The Panamax market this week firmed up - BRS

Tuesday, 08 March 2011

Underlining the unpredictability of the current market, rates for all dry bulk segments swung up again last week. Stronger exports out of South America lifted the smaller sizes, while better transatlantic demand pushed Cape rates up.

In the iron ore segment, a short-term surge in demand seems possible after India imposed new export taxes on the commodity. The Federation of Indian Mineral Industries said it expected ore exports to fall between 30-35% a year as a result. Nearly all of India’s iron ore shipments are destined for China, and it is expected there could be a rush of Chinese buying before the tax is imposed on April 1. So far, existing contracts out of India are being honoured, but with next to no fresh contracts being signed, the impact of the change is likely to be more obvious next month.

Supramax/Handy

The Supramax market continued its upward trend from the previous week, and the BSI gained 6% to reach a TC average of US$15,340 by Friday. The increase was much stronger in the Pacific basin than in the Atlantic, and the NOPAC round gained 13% to reach about US$15,500 by the end of the week. Despite better market conditions in the Pacific, owners with Supras in the Atlantic were reluctant to fix them for a trip out. The market in the Continent was strong thanks to scrap and fertilizer orders, Supras getting about US$20,000 for a trip with scrap from Cont/Baltic with redelivery east Med, and the same level was fixed for dop Continent and redelivery China via the Cape of Good Hope. The US Gulf market remained stable with Supras getting fixed at US$24,000 basis dop USG and redelivery Skaw/Passero range, whereas USG to the East was fixed in the low US$30,000s per day. The Pacific market started strong, with index type Supras getting mid teens for Pacific rounds, while India positioned ships were fixing at similar levels out of the west coast, and mid/high teens out of the east. Rates steadily picked up towards the end of the week (due to tonnage getting tight for mid March dates), while a flurry of fixing resulted in ships in the Far East getting closer to high teens for Pacific rounds. West coast India to China was fixing in the mid/ high teens, and east coast India remained at similar levels. Backhaul on Supras climbed to close to US$10,000, up from around US$7-8,000. Short period was around mid to mid/high teens, depending on specs and position, and this remained steady all week.

Panamax
The Panamax market this week firmed up in all basins, with a week-on-week increase of over US$1,000 in the Atlantic to reach US$16,000 per day, and more than US$1,500 in the Pacific, to close at US$14,800 per day, pushing the 4TC average to US$16,000 per day. These trends were against a pretty high global offering of tonnage (especially in the Atlantic), except in the Indian Ocean which was clearly under pressure due to a lack of candidates able to carry iron ore to China, or to ballast to pick up grains for China via ECSA. This route was paying around US$19,000 per day for delivery India. Period activity, linked to the firmer FFA market, increased by US$1,000 per day ie around US$18,000 per day on a TESS 74 delivery Far East for short period.

Capesize
An 8% increase in the BCI this week, with greater activity in the Atlantic pushing rates. The BCI finished on Friday at 1,427 points, while the time charter average limped above US$5,700 per day. The prospects of more activity out of Australia gave some small confidence to the market, and April and May FFA rates rose to US$14,500 and US$16,400 respectively. Monday saw another US1,000 added to the 4TC, which suggests greater confidence for the week ahead, though which the current volatility there seems to be no certainty it will last.
Reported by - Barry Rogliano Salles

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Iron ore from India has been quit

Friday, 04 March 11

Handy

Activity has been gradually rising in the Atlantic but it is mostly confined to the USG market. Short period basis redelivery Atlantic has been reportedly done at usd 24,000 pd delivery USG. The Cont/Bsea remain quiet with little activity which is forcing tonnage to ballast towards Gib. Many Owners are still reluctant to trade Suez or Aden. A 50kdwt blt 03 was reportedly fixed at around usd 20k pd dely Cont via CGH to FEast. Mkt remained firm in Pac. Supras in North China are fixed at close to 15k for trips via Indo to India with coal. Iron ore from India has been quiet with recent 20% export tax and mkt looks uncertain. Supras on WCI and ECI close to 17k for trips to China. On Richards Bay rnds supras now seeing around mid-teens. Red Sea, ferts on hmax/ supras are fixed at very high 20´s pmt on voy bss to WCIndia. Owns have been rating close to mid 30s due to increased piracy threat and bunker prices. Not much seen on short period as rates are seen rising and now around usd 17k.

Panamax
With lack of fresh grain business from USG or ECSA the sentiment is looking bit toppish leading to a slow decline in rates and interest for period. In the USG/ECSA area a majority of March cargoes seems to be fixed adding pressure to the Fronthaul rates. Mid week fixtures for same in the 25,000 + 600,000 GBB area. Atlantic business after a fairly steady week also under pressure with oversupply of spot tonnage still levels hovering around 15,000/Day. In the Pacific rounds fixed at USD 13,500 levels and some healthy fixtures for ECSA rounds still reported at high teens basis India-SE Asia delivery. Short Period fixed at 17,500, and 1 yr at 16,000 prompt delivery Far East.

Capesize
Two months into 2011 and we see the full effect of the sad reality describing the cape market. Last week bunker prices made a big jump,resulting in slightly improved rates but even more ships at anchor. West australia round is presently between USD 6.50 and 7 pmt, whilst fronthaul remaining steady around low USD 18. A lack of cargoes around and more tonnage coming suggesting the present poor market to continue for some time. (sourced:Fearnbul)

Mixed fortunes for dry bulk owners this week - Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

Wednesday, 02 March 11

Although the dry bulk market has been on the positive side this week, things still look quite uncertain in the near term, with most owners puzzled as to what their next move should be in such a fluid market environment. Still, the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) managed to edge higher yesterday, ending the session up by 0.88% to 1.262 points. But the irregularities among the various sub-segments still are the new “regularities”, with Capesizes (larger ship sizes of 150,000 tons) still earning significantly lower daily income than their smaller counterparts. Up until recently, this had been the case with Panamaxes, with the gap among the two markets, now being among the largest recorded. But, the Supramaxes good fortunes during the past couple of weeks, has helped the even smaller and more flexible ships of this type, to edge forward and surpass even the Capesize segment. The relative Baltic Supramax market is now standing at 1,418 points (+1.43% on the day), versus just 1,314 points of the Baltic Capesize Index.

According to the latest weekly report from Shiptrade Services, on the capesize market iron ore majors are once again out of play this week with new cylcones hitting major ports in Australia. “As a result hardly any fixtures were concluded. The negative freight market, further burdened by the rising bunker prices is shrinking owners returns, who more
often than not have been considering pulling their vessels out of the market until the it picks up again. On the other hand the period market has been quite active this week with good returns, as a result, it often stands as a good alternative to owners” the shipbroker said.

Regarding the booming as of late Supramax market, it mentioned that “the sentiment was positive this week in the Mediterranean, mostly for trips to the US as well as the Continent as a result of fresh cargoes entering the market and a rush of activity deriving thereof. Rates in the Atlantic mainly stayed at similar levels to last week with little fresh enquiry recorded within the Atlantic. The Pacific continued its improvement this week with much activity being directed towards India. Rates have been rising in the spot market as a result. Here too the rise in the paper market has given rise to some significant gains in the short period rates. However many doubt the longevity of this positive sentiment” it said.

As for the Panamax market, it has softened in the Atlantic since last week, with grain demand noted then from the ECSA, now fading, thus resulting in dropped rates. “In the Pacific, the sentiment was mixed with few NOPAC round being concluded while rates hovered at similar levels to last week. On the other hand, the paper market firmed up giving rise to higher returns in the short period market. Finally, in the smaller HandySize market, no significant change has been recorded since last week. The Atlantic healed more or less steady with a generally balanced supply ratio. A spike of activity was seen in the Pacific for trips to the USG and ECSA boosting rates for backhaul trips by over 20% .

In terms of ship purchasing activity, Shiptrade noted that purchase interest has been reduced compared to the previous week. “The Asia markets are holding the leading position, followed by Greek and other markets. In the dry sector, purchase interest concentrated on Handysize, Handymax and Panamax vessels. Furthermore the market is still trying to find a consensus and an equilibrium point with regard to price estimation differences between what buyers are willing to pay for vessel acquisitions and on what levels sellers are willing to sell.

In this regard it would be helpful to mention that although for quite some time we have not witnessed a deal in the late nineties built handymaxes, market rumor has it that a large Japanese handymax bulk carrier built 1996 has been committed to Asian buyers, who were willing to pay a firm very high teens for her” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

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DRY BULK RATES CONTINUED TO TUMBLE LAST WEEK - BRS

Tuesday, 25 January 11

With weather-related problems affecting the short-term outlook, and new building deliveries the longer-term picture, dry bulk rates continued to tumble last week and the BDI and Capesize 4TC are now at their lowest levels for 2 years. Thursday saw the BDI bottom out at 1,438 points, a result mainly of softness in the Cape market. Rising commodity prices indicate there is still good demand for product, which suggests new building deliveries are the main issue affecting rates. After two weeks of 2011, 20 new Capes have been delivered, 9 Panamaxes, 28 Supramaxes, and 21 Handysizes, indicating the pace of delivery is increasing. In the FFA market, 2H 2011 is now trading at around US$21,000 per day compared to US$24,000 six months ago.

Capesize

Another period of softening rates in the Cape market, and the BCI lost a further 15% or 270 points Friday-to-Friday. The Cape 4TC, at just under US$9,700, is now below the time charter equivalent for all the other bulk sizes. Players reported a sharp drop in Australian business, with coal operations still disrupted due to weather factors, and a lacklustre demand for ore. In the period market, it was reported that a 161,000 tonner was taken for 3-5 months at US$13,000 per day. However the sole one-year charter was signed at a BCI index-linked rate. On Monday however the BCI lost just 5 points, raising hopes among owners that the market may be bottoming out.

Panamax

The Panamax 4TC average stayed flat this week and hovered between US$15,300 and US$15,400 per day. However the two basins went in opposite directions. The Pacific showed some resistance due to the number of ballasters going to the USG and ECSA, and ships caught in the congestion in Queensland created some opportunities for the other vessels. The Nopac route gained US$500 and closed the week at US$10,000 per day. West of Suez, in the Atlantic, the market eased by US$1,000 as very few fresh requirements hit the market and the fleet supply end Jan was growing day by day. Regarding the period market, all major operators were quiet and the few ships which went on short period for delivery China or India were getting fixed at US$16,500 per day.

Supramax/Handy

The Baltic Supramax Index has shown a few signs of recovery with most of the routes following a slight upward trend. Delays in the southern part of the Atlantic due to bad weather/congestion have resulted in charterers having to come on the market looking for substitute vessels, of which very few are available. The Baltic gained 48 points to finish at 1,393 points last week, while the average of the TC routes gained US$506 to finish at US$14,570. The US Gulf and the Continent were the drivers of the Atlantic where fewer fixtures were seen from East Coast South America. A Supra delivery west Africa for a trip via Brazil/ Argentina to the Singapore/Japan range was rumoured to have fixed at US$24,000 dop. From the USG, modern Supras were fixed to the Continent around the mid US$20,000s, and to the Singapore/Japan range in the low/ mid to mid US$30,000s. For the smaller sizes, the trend of the Baltic Handysize index has been steady, finishing at 765 points with no difference noted as it had started at 765 points. Only the TC Handysize average showed very minor signs of improvement, as it gained US$25 to finish the week at US$11,129 per day.

For Handies, the driver has been East Coast South America which has been more active than the US Gulf or the Continent (which has seen a few scrap orders back to the east Med), and the Black Sea which remains silent. A couple of Modern Supramaxes ex Far East for 2-4 month periods were fixed between US$12-13,000. The Pacific has continued to weaken with Supramaxes being fixed for backhauls at around US$7,000 ex Taiwan, while ex Japan to Australia/Nopac were fixed around US$7,500.

Source: Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS)