Baltic index higher, capesizes at over 1-yr high

Monday, 12 December 2011

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates to ship dry commodities, rose for a third day on Friday helped by firm iron ore trade to China with earnings for the larger capesizes jumping to their highest in over a year.
Nevertheless, the shipping sector is expected to see more turmoil in coming months as a supply glut and growing economic gloom keep earnings under pressure with growing worries over the outlook for Chinese raw materials demand.

The overall index rose 40 points or 2.13 percent to 1,922 points.
"Despite the demand headwinds from muted steel production in China and slowing industrial production, the capesize segment has been remarkably resilient. Mix of factors including higher port congestion, recovery in coal exports from Australia and increasing Chinese iron ore imports from Brazil, aiding tonne mile have supported the segment," RS Platou Markets said.

"Declining steel output and slowing industrial production remains a key challenge going into 2012 for dry bulk demand and we still expect rates to see a gradual decline."
China's industrial output growth hit its slowest pace in more than two years in November and inflation tumbled as economic conditions deteriorated, raising expectations Beijing will ease monetary policy again.

Iron ore shipments account for around a third of seaborne volumes on the larger capesizes, and brokers said price developments remained a key factor for dry freight.
Shanghai rebar futures dropped for a second day on Friday, weighed down by a weak outlook for steel demand in top market China after fresh data suggested the Chinese economy was cooling off rapidly, although hopes of further monetary easing capped losses.

Capesizes, which typically transport 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, had driven a recent rally, helped by firmer coal and iron ore exports from Australia and Brazil to China as well as a pick-up in Japanese coal imports. A build-up of port congestion also provided support.
The Baltic's capesize index rose 4.76 percent on Friday, with average daily earnings rising to $32,617 and at their highest since November 2010.

In August, the overall index, which gauges the cost of shipping commodities including iron ore, coal and grain, fell for 18 consecutive sessions and reached its lowest in more than three months. It has remained erratic and is still down over 12 percent from the same period last year.

The Baltic's panamax index rose 1.18 percent. Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually transport 60,000-70,000 tonne cargoes of coal or grains, reached $$13,682.
"In the Pacific, the Christmas holiday lull is biting further and business conditions have continued to slow, with much of owners' focus on securing sufficient employment duration to see their (panamax) vessels past the holiday period," broker Braemar Seascope said. "The outlook for the remainder of the year is still flat/negative."

Growing ship supply, which is outpacing commodity demand, is set to cap dry bulk freight rate gains in the coming months, with economic uncertainty and a slowdown in China adding to headwinds.
Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering said on Friday it had lost an order from a European customer, including two dry bulk vessels, worth over half a billion dollars in a sign of worsening conditions in the seaborne sector and a growing euro zone lending squeeze.

Source: Reuters

Freight Markets could soften next week due to Japanese Ports closure and Libyan crisis -Vistaar

Mar21, 2011

The BDI was down by 1.98 pct (closing at 1531 points) mainly due to Cape index which was down by almost 11 pct and closed 1687 points.

The panama index was down by only 1.78 pct and closed at 2094 points. The Supramax and Handy size index were holding which was up by almost 3 pct and closed at 1574 points and 755 points respectively.

The Supramax vessels opening Feast/SE Asia region were seen fixed at healthy levels at around 16000 delivery N. China. The effects of 10-12 Japanese ports closure and the Libyan crisis will have an effect on shipping and it appears the markets could soften next week.

The average charter rates was at Cape/US$ 9369 per day , Panamax/US$ 16821 per day , Supramax/US$ 16458 per day and Handy size/US$ 11336 per day.

The Supramax index in the feast (S6 route) continued to be steady and was and was up by 1.28 pct (up by US$ 202 per day) and closed at US$ 15995 per day (last week US$ 15793 per day). The EC India/ China (S7 route) continued to softened and was down by 4.92 pct (down by US$ 825 per day) and closed at US$ 15938 per day (last week US$ 16763 per day). The S6 route is likely to continue to be steady/soft , whereas the S7 is likely to remain soft.

The futures for three years (2011-2013) was at around Cape/US$ 19000 per day, Panamax/US$ 16500 per day, Supramax/US$ 15000 per day , Handy size/US$ 11500 per day.

The congestion in EC Australia almost at same levels at 72 vessels this week (last week 81 vessels). The vessels waiting at main coal loading ports were at Hay point/5, DBCT/18, Gladstone/10, Abbot Point/1l, New Castle/36, Port Kembla/2 vessels. On the WC Australia iron ore vessels waiting reduced to 42 vessels (last week 61 vessels).

The waiting at Indian ports for coal vessels was quite normal.

The crude oil prices continued to be firm and closed at US$ 114.51 per barrel (last week US$ 113.47 per barrel). Bunker prices also firmed up during the week but closed lower US$ 643.00 pmt (last week US$ 638.50 pmt) for IFO 380 cst ex Singapore on 18th March 2011.

Click here for Vistaar’s forecasted (terms & conditions apply) spot freight rates for coal & Iron-ore cargo for specific routes (cs) Reported by Vistaar Shipping, Singapore

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Mixed fortunes for dry bulk owners this week - Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

Wednesday, 02 March 11

Although the dry bulk market has been on the positive side this week, things still look quite uncertain in the near term, with most owners puzzled as to what their next move should be in such a fluid market environment. Still, the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) managed to edge higher yesterday, ending the session up by 0.88% to 1.262 points. But the irregularities among the various sub-segments still are the new “regularities”, with Capesizes (larger ship sizes of 150,000 tons) still earning significantly lower daily income than their smaller counterparts. Up until recently, this had been the case with Panamaxes, with the gap among the two markets, now being among the largest recorded. But, the Supramaxes good fortunes during the past couple of weeks, has helped the even smaller and more flexible ships of this type, to edge forward and surpass even the Capesize segment. The relative Baltic Supramax market is now standing at 1,418 points (+1.43% on the day), versus just 1,314 points of the Baltic Capesize Index.

According to the latest weekly report from Shiptrade Services, on the capesize market iron ore majors are once again out of play this week with new cylcones hitting major ports in Australia. “As a result hardly any fixtures were concluded. The negative freight market, further burdened by the rising bunker prices is shrinking owners returns, who more
often than not have been considering pulling their vessels out of the market until the it picks up again. On the other hand the period market has been quite active this week with good returns, as a result, it often stands as a good alternative to owners” the shipbroker said.

Regarding the booming as of late Supramax market, it mentioned that “the sentiment was positive this week in the Mediterranean, mostly for trips to the US as well as the Continent as a result of fresh cargoes entering the market and a rush of activity deriving thereof. Rates in the Atlantic mainly stayed at similar levels to last week with little fresh enquiry recorded within the Atlantic. The Pacific continued its improvement this week with much activity being directed towards India. Rates have been rising in the spot market as a result. Here too the rise in the paper market has given rise to some significant gains in the short period rates. However many doubt the longevity of this positive sentiment” it said.

As for the Panamax market, it has softened in the Atlantic since last week, with grain demand noted then from the ECSA, now fading, thus resulting in dropped rates. “In the Pacific, the sentiment was mixed with few NOPAC round being concluded while rates hovered at similar levels to last week. On the other hand, the paper market firmed up giving rise to higher returns in the short period market. Finally, in the smaller HandySize market, no significant change has been recorded since last week. The Atlantic healed more or less steady with a generally balanced supply ratio. A spike of activity was seen in the Pacific for trips to the USG and ECSA boosting rates for backhaul trips by over 20% .

In terms of ship purchasing activity, Shiptrade noted that purchase interest has been reduced compared to the previous week. “The Asia markets are holding the leading position, followed by Greek and other markets. In the dry sector, purchase interest concentrated on Handysize, Handymax and Panamax vessels. Furthermore the market is still trying to find a consensus and an equilibrium point with regard to price estimation differences between what buyers are willing to pay for vessel acquisitions and on what levels sellers are willing to sell.

In this regard it would be helpful to mention that although for quite some time we have not witnessed a deal in the late nineties built handymaxes, market rumor has it that a large Japanese handymax bulk carrier built 1996 has been committed to Asian buyers, who were willing to pay a firm very high teens for her” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

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THE FUTURES FOR 2011-2013 WAS AT AROUND US$ 16,500 & US$ 15,000 PANAMAX & SUPRAMAX PER DAY RESPECTIVELY

Sunday, 06 February 11
With the Chinese new year holidays this week, the market has been fairly quite as expected.
The BDI saw a bigger drop compared to last week and was down by about 8 pct and closed at 1,043 points. It will be interesting to see if the BDI will go below 1,000 points. But seems the BDI has almost bottomed out and may not go down much.
The Cape index also was down by about 5 pct and closed at 1,299 points, with the average charter rate at all time low at US$ 5,161 per day. The Panamax index was almost steady and was up just by about 1 pct and closed at 1,348 points. Supramax and Handy size index was also down by about 10 pct and closed at 1,090 points and 643 points respectively.
The cyclonic weather in Queensland and shippers declaring force majeure the situation has added to the market woes. The situation is expected to return to normal in about a week time.
The average charter rates was at Cape/US$ 5,161 per day , Panamax/US$ 10,786 per day , Supramax/US$ 11,398 per day and Handy size/US$ 9,422 per day.
The Supramax index in the feast (S6 route) was down by US$ 404 per day (down by 5.23 pct) and closed at US$ 7,310 per day (last week US$ 7,714 per day). The EC India/ China (S7 route) was down by 128 points (up by 1.11 pct) and closed at US$ 11,370 per day (last week US$ 11,498 per day). The S6 route is likely to be steady/soft next week.
According to Vistaar singapore, the futures for three years (2011-2013) was at around Cape/US$ 20,000 per day, Panamax/US$ 16,500 per day, Supramax/US$ 15,000 per day , Handy size/US$ 10,750 per day.
The congestion in EC Australia was almost same at 107 vessels this week (last week 106 vessels). The vessels waiting at main coal loading ports were at Hay point/17, DBCT/33, Gladstone/10, Abbot Point/2, New Castle/39, Port Kembla/4 vessels. On the WC Australia iron ore vessels waiting increased to 45 vessels (last week 31 vessels).
The waiting at Indian ports for coal vessels was quite normal except for Paradip, Haldia, Kandla where the berthing delays was high with berthing delays of about 10/12 days.
The crude prices firmed up mainly due to Egyptian crisis and Brent crude prices was at US$ 100.12 per barrel (last week US$ 99.31 per barrel). Bunker prices also firmed up sharply and was at US$ 582.00 pmt (last week US$ 552.00 pmt) for IFO 380 cst ex Singapore on 4th Feb 2011.
Reported by Vistaar Shipping, Singapore
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