio. A spike of activity was seen in the Pacific for trips to the USG and ECSA boosting rates for backhaul trips by over 20% .

In terms of ship purchasing activity, Shiptrade noted that purchase interest has been reduced compared to the previous week. “The Asia markets are holding the leading position, followed by Greek and other markets. In the dry sector, purchase interest concentrated on Handysize, Handymax and Panamax vessels. Furthermore the market is still trying to find a consensus and an equilibrium point with regard to price estimation differences between what buyers are willing to pay for vessel acquisitions and on what levels sellers are willing to sell.

In this regard it would be helpful to mention that although for quite some time we have not witnessed a deal in the late nineties built handymaxes, market rumor has it that a large Japanese handymax bulk carrier built 1996 has been committed to Asian buyers, who were willing to pay a firm very high teens for her” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

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Dry bulk market keeps losing ground, Capesizes suffering - Nikos Roussanoglou,Hellenic Shipping

Thursday,Feb24, 2011

The dry bulk market lost further ground yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index was rapidly falling, ending the session down by 2.03% to 1,253 points. As has been the established trend so far this week, the bigger ships have been taking the biggest toll, with Capesizes losing 3.24 percent on the day to just 1,345 points (Baltic Capesize Index), with daily rates still below break-even point, while the Panamaxes have also seen thin demand, with the Baltic Panamax Index retreating yesterday by 3.86% to 1,845 points, which is still way above the capesize segment, in yet another odd signs of the current times. On the positive side, Supramax owners have been enjoying the current robust demand for their carriers, with their rates up by 1.91% on the day.

Commenting on the Capesize market, Fearnley’s latest weekly report said yesterday that although there was a little more activity last week, this has slowed down and rates have fallen slightly. This combined with increased bunker prices result in even lower returns for owners. Despite an increasing number of vessels not trading the oversupply is still the major problem, and with new cyclones hitting major loading ports in East Australia the market becomes even more frustrated. Presently owners are willing to fix out their tonnage at usd 16000 per day for 12-month period, which is a considerable premium over the spot market, but these are new record low levels for this kind of fixture.

On the Panamax front it mentioned that “the positive trend from last week gradually faded out, lead by lack of fresh USG/ECSA grain requirements in the Atlantic, a sliding forward curve followed by a falling period market in the Pacific. Despite prompt vessels under pressure still some healthy numbers achieved in the Atlantic; typically 25000 + 500BB for Fronthaul and mid teens for transatlantic rounds. The Pacific saw rates coming off significantly to lower teens for Nopac rounds and a growing spread between spot- and period rates.

Charterers and operators are holding back and reducing their activity. Takers for longer periods clearly stand off as the forward curve test very low teens and most Owners still hope for a recovery to do high teens for same. On a positive note there is growing local enthusiasm with the commencement of the Nordic World ski championships in Oslo” said the shipbroker.

Meanwhile, the container market has yet to “recover” on the news of Maersk’s huge newbuilding order for 10 firm plus 20 optional 18,000 TEU container vessels. AP Møller has been in talks with DSME regarding the 18,000 TEU design for quite some time, and now finally confirmed. According to AP Møller, these vessels will burn 35% less fuel per container compared to the more standard 13,000 TEU container vessels operating today. In another report on the newbuilding market, Clarksons said that with the holidays now firmly behind us we continue to see the yards reporting new business being concluded. “As previously discussed, container enquiries in particular look to be the leading factor in generating this momentum as dry and wet remains relatively stagnant. With the container story continuing to press forward - this is ultimately inhibiting the shipyards willing to push pricing on other sectors and attempt to bridge the bid offer spread, that continues to stifle the potential for further volume.

In the short term, we don't anticipate this dynamic to change - and yards will want to exploit the shipbuilding demand that exists outside of dry and wet - and try to extend their forward orderbook coverage and take the pressure off themselves to yield to what is a weaker demand story so far. In terms of reported business; In Dry, Hanjin Shipping have contracted a pair of 180,000dwt Capesize bulk carriers at Daehan, these are scheduled for delivery in 2012 and the reported price for these is USD58.5 Mill per vessel. In China meanwhile, it has been reported that Shanhaiguan have won an order from Greathorse Shipping Holdings for 4 option 4 x 76,000dwt panamax bulkers, with the firm vessels due to deliver in 2H 2012 and 1Q 2013. It is understood that these vessels may have been signed at the end of last year and are only fully coming to light now” said Clarksons.

Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping


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ANALYSIS-Small ships to unlock rate boon for bulk owners

Feb8, 2011 17:32 EST

By Krishna N Das and Jonathan Saul
BANGALORE/LONDON, Feb8(Reuters) – Dry cargo shippers with smaller vessels are shifting to more-risk, more-reward spot markets, eyeing rising demand for sugar and grains — commodities well suited to versatile supramax and handysize ships.
Ship owners generally prefer long-term charters in a weak market. The Baltic Dry Index <.BADI> o-year lows in recent weeks but confidence has been rocked by South Korean dry bulk group Korea Line Corp <005880.ks> filing for bankruptcy protection, highlighting the risk of charter-party defaults.
“Concerns now persist industry-wide, as speculation grows as to whether faults,” Deutsche Bank analyst Justin Yagerman said.
“Continued charterer defaults could bring into question many companies’ above-market charters.” Flooding in Australia, the world’s biggest coal exporter, and weather-srupted coal shipments and dented sentiment for capesize vessels — the giants of seaborne trade routes, typically hauling 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal.
Demand for grains, though, has soared. Wheat prices in the European Union, the world’s No.2 exporter, a year, aided by a Russian export ban due to drought and strong demand from North Africa and Middle East countries.
Global food prices, which hit their highest level on record last month, is a mounting worry for world leaders. Recent catastrophic weather around the globe could put yet more pressure on the cost of food, an issue that has already helped spark protests across the Middle East. Egypt is the world’s biggest wheat importer.
Eagle Bulk Shipping , which operates supramax vessels that typically have around half the capacity of a capesize, lowing them to haul a wider range of cargoes, has placed half its ships in the spot market.
That strategy has been welcomed by investors, and Eagle Bulk Shipping’s price-to-earnings ratio of almost 35 is the highest among its peers, Thomson Reuters StarMine data shows.
“We prefer smaller vessels due to the more favorable supply dynamics, more diverse cargo loading options, record spot fixture activity for the last five months due to a recovering worldwide economy, and the increasing ton-mile in the grain trade,” FBR analyst Doug Garber said in a note.
Genco Shipping and Trading could be another to gain from a near-term rebound in day rates — the cost of renting a ship by the day — as it has roughly half its 2011 days in open or linked-to-index charters.
Conversely, Diana Shipping , DryShips , Navios Maritime Partners LP and others whose fleets are dominated by bigger ships, have placed more vessels in long-term contracts, hoping for steady returns. Diana and DryShips trade at just above 5 and 8 times forward earnings, respectively.
Iron ore and coal are the main drivers of the dry bulk trade, accounting for some two-thirds of demand, but both are highly dependent on China, making the shippers that own bigger vessels more vulnerable to demand swings in the world’s biggest commodity consumer.
Sterne Agee expects Baltic Dry Index spot rates to drop 16 percent this year and 9 percent in 2012, noting these declines will be hardest felt by those owning capesizes, where fleet growth is seen at 17 percent this year and 14 percent in 2012.
For capesizes, the brokerage forecast a 25 percent fall in spot rates this year to below $25,000 a day. Only three years ago, owners of these vessels could charge day rates in excess of $100,000 a day.
Supramax rates are seen dropping about 7 percent to $20,845.
“The largest part of the order book concerns the larger ships, the capes. It is actually the capes that are of a bigger concern to everybody in the industry,” said Michael Bodouroglou, chairman and CEO of Greece’s Paragon Shipping Inc , which has smaller supramax and handymax vessels among its fleet.
“The panamaxes, the supramaxes and in particular the handies I think they will fare a lot better particularly in the second quarter which is the season where the grain trades pick up from South America etc — these are trades which are accommodated in the smaller sizes,” he told Reuters.
The Baltic capesize Index <.BACI> has fallen by two-thirds in the past 3 months to its lowest in more than 2 years. Rates for supramax vessels were faring slightly better, though the Baltic’s supramax index <.BASI> has dropped by a quarter in the last 3 weeks.
“In the next few months, a moderate amount of cargo demand is likely to continue to surface, which is likely to result in supramax and handysize rates remaining at healthy levels,” said Jeffrey Landsberg, managing director of dry bulk consultancy Commodore Research.
“Global grain demand remains strong and will lend support to rates once the South American export season kicks in to full gear.” (sourced:reuters)

Tags: coal, drybulk, grains, iron ore, shipping, dry cargo shippers, vessels, spot market, Supramaxes, Handysizes, The Baltic Supramax Index, The Baltic Dry Index, Eagel Bulk Shipping, FBR analyst, Genco Shipping, Conversely, Diana Shipping , DryShips, Navios Maritime Partners LP