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Friday, March 4, 2011

China Coal-Prices stay at 4-mth low; seen weak til May

Mar03, 2011

* Market well-supplied
* Chinese coal discount vs Australian imports highest since '08
By Fayen Wong

SHANGHAI - China's thermal coal prices were stuck at a four-month low of 770 yuan ($117.2) a tonne as supplies continued to outstrip demand, with stockpiles at Qinhuangdao port rising to the highest in more than seven months.

Some Chinese traders remained bearish on the market and voiced concerns that demand would only pick up in late April or May ahead of summer restocking by utilities.

Coal with a heating value of 5,500 kcal/kg was flat at 770-780 ($117.19-$118.72) on Wednesday, while stocks at top coal port Qinhuangdao jumped 12.5 percent to 8.47 million tonnes, data from industry website sxcoal.com showed.

Coal with heating value of 6,000 kcal/kg (NAR) was steady at 825-835 yuan.

"Prices won't start moving higher until around May. The outlook for imports will probably only improve ahead of summer, but even that is highly dependent on international prices," said a source at a big trading house.

"We have to remember that China doesn't need to import. They have more than enough coal domestically to feed the entire nation. They only do it when imports are cheaper."

But coal prices in Australia and South Africa have continued to rise in recent weeks, making Chinese coal cheaper by $38 and $9.30 a tonne respectively, based on coal with heating value of 6,000 kcal/kg NAR, Reuters calculations showed.

The arbitrage between Chinese coal prices and Australian imports are at the widest since September 2008.

"The floodgates of Chinese demand closed as suddenly as they had opened in 2009. You get the occasional enquiry but they are just fishing; none of them are serious buyers," said a Singapore-based trader.

Another trader said Chinese buyers were offering some $5-$10 below market rates for Indonesian sub-bituminous coal, which is now hovering at around $87 a tonne, based on coal with a net heating value of 4,900 kcal/kg.

Lured by higher overseas prices, Chinese producers are still trying to sell spot shipments to Japan, but there is a general lack of buying interest in Japan and the Pacific market as whole.

Australia's thermal coal prices, a benchmark for Asia, slipped to $132 a tonne versus last week in a thinly traded market which is largely awaiting the results of annual contract negotiations between Australian producers and Japanese utilities.
[COAL/ASIA]
Weekly Qinhuangdao prices for (Yuan) PORT STOCKS >6,000 kcal/kg >5,500 Kcal/KG (Mln Tonnes) WEEK TO

825-835 770-780 8.472 Mar 02

825-835 770-780 7.533 Feb 21

825-835 775-785 7.284 Feb 14

825-835 775-785 7.426 Feb 07

825-835 775-785 6.859 Jan 31

825-835 775-785 7.071 Jan 24

835-845 780-790 7.210 Jan 17

835-845 780-790 6.954 Jan 10

835-845 780-790 7.049 Jan 04

835-845 780-790 7.104 Dec 30

835-845 780-790 7.590 Dec 24

840-850 790-800 7.006 Dec 20

845-855 795-805 6.711 Dec 13

845-855 795-805 6.663 Dec 06

860-870 805-815 5.789 Nov 29

850-860 795-805 6.170 Nov 22

840-850 790-800 6.197 Nov 15

840-850 790-800 6.387 Nov 08

825-835 765-775 6.805 Nov 01

(Reporting by Fayen Wong, Editing by Jonathan Hopfner, By Thomson Reuters)

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