Saturday, 18 Feb 2012
Fortescue Metals Group expects iron ore prices will remain around USD 140 per tonne in the short-to-medium term as Chinese demand remains strong but little new supply comes onto the market.
Fortescue reported that it had achieved an average realised sales price of USD 139 per tonne during the six months to December 31, down from USD 149 per tonne in financial 2010/11.
Mr Nev Power CEO of FMG told reporters that "Our core market in China remains strong and the iron ore index price has remained around USD 140 per tonne.”
He said that "Long term, China's growth is forecast to be stable around the nine per cent mark and we don't see significant new supply to come into the market in the short term, and, therefore, expect the price to remain in that range."
Head of marketing Mr David Liu said China's steel market should stabilize after a recent lull.
(Sourced from AAP)
Showing posts with label analysts forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label analysts forecast. Show all posts
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Vietnam 2015 coal output to rise to 58 million tonnes
Thursday, 12 Jan 2012
Reuters quoted the government said Vietnam aims to raise its coal output to 55 million tonnes to 58 million tonnes in 2015 from an estimated 48.9 million tonnes this year in an effort to meet demand for fast growing electricity production.
The government said late on Tuesday in a plan for coal development that output is projected to rise to more than 75 million tonnes by 2030 thanks to the exploitation of new sites.
Electricity demand is growing at 7% to 10% a year and Vietnam is having trouble ensuring supply.
State utility Vietnam Electricity has said coal will be a major fuel for electricity over the next five years and will account for 47% of power generation by 2020.
The country has a dozen thermal power plants under construction which are expected to start operation by 2015.
Vinacomin the state run coal and mineral group plans to import at least 5 million tonnes of the fossil fuel in 2015 and officially starting imports in large volumes.
A government coal development plan said Vietnam has estimated total coal reserves at 48.7 billion tonnes by 2011.
(Sourced from Reuters)
Reuters quoted the government said Vietnam aims to raise its coal output to 55 million tonnes to 58 million tonnes in 2015 from an estimated 48.9 million tonnes this year in an effort to meet demand for fast growing electricity production.
The government said late on Tuesday in a plan for coal development that output is projected to rise to more than 75 million tonnes by 2030 thanks to the exploitation of new sites.
Electricity demand is growing at 7% to 10% a year and Vietnam is having trouble ensuring supply.
State utility Vietnam Electricity has said coal will be a major fuel for electricity over the next five years and will account for 47% of power generation by 2020.
The country has a dozen thermal power plants under construction which are expected to start operation by 2015.
Vinacomin the state run coal and mineral group plans to import at least 5 million tonnes of the fossil fuel in 2015 and officially starting imports in large volumes.
A government coal development plan said Vietnam has estimated total coal reserves at 48.7 billion tonnes by 2011.
(Sourced from Reuters)
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Iron ore prices could slide to USD 140 per tonne
Thursday, 20 Oct 2011
It is reported that prices of iron ore, the main ingredient for making steel, could slide to as low as USD 140 per tonne in the coming months.
In September, spot iron ore prices grew above USD 181 per tonne but on Monday fell deeply to USD 157.25.
Analysts and mines experts said developments in China over its monetary policy have been affecting demand for iron ore, noting the commodity weakening prices could extend into the early part of this quarter.
Recently reports circulated that Brazil Vale was selling iron ore for fourth quarter contracts cheaply to the Chinese an indication that iron ore miners were giving in to Chinese pressure.
Reports said iron ore miners were selling to Chinese steel mills at USD 175 a tonne. But the Chinese were not buying because the fourth quarter contract rate was based on June to August average spot prices. Iron ore is currently less than USD 160 a tonne average. But miners said prices will likely recover coming into the New Year as Chinese steel consumption is expected to grow 7.5% this year.
(sourced from Gantdaily)
It is reported that prices of iron ore, the main ingredient for making steel, could slide to as low as USD 140 per tonne in the coming months.
In September, spot iron ore prices grew above USD 181 per tonne but on Monday fell deeply to USD 157.25.
Analysts and mines experts said developments in China over its monetary policy have been affecting demand for iron ore, noting the commodity weakening prices could extend into the early part of this quarter.
Recently reports circulated that Brazil Vale was selling iron ore for fourth quarter contracts cheaply to the Chinese an indication that iron ore miners were giving in to Chinese pressure.
Reports said iron ore miners were selling to Chinese steel mills at USD 175 a tonne. But the Chinese were not buying because the fourth quarter contract rate was based on June to August average spot prices. Iron ore is currently less than USD 160 a tonne average. But miners said prices will likely recover coming into the New Year as Chinese steel consumption is expected to grow 7.5% this year.
(sourced from Gantdaily)
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Coking Coal Price to Fall on Softer Demand, Mackenzie Says
Wed, Oct 19, 2011
Steelmaking coal prices will fall below $240 a metric ton by the fourth quarter of 2012 as demand eases and supply improves following flooding in Australia, forecaster Wood Mackenzie Ltd. said.
“Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year,” Prakash Sharma, coal market analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in an e-mailed statement. “Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity - reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Contract coal prices settled at $285 a ton for the current quarter, 10 percent lower than the previous three months, and after reaching a record following flooding at the start of the year in Australia, the world’s biggest exporter.
The longer-term demand outlook remains strong, which will likely trigger further takeover activity in the sector, Sharma said.
“Demand growth will be led by emerging markets, with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030,” he said. “China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60 percent of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
(sourced bloomberg)
Steelmaking coal prices will fall below $240 a metric ton by the fourth quarter of 2012 as demand eases and supply improves following flooding in Australia, forecaster Wood Mackenzie Ltd. said.
“Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year,” Prakash Sharma, coal market analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in an e-mailed statement. “Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity - reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Contract coal prices settled at $285 a ton for the current quarter, 10 percent lower than the previous three months, and after reaching a record following flooding at the start of the year in Australia, the world’s biggest exporter.
The longer-term demand outlook remains strong, which will likely trigger further takeover activity in the sector, Sharma said.
“Demand growth will be led by emerging markets, with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030,” he said. “China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60 percent of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
(sourced bloomberg)
Xstrata sets steam coal contracts above analyst expectations
Wed,19 Oct 2011
Bloomberg reported that Xstrata Plc which achieved record output of power station coal in the third quarter agreed on annual contracts with long term Japanese customers at prices that exceeded analysts’ expectations.
The Zug Switzerland based company said in a statement that Xstrata settled coal prices at USD 126.50 per tonne from October 1 compared with USD 129.85 on April 1.
Liberum Capital Ltd said "Considering recent bearishness around commodity prices we consider this an amazing settlement for Xstrata."
The Standard & Poor GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials has dropped 17% from this year high in April. Copper for three month delivery on the London Metal Exchange has slumped 28% from a record as economic growth in China the world biggest user of industrial metals slows.
Mr Rob Clifford a London based analyst at Deutsche Bank AG said "The third quarter 2011 marked the end of recent weather- related production impacts on the coal business. On the other side of the ledger, copper production was hampered by more issues at Collahuasi."
He said that "With the stock trading below our price target, we maintain our buy' recommendation. He has a share-price target of 1,758 pence for Xstrata."
Production of coking coal used in steelmaking increased by 26%. Total output including semi-soft coal rose 7.8% to 23.6 million tons.
(Sourced from Bloomberg)
Bloomberg reported that Xstrata Plc which achieved record output of power station coal in the third quarter agreed on annual contracts with long term Japanese customers at prices that exceeded analysts’ expectations.
The Zug Switzerland based company said in a statement that Xstrata settled coal prices at USD 126.50 per tonne from October 1 compared with USD 129.85 on April 1.
Liberum Capital Ltd said "Considering recent bearishness around commodity prices we consider this an amazing settlement for Xstrata."
The Standard & Poor GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials has dropped 17% from this year high in April. Copper for three month delivery on the London Metal Exchange has slumped 28% from a record as economic growth in China the world biggest user of industrial metals slows.
Mr Rob Clifford a London based analyst at Deutsche Bank AG said "The third quarter 2011 marked the end of recent weather- related production impacts on the coal business. On the other side of the ledger, copper production was hampered by more issues at Collahuasi."
He said that "With the stock trading below our price target, we maintain our buy' recommendation. He has a share-price target of 1,758 pence for Xstrata."
Production of coking coal used in steelmaking increased by 26%. Total output including semi-soft coal rose 7.8% to 23.6 million tons.
(Sourced from Bloomberg)
Friday, February 25, 2011
Chinese industry steels itself for changes in next 5 years - CISA
Friday, 25 Feb 2011
China Daily quoted the China Iron and Steel Association as saying that steel mills in north and northeastern China should stop enlarging their production capacities during the 12th Five Year Period (2011-2015) as the industry prepares for large scale changes.
Analysts said a developmental trend in China will see steel mills being relocated to coastal areas for financial and environmental reasons.
Ms Zhang Lin a senior analyst from Beijing Lange Steel Information Research Center said China is learning a lesson from the major economies and is now planning to move the industry to the coastal areas from inland regions.
She said that "The move will be beneficial to the environment because steel production is a process which consumes huge amounts of water. Under the pressure of fewer resources and worsening environmental pollution, it is wise to make this change.”
She added that the move will provide savings for the steel companies in the importation of equipment. She also said "The companies used to spend a lot on transporting the imported equipment inland. However, if the mills are located on the coast and close to ports it will be more convenient and economical."
According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center, North China steel mills produced a total of 170.89 million tonnes in 2010 accounting for 27.26% of the national industry production.
Ms Zhang said north and northeastern China have long been the key production bases, and their production capacity is already big enough to meet targets. It is part of a strategic plan to move production to the coastal areas to ensure the sustainable development of the industry.
Shougang Group, formerly the largest steelmaker in Beijing, moved its production facilities to Caofeidian Port in Hebei province in January. Ms Zhang said the mills in Caofeidian are conducting research on the desalination of seawater for industrial use, a development which if realized, will prove profitable for the industry.
CISA has also asked steelmakers to diversify their range of products, and contribute more towards the development of high speed railways, urban metro lines, oceanographic engineering off shore oil exploration and the renewable-energy industries.
Analysts said a developmental trend in China will see steel mills being relocated to coastal areas for financial and environmental reasons.
Ms Zhang Lin a senior analyst from Beijing Lange Steel Information Research Center said China is learning a lesson from the major economies and is now planning to move the industry to the coastal areas from inland regions.
She said that "The move will be beneficial to the environment because steel production is a process which consumes huge amounts of water. Under the pressure of fewer resources and worsening environmental pollution, it is wise to make this change.”
She added that the move will provide savings for the steel companies in the importation of equipment. She also said "The companies used to spend a lot on transporting the imported equipment inland. However, if the mills are located on the coast and close to ports it will be more convenient and economical."
According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center, North China steel mills produced a total of 170.89 million tonnes in 2010 accounting for 27.26% of the national industry production.
Ms Zhang said north and northeastern China have long been the key production bases, and their production capacity is already big enough to meet targets. It is part of a strategic plan to move production to the coastal areas to ensure the sustainable development of the industry.
Shougang Group, formerly the largest steelmaker in Beijing, moved its production facilities to Caofeidian Port in Hebei province in January. Ms Zhang said the mills in Caofeidian are conducting research on the desalination of seawater for industrial use, a development which if realized, will prove profitable for the industry.
CISA has also asked steelmakers to diversify their range of products, and contribute more towards the development of high speed railways, urban metro lines, oceanographic engineering off shore oil exploration and the renewable-energy industries.
(Sourced:China Daily)
Tags:steel production, northeastern china, Beiging, China Iron and steel association
Sunday, February 13, 2011
REUTERS's COAL POLL - Coal prices seen firmer but volatile in 2011
Thursday February 10, 2011 04:27:15 AM GMT
COAL-POLL
* Poll sees higher prices but even more volatility
* China imports may cool in Q2; seen strong for whole year
* Economic growth to boost coal demand worldwide
By Jackie CowhigLONDON,
Feb9,2011 (Reuters) - Coal prices still have potential to rise in 2011 despite recent sharp gains and volatility, analysts polled by Reuters said.The forecasts for average 2011 coal prices given by 22 analysts and industry players polled by Reuters in February were $30-37 a tonne higher than predictions given in January last year but only slightly higher than current values.The forecasts were for the three main physical benchmarks -- thermal coal delivered into Europe and free on board (FOB) South African and Australian ports.
The median forecast for coal delivered in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (DES ARA) in 2011 was $121.00 a tonne, up from $90.00 forecast in January last year. DES ARA prices on average for 2011 are currently around $115.00.
For South Africa's Richards Bay the median forecast was $115.00 a tonne FOB, compared to $85 last year and prices now of $115 while for Australia's Newcastle the median was $126.00, up from $89 last year and compared to spot values of around $123.
For a Table of the full forecast details see.
ASIA DEMAND CONTINUES TO SURGE
A boom in imported thermal coal demand across Asia led by China and India is set to continue for the next several years and will lend further strength to prices.
Although China and India are the biggest importers by far there are several other countries which have emerged as substantial buyers including South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia and these will absorb increasing quantities of long-haul coal from South Africa and Colombia.
"Once again we rely on Asian demand to be the driver for coal prices but if there were no issues on the supply side, demand from Asia would produce only a slower, steady rise in prices," said Emmanuel Fages at Societe Generale in Paris.
"This time last year some people were expecting China to import 200 million tonnes and while the figure was less, around 140 million, it was still a huge quantity and we expect a similar amount for this year," the analyst said.
China's rapid entry and withdrawal from the import market significantly contributed to the price volatility seen last year and this is also likely to continue in 2011, analysts said.
Most analysts polled agreed that the overall trend was upwards but a series of price shocks -- spikes and falls -- are likely as the market reacts to supply disruptions and the sudden appearance and disappearance of Chinese spot buying
"I think API2 prices will average at least $120 and could end the year above $125, on a combination of Asian demand growth and further supply shocks causing price spikes through the year," said Fages.
Moves in other energy markets will also cause sharp price movements in coal, analysts said. Coal has become more responsive to moves in other markets such as oil and to news which moves energy markets in general, such as the Egyptian unrest which helped propel oil prices to over $100.
"The key thing is that supply might be under less pressure in 2011 than in recent months but we should not underestimate the potential impact of everything which is going on in the Middle East," said Charles Kernot at Evolution Securities.
"If oil goes up, coal will perform pretty well," he said.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Coal demand and prices will also be boosted by the general economic recovery in Europe and North America and continued growth in Asia despite China applying the brakes on its speedy growth by raising interest rates, analysts said.
"The improving economic background in Europe and North America should help support coal prices because demand will start to increase. Preliminary economic numbers published recently were looking pretty good," Kernot said.
Last year saw almost every major coal exporting country faced weather-linked supply disruptions and a similar pattern cannot be ruled out for 2011, analysts said.
"Coal has become very volatile and prone to price spikes due to supply disruptions -- which is what happened after the Australian floods and in fact prices now are higher than they were just before the floods," said Fages.
Although some analysts cautioned that weak Chinese demand in Q2 might pull prices down, the overall scenario is for price growth over the whole year.
"We continue to view coal favourably. Even beyond the Australian floods, demand remains extremely strong, with most of the exporting nations facing infrastructural issues," said Barclays Capital's Amrita Sen. (Editing by James Jukwey,sourced:Thomson Reuters)
COAL-POLL
* Poll sees higher prices but even more volatility
* China imports may cool in Q2; seen strong for whole year
* Economic growth to boost coal demand worldwide
By Jackie CowhigLONDON,
Feb9,2011 (Reuters) - Coal prices still have potential to rise in 2011 despite recent sharp gains and volatility, analysts polled by Reuters said.The forecasts for average 2011 coal prices given by 22 analysts and industry players polled by Reuters in February were $30-37 a tonne higher than predictions given in January last year but only slightly higher than current values.The forecasts were for the three main physical benchmarks -- thermal coal delivered into Europe and free on board (FOB) South African and Australian ports.
The median forecast for coal delivered in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (DES ARA) in 2011 was $121.00 a tonne, up from $90.00 forecast in January last year. DES ARA prices on average for 2011 are currently around $115.00.
For South Africa's Richards Bay the median forecast was $115.00 a tonne FOB, compared to $85 last year and prices now of $115 while for Australia's Newcastle the median was $126.00, up from $89 last year and compared to spot values of around $123.
For a Table of the full forecast details see.
ASIA DEMAND CONTINUES TO SURGE
A boom in imported thermal coal demand across Asia led by China and India is set to continue for the next several years and will lend further strength to prices.
Although China and India are the biggest importers by far there are several other countries which have emerged as substantial buyers including South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia and these will absorb increasing quantities of long-haul coal from South Africa and Colombia.
"Once again we rely on Asian demand to be the driver for coal prices but if there were no issues on the supply side, demand from Asia would produce only a slower, steady rise in prices," said Emmanuel Fages at Societe Generale in Paris.
"This time last year some people were expecting China to import 200 million tonnes and while the figure was less, around 140 million, it was still a huge quantity and we expect a similar amount for this year," the analyst said.
China's rapid entry and withdrawal from the import market significantly contributed to the price volatility seen last year and this is also likely to continue in 2011, analysts said.
Most analysts polled agreed that the overall trend was upwards but a series of price shocks -- spikes and falls -- are likely as the market reacts to supply disruptions and the sudden appearance and disappearance of Chinese spot buying
"I think API2 prices will average at least $120 and could end the year above $125, on a combination of Asian demand growth and further supply shocks causing price spikes through the year," said Fages.
Moves in other energy markets will also cause sharp price movements in coal, analysts said. Coal has become more responsive to moves in other markets such as oil and to news which moves energy markets in general, such as the Egyptian unrest which helped propel oil prices to over $100.
"The key thing is that supply might be under less pressure in 2011 than in recent months but we should not underestimate the potential impact of everything which is going on in the Middle East," said Charles Kernot at Evolution Securities.
"If oil goes up, coal will perform pretty well," he said.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Coal demand and prices will also be boosted by the general economic recovery in Europe and North America and continued growth in Asia despite China applying the brakes on its speedy growth by raising interest rates, analysts said.
"The improving economic background in Europe and North America should help support coal prices because demand will start to increase. Preliminary economic numbers published recently were looking pretty good," Kernot said.
Last year saw almost every major coal exporting country faced weather-linked supply disruptions and a similar pattern cannot be ruled out for 2011, analysts said.
"Coal has become very volatile and prone to price spikes due to supply disruptions -- which is what happened after the Australian floods and in fact prices now are higher than they were just before the floods," said Fages.
Although some analysts cautioned that weak Chinese demand in Q2 might pull prices down, the overall scenario is for price growth over the whole year.
"We continue to view coal favourably. Even beyond the Australian floods, demand remains extremely strong, with most of the exporting nations facing infrastructural issues," said Barclays Capital's Amrita Sen. (Editing by James Jukwey,sourced:Thomson Reuters)
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Russia's Evraz sees '11 EBITDA $3.0-$3.6 bln
Thu Feb 3, 2011 11:00 am GMT
MOSCOW(Reuters)
Evraz (HK1q.L: Quote), Russia's second largest steelmaker, expects its core earnings to reach $3.0-$3.6 billion this year, chief financial officer Giacomo Baizini said on Thursday.
"Analysts forecast our EBITDA between $3.0-$3.6 billion in 2011, and I have no reason to say that we will not achieve this," Baizini said at the Troika Dialog forum in Moscow.
Evraz, part-owned by billionaire Roman Abramovich, has not released earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for 2010.
It is scheduled to report its 2010 results on March 31.
The executive also said 2011 capital expenditures will reach about $1.2 billion compared to $950 million last year.
(Reporting by Anastasia Teterevleva, writing by Alfred Kueppers, sourced: reuters)
MOSCOW(Reuters)
Evraz (HK1q.L: Quote), Russia's second largest steelmaker, expects its core earnings to reach $3.0-$3.6 billion this year, chief financial officer Giacomo Baizini said on Thursday.
"Analysts forecast our EBITDA between $3.0-$3.6 billion in 2011, and I have no reason to say that we will not achieve this," Baizini said at the Troika Dialog forum in Moscow.
Evraz, part-owned by billionaire Roman Abramovich, has not released earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for 2010.
It is scheduled to report its 2010 results on March 31.
The executive also said 2011 capital expenditures will reach about $1.2 billion compared to $950 million last year.
(Reporting by Anastasia Teterevleva, writing by Alfred Kueppers, sourced: reuters)
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