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Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Mixed fortunes for dry bulk owners this week - Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping


Wednesday, 02 March 11

Although the dry bulk market has been on the positive side this week, things still look quite uncertain in the near term, with most owners puzzled as to what their next move should be in such a fluid market environment. Still, the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) managed to edge higher yesterday, ending the session up by 0.88% to 1.262 points. But the irregularities among the various sub-segments still are the new “regularities”, with Capesizes (larger ship sizes of 150,000 tons) still earning significantly lower daily income than their smaller counterparts. Up until recently, this had been the case with Panamaxes, with the gap among the two markets, now being among the largest recorded. But, the Supramaxes good fortunes during the past couple of weeks, has helped the even smaller and more flexible ships of this type, to edge forward and surpass even the Capesize segment. The relative Baltic Supramax market is now standing at 1,418 points (+1.43% on the day), versus just 1,314 points of the Baltic Capesize Index.

According to the latest weekly report from Shiptrade Services, on the capesize market iron ore majors are once again out of play this week with new cylcones hitting major ports in Australia. “As a result hardly any fixtures were concluded. The negative freight market, further burdened by the rising bunker prices is shrinking owners returns, who more
often than not have been considering pulling their vessels out of the market until the it picks up again. On the other hand the period market has been quite active this week with good returns, as a result, it often stands as a good alternative to owners” the shipbroker said.

Regarding the booming as of late Supramax market, it mentioned that “the sentiment was positive this week in the Mediterranean, mostly for trips to the US as well as the Continent as a result of fresh cargoes entering the market and a rush of activity deriving thereof. Rates in the Atlantic mainly stayed at similar levels to last week with little fresh enquiry recorded within the Atlantic. The Pacific continued its improvement this week with much activity being directed towards India. Rates have been rising in the spot market as a result. Here too the rise in the paper market has given rise to some significant gains in the short period rates. However many doubt the longevity of this positive sentiment” it said.

As for the Panamax market, it has softened in the Atlantic since last week, with grain demand noted then from the ECSA, now fading, thus resulting in dropped rates. “In the Pacific, the sentiment was mixed with few NOPAC round being concluded while rates hovered at similar levels to last week. On the other hand, the paper market firmed up giving rise to higher returns in the short period market. Finally, in the smaller HandySize market, no significant change has been recorded since last week. The Atlantic healed more or less steady with a generally balanced supply ratio. A spike of activity was seen in the Pacific for trips to the USG and ECSA boosting rates for backhaul trips by over 20% .

In terms of ship purchasing activity, Shiptrade noted that purchase interest has been reduced compared to the previous week. “The Asia markets are holding the leading position, followed by Greek and other markets. In the dry sector, purchase interest concentrated on Handysize, Handymax and Panamax vessels. Furthermore the market is still trying to find a consensus and an equilibrium point with regard to price estimation differences between what buyers are willing to pay for vessel acquisitions and on what levels sellers are willing to sell.

In this regard it would be helpful to mention that although for quite some time we have not witnessed a deal in the late nineties built handymaxes, market rumor has it that a large Japanese handymax bulk carrier built 1996 has been committed to Asian buyers, who were willing to pay a firm very high teens for her” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

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