China's benchmark thermal coal price has fallen for six weeks

Friday, January 21, 2011
BEIJING, Jan. 21, 2011 (Xinhua News Agency)

China's benchmark thermal coal price has fallen for six weeks in a row since December 8 of 2010 to average 773 yuan/tonne during January 12 to January 18, despite price hike in international market and cold weather across the country.
According to price-tracking statistics, the price has fallen by 23 yuan/tonne from the peak in 2010.
Coal price at Qinhuangdao Port entered a downward curve s ince November 24 of 2010. The price for 4500-kilowcalorie power coal h as dropped 35 yuan/tonne from the peak at 625-635 yuan/tonnes in 2010.
The recent flood in Australia has blocked normal coal exp orts of Australia, who is a major coal exporting country, and led to c onsiderable hike in international coal price.
By the end of last week, the free on board (FOB) price fo r power coal at New Castle Port in Australia has jumped 4.9 percent on week to 136.3 US dollars/tonne, and that of coking coal up 5.7 percen t to 280 US dollars/tonne.
So far, international coal and coking coal prices have be en 260 yuan/tonne and 454 yuan/tonne higher than domestic prices.
In the meantime, the cold weather across China, especially slee t in some southern provinces in the country, has risked coal supply in China. According to weather forecast by the National Meteorological C enter of China, in the following ten days, temperature in most parts o f China would be 1-2 degree Celsius lower than average level in the pa st years. Snow will fall in most part of south China. North China and Huang-Huai Region would not likely to see snow fall before January 15 but a 1-3mm snow fall around January 27.
However, the international coal price hike and the bad we ather seemed to pose little impact in China's domestic coal price. Currently, China's domestic coal price remains stable des pite slight increase in coking coal price and anthracite coal price.
The stability in coal price in China despite of internati onal price hike is mainly attributed to smooth throughput at major por ts in north China, which has effectively guaranteed stable coal supply to south China. So far, there hasn't been report on short supply of c oal in south China areas.
For the past week, daily coal stocks at Qinhuangdao Port remained at 7.061 million tonnes, up 1.53 percent from 6.955 million t onnes in previous week. By January 17, the daily input of coal to Qinh uangdao Port also rise 5.9 percent on month to 717,000 tonnes. By Janu ary 19, coal stocks at the Port has risen 1.16 percent on week to 7.12
million tonnes, up 14.26 percent on year.

Meanwhile, coal stocks at two other major Ports at Bohai- Rim have also shown some increases. By January 19, coal stocks at Jing tang Port and Caofeidian Port stood at 1.52 million tonnes and 2 milli on tonnes respectively.
Some insiders predicted that domestic coal price may trac k the global market buoyancy caused by flood in Australia with tempera ture fall in most parts of China. While some other insiders believed t hat the coal price would not increase much due to ample stocks at coal
ports in China including Qinhuangdao Port.

Experts forecast that coal supply and demand in coastal m arket will maintain flourish until the Chinese Spring Festival in Febr uary, and power plants would have stable coal supply if the weather wi ll not deteriorate into a substantial hinder to disrupt coal transport ation from northern coal producing provinces to major coal consumers i n the south.
Judging from the weather forecast, coal transportation in
major coal production areas in north China is not likely to be affect ed by the weather change. Thus coal supply is expected to remain stabl e in January.
But considering the approaching of Chinese Spring Festiva l on February 3, China may have to face mounting transportation in rai lways, which may affect coal transportation. Therefore, insiders predi cted that China's coal price is very likely to maintain at high level and grow up further in February. Source: Quotemedia