The Panamax market this week firmed up - BRS

Tuesday, 08 March 2011

Underlining the unpredictability of the current market, rates for all dry bulk segments swung up again last week. Stronger exports out of South America lifted the smaller sizes, while better transatlantic demand pushed Cape rates up.

In the iron ore segment, a short-term surge in demand seems possible after India imposed new export taxes on the commodity. The Federation of Indian Mineral Industries said it expected ore exports to fall between 30-35% a year as a result. Nearly all of India’s iron ore shipments are destined for China, and it is expected there could be a rush of Chinese buying before the tax is imposed on April 1. So far, existing contracts out of India are being honoured, but with next to no fresh contracts being signed, the impact of the change is likely to be more obvious next month.

Supramax/Handy

The Supramax market continued its upward trend from the previous week, and the BSI gained 6% to reach a TC average of US$15,340 by Friday. The increase was much stronger in the Pacific basin than in the Atlantic, and the NOPAC round gained 13% to reach about US$15,500 by the end of the week. Despite better market conditions in the Pacific, owners with Supras in the Atlantic were reluctant to fix them for a trip out. The market in the Continent was strong thanks to scrap and fertilizer orders, Supras getting about US$20,000 for a trip with scrap from Cont/Baltic with redelivery east Med, and the same level was fixed for dop Continent and redelivery China via the Cape of Good Hope. The US Gulf market remained stable with Supras getting fixed at US$24,000 basis dop USG and redelivery Skaw/Passero range, whereas USG to the East was fixed in the low US$30,000s per day. The Pacific market started strong, with index type Supras getting mid teens for Pacific rounds, while India positioned ships were fixing at similar levels out of the west coast, and mid/high teens out of the east. Rates steadily picked up towards the end of the week (due to tonnage getting tight for mid March dates), while a flurry of fixing resulted in ships in the Far East getting closer to high teens for Pacific rounds. West coast India to China was fixing in the mid/ high teens, and east coast India remained at similar levels. Backhaul on Supras climbed to close to US$10,000, up from around US$7-8,000. Short period was around mid to mid/high teens, depending on specs and position, and this remained steady all week.

Panamax
The Panamax market this week firmed up in all basins, with a week-on-week increase of over US$1,000 in the Atlantic to reach US$16,000 per day, and more than US$1,500 in the Pacific, to close at US$14,800 per day, pushing the 4TC average to US$16,000 per day. These trends were against a pretty high global offering of tonnage (especially in the Atlantic), except in the Indian Ocean which was clearly under pressure due to a lack of candidates able to carry iron ore to China, or to ballast to pick up grains for China via ECSA. This route was paying around US$19,000 per day for delivery India. Period activity, linked to the firmer FFA market, increased by US$1,000 per day ie around US$18,000 per day on a TESS 74 delivery Far East for short period.

Capesize
An 8% increase in the BCI this week, with greater activity in the Atlantic pushing rates. The BCI finished on Friday at 1,427 points, while the time charter average limped above US$5,700 per day. The prospects of more activity out of Australia gave some small confidence to the market, and April and May FFA rates rose to US$14,500 and US$16,400 respectively. Monday saw another US1,000 added to the 4TC, which suggests greater confidence for the week ahead, though which the current volatility there seems to be no certainty it will last.
Reported by - Barry Rogliano Salles

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Supramax market is improving in the pacific

Tuesday,22February,2011

BRS - A 10% rise in the BDI this week, mostly on the back of Panamax rates and improvements in the Supramax market in the Pacific. For the Capes, rates rose slightly but it was an inconclusive week. Adding to the uncertain situation in India, Chhattisgarh state, which produces around 20% of India's iron ore reserves, this week became the latest to threaten a possible ban on exports after the state’s chief minister appealed to the Indian prime minister. The region has only one ore miner, state-owned NMDC, so a decision on a ban would have to be made by the federal government. Karnataka’s ban on exports from private firms is currently being appealed in the Supreme Court, but has already resulted in a significant drop in exports from the country.

Capesize
Although Chinese New Year is now well and truly behind us, there has yet to be a significant recovery in Capesize rates. Rates rose Friday to Friday but started another downward slide towards the end of the week. At US$ 6,620 per day on Friday, the 4TC is still lower than rates before the holiday. Widespread tonnage availability continues to be the main issue, particularly in the Pacific, and the only route to show any real rate increase was Brazil-China. There was no period activity to report, and in the FFA market Q2 has now dropped from US$ 21,000 levels to US$ 17,500. The BCI recorded another drop on Monday.

Panamax
The Panamax market this week continued in the same vein as last week, boosted by a firm Indian market; the 4TC average closed on Friday at US$ 16,000 per day, up US$3,000 compared to a week ago. The route paying the most was the WCI/ China trade where a standard Tess 74 managed to fix at US$ 22/23,000 per day. The Nopac itself was closer to US$15,000/ day, representing an increase of around US$ 4,000 compared to last week’s level. The India buzz had an impact on TA round rates and especially in the ECSA area. But by the end of the week we noted a decrease in activity, with a still quiet ECSA grain export market and high ship availability. The TA round ended the week at US$15/16,000 per day. Period wise, numbers increased as well and operators were taking ships in at around US$18,000 per day ie an increase of US$2,000 compared to the previous week.

Supramax/Handy
The Baltic Supramax Index has continued to rise throughout the week as activity picks up steadily after the Chinese New Year. Despite this rise, one wonders whether the improvements will last. The BSI gained 113 points to finish at 1,267 points last week, while the average of the time charter average gained US$1,184 to finish at US$13,247. The USG and NCSA were the most active areas, and modern Supras were fixed at in the low/ mid US$20,000s back to the Continent/Med. Supras were paid around US$25,000 for delivery west coast central America. The Continent has also been active with fixtures reported to various destinations including the Far East in the very high US$10,000s, and a couple of laden legs within the Atlantic in the mid US$10,000s. Little emerged from South America on the Supras. The Baltic has also been on the rise for smaller sizes and the BHSI gained 19 points last week to finish at 670, while the average of the time charter gained US$304 to finish at US$9,906. East coast South America has been more active mainly with grain fixtures to the Continent and Mediterranean in the mid to mid/high US$10,000s depending on vessel age. From north coast South America vessels were fixed at US$15,000 for Continent redelivery and modern Handies were rumoured fixed at US$10,000 from the eastern Med to west Africa. Modern Supras were fixed in the mid US$10,000s level for 4-6 months period with delivery Far East. The Pacific was also on the rise with Supramaxes ex Japan to Australia/Nopac gaining US$2,386 to end the week at US$10,791. Supras open in China for a trip to Indonesia with redelivery India were paid a touch below US$10,000.

Source: Barry Rogliano Salles
Tags: FFA market, The Panamax 4TC, The Panamax index, The Baltic Supramax Index, The BSI, vessels, Global freight rates, Indonesia, India, China, America, Africa

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DRY BULK RATES CONTINUED TO TUMBLE LAST WEEK - BRS

Tuesday, 25 January 11

With weather-related problems affecting the short-term outlook, and new building deliveries the longer-term picture, dry bulk rates continued to tumble last week and the BDI and Capesize 4TC are now at their lowest levels for 2 years. Thursday saw the BDI bottom out at 1,438 points, a result mainly of softness in the Cape market. Rising commodity prices indicate there is still good demand for product, which suggests new building deliveries are the main issue affecting rates. After two weeks of 2011, 20 new Capes have been delivered, 9 Panamaxes, 28 Supramaxes, and 21 Handysizes, indicating the pace of delivery is increasing. In the FFA market, 2H 2011 is now trading at around US$21,000 per day compared to US$24,000 six months ago.

Capesize

Another period of softening rates in the Cape market, and the BCI lost a further 15% or 270 points Friday-to-Friday. The Cape 4TC, at just under US$9,700, is now below the time charter equivalent for all the other bulk sizes. Players reported a sharp drop in Australian business, with coal operations still disrupted due to weather factors, and a lacklustre demand for ore. In the period market, it was reported that a 161,000 tonner was taken for 3-5 months at US$13,000 per day. However the sole one-year charter was signed at a BCI index-linked rate. On Monday however the BCI lost just 5 points, raising hopes among owners that the market may be bottoming out.

Panamax

The Panamax 4TC average stayed flat this week and hovered between US$15,300 and US$15,400 per day. However the two basins went in opposite directions. The Pacific showed some resistance due to the number of ballasters going to the USG and ECSA, and ships caught in the congestion in Queensland created some opportunities for the other vessels. The Nopac route gained US$500 and closed the week at US$10,000 per day. West of Suez, in the Atlantic, the market eased by US$1,000 as very few fresh requirements hit the market and the fleet supply end Jan was growing day by day. Regarding the period market, all major operators were quiet and the few ships which went on short period for delivery China or India were getting fixed at US$16,500 per day.

Supramax/Handy

The Baltic Supramax Index has shown a few signs of recovery with most of the routes following a slight upward trend. Delays in the southern part of the Atlantic due to bad weather/congestion have resulted in charterers having to come on the market looking for substitute vessels, of which very few are available. The Baltic gained 48 points to finish at 1,393 points last week, while the average of the TC routes gained US$506 to finish at US$14,570. The US Gulf and the Continent were the drivers of the Atlantic where fewer fixtures were seen from East Coast South America. A Supra delivery west Africa for a trip via Brazil/ Argentina to the Singapore/Japan range was rumoured to have fixed at US$24,000 dop. From the USG, modern Supras were fixed to the Continent around the mid US$20,000s, and to the Singapore/Japan range in the low/ mid to mid US$30,000s. For the smaller sizes, the trend of the Baltic Handysize index has been steady, finishing at 765 points with no difference noted as it had started at 765 points. Only the TC Handysize average showed very minor signs of improvement, as it gained US$25 to finish the week at US$11,129 per day.

For Handies, the driver has been East Coast South America which has been more active than the US Gulf or the Continent (which has seen a few scrap orders back to the east Med), and the Black Sea which remains silent. A couple of Modern Supramaxes ex Far East for 2-4 month periods were fixed between US$12-13,000. The Pacific has continued to weaken with Supramaxes being fixed for backhauls at around US$7,000 ex Taiwan, while ex Japan to Australia/Nopac were fixed around US$7,500.

Source: Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS)