Freight Markets could soften next week due to Japanese Ports closure and Libyan crisis -Vistaar

Mar21, 2011

The BDI was down by 1.98 pct (closing at 1531 points) mainly due to Cape index which was down by almost 11 pct and closed 1687 points.

The panama index was down by only 1.78 pct and closed at 2094 points. The Supramax and Handy size index were holding which was up by almost 3 pct and closed at 1574 points and 755 points respectively.

The Supramax vessels opening Feast/SE Asia region were seen fixed at healthy levels at around 16000 delivery N. China. The effects of 10-12 Japanese ports closure and the Libyan crisis will have an effect on shipping and it appears the markets could soften next week.

The average charter rates was at Cape/US$ 9369 per day , Panamax/US$ 16821 per day , Supramax/US$ 16458 per day and Handy size/US$ 11336 per day.

The Supramax index in the feast (S6 route) continued to be steady and was and was up by 1.28 pct (up by US$ 202 per day) and closed at US$ 15995 per day (last week US$ 15793 per day). The EC India/ China (S7 route) continued to softened and was down by 4.92 pct (down by US$ 825 per day) and closed at US$ 15938 per day (last week US$ 16763 per day). The S6 route is likely to continue to be steady/soft , whereas the S7 is likely to remain soft.

The futures for three years (2011-2013) was at around Cape/US$ 19000 per day, Panamax/US$ 16500 per day, Supramax/US$ 15000 per day , Handy size/US$ 11500 per day.

The congestion in EC Australia almost at same levels at 72 vessels this week (last week 81 vessels). The vessels waiting at main coal loading ports were at Hay point/5, DBCT/18, Gladstone/10, Abbot Point/1l, New Castle/36, Port Kembla/2 vessels. On the WC Australia iron ore vessels waiting reduced to 42 vessels (last week 61 vessels).

The waiting at Indian ports for coal vessels was quite normal.

The crude oil prices continued to be firm and closed at US$ 114.51 per barrel (last week US$ 113.47 per barrel). Bunker prices also firmed up during the week but closed lower US$ 643.00 pmt (last week US$ 638.50 pmt) for IFO 380 cst ex Singapore on 18th March 2011.

Click here for Vistaar’s forecasted (terms & conditions apply) spot freight rates for coal & Iron-ore cargo for specific routes (cs) Reported by Vistaar Shipping, Singapore

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Mixed fortunes for dry bulk owners this week - Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

Wednesday, 02 March 11

Although the dry bulk market has been on the positive side this week, things still look quite uncertain in the near term, with most owners puzzled as to what their next move should be in such a fluid market environment. Still, the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) managed to edge higher yesterday, ending the session up by 0.88% to 1.262 points. But the irregularities among the various sub-segments still are the new “regularities”, with Capesizes (larger ship sizes of 150,000 tons) still earning significantly lower daily income than their smaller counterparts. Up until recently, this had been the case with Panamaxes, with the gap among the two markets, now being among the largest recorded. But, the Supramaxes good fortunes during the past couple of weeks, has helped the even smaller and more flexible ships of this type, to edge forward and surpass even the Capesize segment. The relative Baltic Supramax market is now standing at 1,418 points (+1.43% on the day), versus just 1,314 points of the Baltic Capesize Index.

According to the latest weekly report from Shiptrade Services, on the capesize market iron ore majors are once again out of play this week with new cylcones hitting major ports in Australia. “As a result hardly any fixtures were concluded. The negative freight market, further burdened by the rising bunker prices is shrinking owners returns, who more
often than not have been considering pulling their vessels out of the market until the it picks up again. On the other hand the period market has been quite active this week with good returns, as a result, it often stands as a good alternative to owners” the shipbroker said.

Regarding the booming as of late Supramax market, it mentioned that “the sentiment was positive this week in the Mediterranean, mostly for trips to the US as well as the Continent as a result of fresh cargoes entering the market and a rush of activity deriving thereof. Rates in the Atlantic mainly stayed at similar levels to last week with little fresh enquiry recorded within the Atlantic. The Pacific continued its improvement this week with much activity being directed towards India. Rates have been rising in the spot market as a result. Here too the rise in the paper market has given rise to some significant gains in the short period rates. However many doubt the longevity of this positive sentiment” it said.

As for the Panamax market, it has softened in the Atlantic since last week, with grain demand noted then from the ECSA, now fading, thus resulting in dropped rates. “In the Pacific, the sentiment was mixed with few NOPAC round being concluded while rates hovered at similar levels to last week. On the other hand, the paper market firmed up giving rise to higher returns in the short period market. Finally, in the smaller HandySize market, no significant change has been recorded since last week. The Atlantic healed more or less steady with a generally balanced supply ratio. A spike of activity was seen in the Pacific for trips to the USG and ECSA boosting rates for backhaul trips by over 20% .

In terms of ship purchasing activity, Shiptrade noted that purchase interest has been reduced compared to the previous week. “The Asia markets are holding the leading position, followed by Greek and other markets. In the dry sector, purchase interest concentrated on Handysize, Handymax and Panamax vessels. Furthermore the market is still trying to find a consensus and an equilibrium point with regard to price estimation differences between what buyers are willing to pay for vessel acquisitions and on what levels sellers are willing to sell.

In this regard it would be helpful to mention that although for quite some time we have not witnessed a deal in the late nineties built handymaxes, market rumor has it that a large Japanese handymax bulk carrier built 1996 has been committed to Asian buyers, who were willing to pay a firm very high teens for her” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

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Supras are fixed at close to 10K trips via Indonesia to India with Coal -FEARNBULK

Thu,Feb24,2011

Handy

After a short lived surge in rates the Atlantic market has flattened out due to too many spot vessels. The USGulf has cooled down somewhat for trips within the Atlantic but there is demand for tonnage for trips east (mid 30´s). Supramaxes in West Africa/ECSA getting mid twenties for trips east.

Outlook: Flat. There is continued firm market in the Pacific region. Supras in North China are fixed at close to 10k for trips via Indonesia to India with coal. Supras on WC are getting at least $20k and EC rates have also improved to about 18k levels for iron ore trips to China. Many believe Indian iron ore would remain firm for few weeks.
Red Sea; ferts on handymax/ supras are fixed at high 20´s pmt on voyage bss to WC India. Not much seen on short period as rates are seen rising and now are at around usd 16k.

Panamax
The positive trend from last week gradually faded out, lead by lack of freshUSG/ECSA grain requirements in the Atlantic, a sliding forward curve followed by a falling period market in the Pacific. Despite prompt vessels under pressure still some healthy numbers achieved in the Atlantic; typically 25000 + 500BB for Fronthaul and mid teens for transatlantic rounds. The Pacific saw rates coming off significantly to lower teens for Nopac rounds and a growing spread between spot- and period rates. Charterers and operators are holding back and reducing their activity. Takers for longer periods clearly stand off as the forward curve test very low teens and most Owners still hope for a recovery to do high teens for same. On a positive note there is growing local enthusiasm with the commencement of the Nordic World ski championships in Oslo.

Capesize
Although there was a little more activity last week, this has slowed down and rates have fallen slightly. This combined with increased bunker prices result in even lower returns for owners. Despite an increasing number of vessels not trading the oversupply is still the major problem, and with new cyclones hitting major loading ports in East Australia the market becomes even more frustrated. Presently owners are willing to fix out their tonnage at usd 16000 per day for 12-month period, which is a considerable premium over the spot market, but these are new record low levels for this kind of fixture.

Tags:USG/ ECSA, vessels operators, Capesize, coal loading port,

Supramax market is improving in the pacific

Tuesday,22February,2011

BRS - A 10% rise in the BDI this week, mostly on the back of Panamax rates and improvements in the Supramax market in the Pacific. For the Capes, rates rose slightly but it was an inconclusive week. Adding to the uncertain situation in India, Chhattisgarh state, which produces around 20% of India's iron ore reserves, this week became the latest to threaten a possible ban on exports after the state’s chief minister appealed to the Indian prime minister. The region has only one ore miner, state-owned NMDC, so a decision on a ban would have to be made by the federal government. Karnataka’s ban on exports from private firms is currently being appealed in the Supreme Court, but has already resulted in a significant drop in exports from the country.

Capesize
Although Chinese New Year is now well and truly behind us, there has yet to be a significant recovery in Capesize rates. Rates rose Friday to Friday but started another downward slide towards the end of the week. At US$ 6,620 per day on Friday, the 4TC is still lower than rates before the holiday. Widespread tonnage availability continues to be the main issue, particularly in the Pacific, and the only route to show any real rate increase was Brazil-China. There was no period activity to report, and in the FFA market Q2 has now dropped from US$ 21,000 levels to US$ 17,500. The BCI recorded another drop on Monday.

Panamax
The Panamax market this week continued in the same vein as last week, boosted by a firm Indian market; the 4TC average closed on Friday at US$ 16,000 per day, up US$3,000 compared to a week ago. The route paying the most was the WCI/ China trade where a standard Tess 74 managed to fix at US$ 22/23,000 per day. The Nopac itself was closer to US$15,000/ day, representing an increase of around US$ 4,000 compared to last week’s level. The India buzz had an impact on TA round rates and especially in the ECSA area. But by the end of the week we noted a decrease in activity, with a still quiet ECSA grain export market and high ship availability. The TA round ended the week at US$15/16,000 per day. Period wise, numbers increased as well and operators were taking ships in at around US$18,000 per day ie an increase of US$2,000 compared to the previous week.

Supramax/Handy
The Baltic Supramax Index has continued to rise throughout the week as activity picks up steadily after the Chinese New Year. Despite this rise, one wonders whether the improvements will last. The BSI gained 113 points to finish at 1,267 points last week, while the average of the time charter average gained US$1,184 to finish at US$13,247. The USG and NCSA were the most active areas, and modern Supras were fixed at in the low/ mid US$20,000s back to the Continent/Med. Supras were paid around US$25,000 for delivery west coast central America. The Continent has also been active with fixtures reported to various destinations including the Far East in the very high US$10,000s, and a couple of laden legs within the Atlantic in the mid US$10,000s. Little emerged from South America on the Supras. The Baltic has also been on the rise for smaller sizes and the BHSI gained 19 points last week to finish at 670, while the average of the time charter gained US$304 to finish at US$9,906. East coast South America has been more active mainly with grain fixtures to the Continent and Mediterranean in the mid to mid/high US$10,000s depending on vessel age. From north coast South America vessels were fixed at US$15,000 for Continent redelivery and modern Handies were rumoured fixed at US$10,000 from the eastern Med to west Africa. Modern Supras were fixed in the mid US$10,000s level for 4-6 months period with delivery Far East. The Pacific was also on the rise with Supramaxes ex Japan to Australia/Nopac gaining US$2,386 to end the week at US$10,791. Supras open in China for a trip to Indonesia with redelivery India were paid a touch below US$10,000.

Source: Barry Rogliano Salles
Tags: FFA market, The Panamax 4TC, The Panamax index, The Baltic Supramax Index, The BSI, vessels, Global freight rates, Indonesia, India, China, America, Africa

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ANALYSIS-Small ships to unlock rate boon for bulk owners

Feb8, 2011 17:32 EST

By Krishna N Das and Jonathan Saul
BANGALORE/LONDON, Feb8(Reuters) – Dry cargo shippers with smaller vessels are shifting to more-risk, more-reward spot markets, eyeing rising demand for sugar and grains — commodities well suited to versatile supramax and handysize ships.
Ship owners generally prefer long-term charters in a weak market. The Baltic Dry Index <.BADI> o-year lows in recent weeks but confidence has been rocked by South Korean dry bulk group Korea Line Corp <005880.ks> filing for bankruptcy protection, highlighting the risk of charter-party defaults.
“Concerns now persist industry-wide, as speculation grows as to whether faults,” Deutsche Bank analyst Justin Yagerman said.
“Continued charterer defaults could bring into question many companies’ above-market charters.” Flooding in Australia, the world’s biggest coal exporter, and weather-srupted coal shipments and dented sentiment for capesize vessels — the giants of seaborne trade routes, typically hauling 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal.
Demand for grains, though, has soared. Wheat prices in the European Union, the world’s No.2 exporter, a year, aided by a Russian export ban due to drought and strong demand from North Africa and Middle East countries.
Global food prices, which hit their highest level on record last month, is a mounting worry for world leaders. Recent catastrophic weather around the globe could put yet more pressure on the cost of food, an issue that has already helped spark protests across the Middle East. Egypt is the world’s biggest wheat importer.
Eagle Bulk Shipping , which operates supramax vessels that typically have around half the capacity of a capesize, lowing them to haul a wider range of cargoes, has placed half its ships in the spot market.
That strategy has been welcomed by investors, and Eagle Bulk Shipping’s price-to-earnings ratio of almost 35 is the highest among its peers, Thomson Reuters StarMine data shows.
“We prefer smaller vessels due to the more favorable supply dynamics, more diverse cargo loading options, record spot fixture activity for the last five months due to a recovering worldwide economy, and the increasing ton-mile in the grain trade,” FBR analyst Doug Garber said in a note.
Genco Shipping and Trading could be another to gain from a near-term rebound in day rates — the cost of renting a ship by the day — as it has roughly half its 2011 days in open or linked-to-index charters.
Conversely, Diana Shipping , DryShips , Navios Maritime Partners LP and others whose fleets are dominated by bigger ships, have placed more vessels in long-term contracts, hoping for steady returns. Diana and DryShips trade at just above 5 and 8 times forward earnings, respectively.
Iron ore and coal are the main drivers of the dry bulk trade, accounting for some two-thirds of demand, but both are highly dependent on China, making the shippers that own bigger vessels more vulnerable to demand swings in the world’s biggest commodity consumer.
Sterne Agee expects Baltic Dry Index spot rates to drop 16 percent this year and 9 percent in 2012, noting these declines will be hardest felt by those owning capesizes, where fleet growth is seen at 17 percent this year and 14 percent in 2012.
For capesizes, the brokerage forecast a 25 percent fall in spot rates this year to below $25,000 a day. Only three years ago, owners of these vessels could charge day rates in excess of $100,000 a day.
Supramax rates are seen dropping about 7 percent to $20,845.
“The largest part of the order book concerns the larger ships, the capes. It is actually the capes that are of a bigger concern to everybody in the industry,” said Michael Bodouroglou, chairman and CEO of Greece’s Paragon Shipping Inc , which has smaller supramax and handymax vessels among its fleet.
“The panamaxes, the supramaxes and in particular the handies I think they will fare a lot better particularly in the second quarter which is the season where the grain trades pick up from South America etc — these are trades which are accommodated in the smaller sizes,” he told Reuters.
The Baltic capesize Index <.BACI> has fallen by two-thirds in the past 3 months to its lowest in more than 2 years. Rates for supramax vessels were faring slightly better, though the Baltic’s supramax index <.BASI> has dropped by a quarter in the last 3 weeks.
“In the next few months, a moderate amount of cargo demand is likely to continue to surface, which is likely to result in supramax and handysize rates remaining at healthy levels,” said Jeffrey Landsberg, managing director of dry bulk consultancy Commodore Research.
“Global grain demand remains strong and will lend support to rates once the South American export season kicks in to full gear.” (sourced:reuters)

Tags: coal, drybulk, grains, iron ore, shipping, dry cargo shippers, vessels, spot market, Supramaxes, Handysizes, The Baltic Supramax Index, The Baltic Dry Index, Eagel Bulk Shipping, FBR analyst, Genco Shipping, Conversely, Diana Shipping , DryShips, Navios Maritime Partners LP

THE FUTURES FOR 2011-2013 WAS AT AROUND US$ 16,500 & US$ 15,000 PANAMAX & SUPRAMAX PER DAY RESPECTIVELY

Sunday, 06 February 11
With the Chinese new year holidays this week, the market has been fairly quite as expected.
The BDI saw a bigger drop compared to last week and was down by about 8 pct and closed at 1,043 points. It will be interesting to see if the BDI will go below 1,000 points. But seems the BDI has almost bottomed out and may not go down much.
The Cape index also was down by about 5 pct and closed at 1,299 points, with the average charter rate at all time low at US$ 5,161 per day. The Panamax index was almost steady and was up just by about 1 pct and closed at 1,348 points. Supramax and Handy size index was also down by about 10 pct and closed at 1,090 points and 643 points respectively.
The cyclonic weather in Queensland and shippers declaring force majeure the situation has added to the market woes. The situation is expected to return to normal in about a week time.
The average charter rates was at Cape/US$ 5,161 per day , Panamax/US$ 10,786 per day , Supramax/US$ 11,398 per day and Handy size/US$ 9,422 per day.
The Supramax index in the feast (S6 route) was down by US$ 404 per day (down by 5.23 pct) and closed at US$ 7,310 per day (last week US$ 7,714 per day). The EC India/ China (S7 route) was down by 128 points (up by 1.11 pct) and closed at US$ 11,370 per day (last week US$ 11,498 per day). The S6 route is likely to be steady/soft next week.
According to Vistaar singapore, the futures for three years (2011-2013) was at around Cape/US$ 20,000 per day, Panamax/US$ 16,500 per day, Supramax/US$ 15,000 per day , Handy size/US$ 10,750 per day.
The congestion in EC Australia was almost same at 107 vessels this week (last week 106 vessels). The vessels waiting at main coal loading ports were at Hay point/17, DBCT/33, Gladstone/10, Abbot Point/2, New Castle/39, Port Kembla/4 vessels. On the WC Australia iron ore vessels waiting increased to 45 vessels (last week 31 vessels).
The waiting at Indian ports for coal vessels was quite normal except for Paradip, Haldia, Kandla where the berthing delays was high with berthing delays of about 10/12 days.
The crude prices firmed up mainly due to Egyptian crisis and Brent crude prices was at US$ 100.12 per barrel (last week US$ 99.31 per barrel). Bunker prices also firmed up sharply and was at US$ 582.00 pmt (last week US$ 552.00 pmt) for IFO 380 cst ex Singapore on 4th Feb 2011.
Reported by Vistaar Shipping, Singapore
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DRY BULK RATES CONTINUED TO TUMBLE LAST WEEK - BRS

Tuesday, 25 January 11

With weather-related problems affecting the short-term outlook, and new building deliveries the longer-term picture, dry bulk rates continued to tumble last week and the BDI and Capesize 4TC are now at their lowest levels for 2 years. Thursday saw the BDI bottom out at 1,438 points, a result mainly of softness in the Cape market. Rising commodity prices indicate there is still good demand for product, which suggests new building deliveries are the main issue affecting rates. After two weeks of 2011, 20 new Capes have been delivered, 9 Panamaxes, 28 Supramaxes, and 21 Handysizes, indicating the pace of delivery is increasing. In the FFA market, 2H 2011 is now trading at around US$21,000 per day compared to US$24,000 six months ago.

Capesize

Another period of softening rates in the Cape market, and the BCI lost a further 15% or 270 points Friday-to-Friday. The Cape 4TC, at just under US$9,700, is now below the time charter equivalent for all the other bulk sizes. Players reported a sharp drop in Australian business, with coal operations still disrupted due to weather factors, and a lacklustre demand for ore. In the period market, it was reported that a 161,000 tonner was taken for 3-5 months at US$13,000 per day. However the sole one-year charter was signed at a BCI index-linked rate. On Monday however the BCI lost just 5 points, raising hopes among owners that the market may be bottoming out.

Panamax

The Panamax 4TC average stayed flat this week and hovered between US$15,300 and US$15,400 per day. However the two basins went in opposite directions. The Pacific showed some resistance due to the number of ballasters going to the USG and ECSA, and ships caught in the congestion in Queensland created some opportunities for the other vessels. The Nopac route gained US$500 and closed the week at US$10,000 per day. West of Suez, in the Atlantic, the market eased by US$1,000 as very few fresh requirements hit the market and the fleet supply end Jan was growing day by day. Regarding the period market, all major operators were quiet and the few ships which went on short period for delivery China or India were getting fixed at US$16,500 per day.

Supramax/Handy

The Baltic Supramax Index has shown a few signs of recovery with most of the routes following a slight upward trend. Delays in the southern part of the Atlantic due to bad weather/congestion have resulted in charterers having to come on the market looking for substitute vessels, of which very few are available. The Baltic gained 48 points to finish at 1,393 points last week, while the average of the TC routes gained US$506 to finish at US$14,570. The US Gulf and the Continent were the drivers of the Atlantic where fewer fixtures were seen from East Coast South America. A Supra delivery west Africa for a trip via Brazil/ Argentina to the Singapore/Japan range was rumoured to have fixed at US$24,000 dop. From the USG, modern Supras were fixed to the Continent around the mid US$20,000s, and to the Singapore/Japan range in the low/ mid to mid US$30,000s. For the smaller sizes, the trend of the Baltic Handysize index has been steady, finishing at 765 points with no difference noted as it had started at 765 points. Only the TC Handysize average showed very minor signs of improvement, as it gained US$25 to finish the week at US$11,129 per day.

For Handies, the driver has been East Coast South America which has been more active than the US Gulf or the Continent (which has seen a few scrap orders back to the east Med), and the Black Sea which remains silent. A couple of Modern Supramaxes ex Far East for 2-4 month periods were fixed between US$12-13,000. The Pacific has continued to weaken with Supramaxes being fixed for backhauls at around US$7,000 ex Taiwan, while ex Japan to Australia/Nopac were fixed around US$7,500.

Source: Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS)