Monday, December 12, 2011
Trade surplus narrows as commodity prices drop
The monthly trade surplus narrowed more than expected in October to its smallest since March as demand for commodities from China faltered.
The trade surplus narrowed to $1.59 billion from $2.56 billion in September, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Economists polled by Bloomberg expected the trade surplus to fall to $2 billion.
"It could be the first sign of a weakness for demand for commodities from China but a lot will depend on how Europe evolves," said St George Bank chief economist Besa Deda. "We think the weaker commodities prices and the relative strength of the Aussie dollar, combined with strong demand for capital goods imports probably means we've seen the peak of the surplus."
The ABS said iron ore fines exports to China, on a recorded trade basis, fell $110 million or 3 per cent in October. Volumes for lump iron ores were up 6 per cent but prices fell 9 per cent.
The fears of a steep recession in Europe have weakened demand for Chinese exports which in turn is hurting Australian sales into China.
The Australian dollar fell after the release of the trade figures and a separate report on housing finance, losing about one quarter of a US cents to about $US1.017 in recent trade.
China effect
Ms Deda noted that China recently began easing policy in response to the impact of the European debt crisis and economic slowdown in China. Europe is China's biggest export market.
Rural goods, seasonally adjusted, rose 2 per cent to $3 billion in October.
Ms Deda said St George is still forecasting healthy trade surpluses to come, especially with Queensland's coal industry's production improving after the floods at the beginning of the year however the peak of the surplus has probably passed.
In seasonally adjusted terms, non-rural goods exports edged up $14 million to $19 billion in October, helped by mineral fuels which rose $144 million, or 7 per cent in the month.
Manufactured goods exports, however, fell $84 million, or 6 per cent, while coal, coke and briquettes shipments abroard fell $75 million, or 2 per cent.
Goods and services imports rose 2 per cent, or $605 million, to $25.7 billion in October, with capital goods rising $60 million or 1 per cent.
"We had a big rise in capital goods imports coming through that is reflecting the strong business investment boom," Ms Deda said.
Import boost
Moody's Economy.com analyst Matthew Circosta said demand for exports is weakening and that the trade surplus would continue to narrow.
"Softer commodity prices are flowing through to lower export receipts, while strong business investment and household consumption are boosting imports."
"Recent interest rate cuts will support domestic demand, which along with the rampant mining boom, will continue lifting the import bill and narrow the trade surplus," said Mr Circosta.
HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said rising imports are consistent with the solid domestic demand in the Australian economy.
"Some (demand) is leaking offshore, given the elevated level of the Aussie dollar," he said.
Mr Bloxham said the leakage is not just around online retail shopping but investment in the mining boom, which includes the surge in equipment imports.
Lumps, fines, coal
In October the price of iron ore plunged by 30 per cent, to about $US120 a tonne, as Chinese steel mills slowed production. Iron ore prices have since recovered to be about $US140 a tonne.
Exports of the premium lump iron ore to China fell $23 million, or 2 per cent, with volumes rising 8 per cent in the month while prices fell 10 per cent.
Hard coking coal exports to China fell 19 per cent, in the month, but rose 9 per cent to Japan and 11 per cent to India. Overall, hard coking coal exports fell 4 per cent, $79 million, in the month.
Semi-soft coal exports to China sank 50 per cent in October, by $107 million, with volumes down 47 per cent and prices 6 per cent lower, the ABS said.
Thermal coal exports to China rose $47 million, or 25 per cent, with volumes up 23 per cent, and prices up 1 per cent.
Sourced smh.com.au
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Coking Coal Price to Fall on Softer Demand, Mackenzie Says
Steelmaking coal prices will fall below $240 a metric ton by the fourth quarter of 2012 as demand eases and supply improves following flooding in Australia, forecaster Wood Mackenzie Ltd. said.
“Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year,” Prakash Sharma, coal market analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in an e-mailed statement. “Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity - reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Contract coal prices settled at $285 a ton for the current quarter, 10 percent lower than the previous three months, and after reaching a record following flooding at the start of the year in Australia, the world’s biggest exporter.
The longer-term demand outlook remains strong, which will likely trigger further takeover activity in the sector, Sharma said.
“Demand growth will be led by emerging markets, with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030,” he said. “China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60 percent of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
(sourced bloomberg)

Thursday, October 13, 2011
Australian coal producer Gujarat NRE downplays carbon tax impact
A major Illawarra coal producer said carbon tax will not affect its plans to massively expand its operations.
Gujarat NRE has told the Australian stock exchange, the carbon tax will not affect its future growth and that it expects the tax to cost $2.70 per tonne of coal produced.
Mr Arun Jagatramka Chairman says the company will become one of Australia largest producers of hard coking coal to meet the growing demand in India.
He said that "The Indian steel industry today is producing about 70 million tonnes we expect India to be going to 200 million tonnes in less than 10 years' time that will require an additional 100 million tonnes of coking coal which is more than the current production of hard coking coal in Australia."
Mr Jagatramka says the Illawarra coal supplies are well suited to long-wall mining. He said that "The quality that we have here in the Illawarra is part of the top 10% in quality perspective of all the coke and quality in the world."
Meanwhile, Gujurat NRE has officially unveiled its new long-wall mining equipment which will be based at the company Russell Vale mine site north of Wollongong.
The company says the new equipment to benefit the region, with the machine expected to allow for up to three million tonnes of coal to be mined within the next three years.
The mine expansion has won approval from New South Wales Planning but has been referred to the Planning Assessment Commission for final approval due to the late disclosure of political donations.
(Sourced from www.abc.net.au)
Coking coal price may surge again on rain in Queensland
Bloomberg reported that the record rains that flooded Australia and led to surging coking coal prices last year are brewing again.
Australia Bureau of Meteorology said the chances of above average rainfall in parts of Northern Queensland in the rest of the year are 65% to 70%. One contributor is the returning La Nina weather event that cooling ocean temperatures and stronger trade winds are indicating may return this quarter.
Mr Andrew Watkins the bureau manager of climate prediction said “Last year was a near record La Nina event, possibly the second strongest since 1917-1918. About 50% of the time a La Nina follows a La Nina so it’s not that uncommon to have a double whammy.”
The previous La Nina, Australia most expensive natural disaster, shut mines and sent coal to a record USD 330 a tonne in the April to June quarter.
The prospect of disrupted supply from the world biggest exporter led Citigroup Inc analyst Mr Daniel Hynes to say coal may spike more than 20% to about USD 350 per tonne if the disruption is as severe as last summer.
Macquarie Group Ltd said a lack of inventory at steel mills could well cause a degree of panic should the forecast La Nina bring more rain to Queensland, disrupting supply. BHP Billiton Ltd the world biggest producer of coking coal with mines in Queensland Bowen Basin recorded a 30% jump in earnings from the fuel in fiscal 2011 because of higher prices even as the bad weather cut output.
Mr Richard Knights a mining analyst at Liberum Capital Ltd said “The impact on the coking coal market is enormous if the Bowen Basin is out of action in London said. A prolonged period of supply disruption would mean a sharp rise in the next quarterly contract.”
Current indicators show that a potential La Nina for the 2011-12 wet seasons will be weaker than the previous one that produced one of the strongest events on record, Atmospheric and oceanic indicators continue to show favorable odds towards a La Nina event.
(Sourced from Bloomberg)
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Anglo Pacific looks to second half
By Martin Li, Investors chronicle
Disruption from flooding in the first quarter and a planned realignment of mining in the second quarter resulted in coking coal production from the Kestrel mine in Australia, which is Anglo Pacific's key royalty earner, falling by 39 per cent. However, coking coal prices in the six months increased from $220 (£135) per tonne last year to over $310, which offset the lower output.
After a solid performance in a challenging first half, the group is well placed to make progress in the second half, which will be boosted by the first royalties from the El Valle gold-copper mine in Spain. This entered production in June and increases the number of producing royalties in the group's portfolio to five. Reflecting its preference for steelmaking projects, Anglo Pacific has acquired a royalty over chromite deposits in Ontario, Canada, and one over the Isua iron ore project in Greenland being developed by London Mining.
Gains on the sale of investments totalled £7.5m in the six-month period, compared with £17.4m in the first half of last year. Investments are held primarily as a source of future royalties and are sold when the prospect of such royalties appears unlikely. Prior to these results, Liberum Capital was forecasting full-year EPS of 26.5p.
Indonesia becomes Second Largest Coking Coal Exporter
Indonesia, the largest thermal coal exporter in the world now becomes second biggest coking coal exporter to Japan. Indonesian’s coking coal exports to Japan claimed 14.40 percent in June compared to May's exports.
Indonesia has exported 742,215 tones of coking coal to Japan in June 2011, up 14.40 percent from previous month. The exported coking coal price was at US$ 144.83/tonne, slightly below from May's export price of US$ 152.65/tonne, according to data released by Ministry of Finance of Japan.
According to ministry’s data, Indonesia is the second biggest exporter of coking coal to Japan followed by Canada in June 2011. Australia the largest coking coal exporter in the world has shipped the biggest quantity of coking coal to Japan, which has exported 3.14 million tones in the June 2011, up 13.6 percent from the previous month.
The average price of Australian’s coking coal sold at US$ 280.51/tonne, up US$ 31.33 compared to May's price of US$ 249.18/ton.
Canada was the third largest coking coal exporter, which has shipped 732,338 tones slightly lesser than Indonesian export in June. The Canadian coking coal was sold at US$ 304.35/ton in June, up US$ 58.87 compared to May's price of US$ 245.48/ton. (sourced coalspot)
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Indonesia becomes second largest coking coal exporter
Indonesia, the largest thermal coal exporter in the world now becomes second biggest coking coal exporter to Japan. Indonesian’s coking coal exports to Japan claimed 14.40 percent in June compared to May's exports.
Indonesia has exported 742,215 tones of coking coal to Japan in June 2011, up 14.40 percent from previous month. The exported coking coal price was at US$ 144.83/tonne, slightly below from May's export price of US$ 152.65/tonne, according to data released by Ministry of Finance of Japan.
According to ministry’s data, Indonesia is the second biggest exporter of coking coal to Japan followed by Canada in June 2011. Australia the largest coking coal exporter in the world has shipped the biggest quantity of coking coal to Japan, which has exported 3.14 million tones in the June 2011, up 13.6 percent from the previous month.
The average price of Australian’s coking coal sold at US$ 280.51/tonne, up US$ 31.33 compared to May's price of US$ 249.18/ton.
Canada was the third largest coking coal exporter, which has shipped 732,338 tones slightly lesser than Indonesian export in June. The Canadian coking coal was sold at US$ 304.35/ton in June, up US$ 58.87 compared to May's price of US$ 245.48/ton.
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Monday, July 11, 2011
RPT-Coal miners say Australia carbon tax treatment unfair
By James Regan
SYDNEY, July 10 (Reuters) - Australia's powerful coal mining industry on Sunday warned it was being unfairly singled out under the country's new carbon emissions trading scheme, predicting it will lead to job losses and fewer collieries at a time when buyers are paying top dollar for coal.
Xstrata , one of the country's biggest coal mining companies, said it was "disappointed at the government's lack of genuine consultation" before unveiling its plan to slap a carbon tax of A$23 a tonne on its 500 worst polluters.
Australia, the world's biggest coking coal exporter, relies on coal to generate 80 percent of its electricity, accounting for 37 percent of national emissions. Coal is also one of the nation's top export earners, worth A$46 billion in overseas sales last year.
Around 40,000 people work in Australian coal mines and a further 100,000 indirectly, according to sector estimates.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced coal miners, steel and aluminium manufacturers and other heavy emitters of carbon gas polluters would pay a A$23 ($24.70) a tonne carbon tax rising annually to A$25.40, before shifting to market-based emissions regime in mid-2015.
Australia is the rich world's worst per capita greenhouse gas emitter due to a heavy reliance on coal-fired power stations for electricity.
Under the plan, some sectors, including aluminium, zinc refining and steel making will be given free permits covering 94.5 percent of average industry emissions for the first three years.
Gillard has also called for the full or part-shut down of the most emissions intensive electricity generators before 2020, removing up to 2,000 megawatts of capacity and replace older coal-fired power stations with cleaner ones.
"The Government has appeased some industries for political expediency but has ignored the concerns of Australia's biggest export industry and all of the small business people and employees who depend on it for their survival," said Ralph Hillman, chief executive of the Australian Coal Association.
"The government and Greens are imposing costs that none of our international competitors face, and cannot be justified in transitioning the Australian industry to a low carbon future," said Mitch Hooke, chief executive of the Minerals Council of Australia.
"It will simply export investment, jobs, global market share and emissions offshore."
The coal sector is worried too that a A$1.3 billion compensation package unveiled by Gillard to help the worst emissions intensive coal mines adjust is inadequate.
"Our concern is how far that is going to go," said Dylan Byrne, partner, head of a national sustainability advisory group for accountancy BDO.
"There are potentially a lot of mines in parts of Australia that will not see any of that money," Byrne said.
Miners are complaining that the added cost to control emissions comes in the midst of an up-cycle in the market.
A benchmark price settlement negotiated by Anglo American was struck at $315 a tonne for the third quarter with Asian mills, just beneath a record high of $330 agreed in the second quarter. Australian thermal coal sells for around $122 a tonne.
Australia's top coal miners, including BHP Billiton , Rio Tinto RIO.L> and Peabody Energy each sell at around the same price.
At the starting point of A$23 a tonne, the tax would increase the cost of making coal by more than A$1.80 per tonne, according to the Australian Coal Association.
The leader of the Australian Greens party, Bob Brown, has infuriated coal miners by saying he would like to see the industry shut down altogether -- a move mining lobbyists predict would cost the economy between A$29-billion and A$36-billion a year.
Alternative energy interests hailed the Gillard plan, predicting it will lift interest in building more wind farms, solar power stations and recycling centers.
"We will see solar on steroids," said John Grimes, chief executive of the Australian Solar Energy Society.
"We are finally penalising pollution and rewarding clean energy. That will deliver substantial investment in solar power and position Australia as a solar nation," Grimes said.
Simon Bennison, chief executive officer of the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies, disagreed: "Australia`s sovereign risk continues to take a battering, to the detriment of investment, whilst key trading competitor countries continue to emit high levels of carbon dioxide and not incur the same carbon pricing costs as their Australian counterparts," he said.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Macarthur Coal stays in the black and then some

By Rachel Hewitt, From Herald Sun
Feb24, 2011 12:00AM
QUEENSLAND's flood disaster hasn't dampened Macarthur Coal's bottom line, with the miner more than tripling its half-year profit thanks to surging commodity prices.
The Bowen Basin producer, which exports coal for steelmaking, yesterday unveiled a $141.3 million profit and three-fold increase in its dividend. Soaring prices drove sales revenue more than $100 million higher.
The release of Macarthur's results came amid reports that mining giant BHP Billiton is pushing for a shift to monthly coking coal pricing in contract talks with Japanese steelmakers, a move that would give miners greater access to surging spot market prices. Macarthur chief Nicole Hollows yesterday declined to comment on how high prices might go, but she added: "I think it's fair to say that the price is definitely going up.
"The quantum of that increase will ultimately depend on supply constraints but also I think a determining factor will be what price China and India are prepared to pay," she said.
Macarthur's profit was also bolstered by a $40 million one-off gain because Gloucester Coal exercised an option to increase its interest in the venture.
Queensland's big wet forced Macarthur in December to enact a "force majeure" contract clause allowing it to miss deliveries due to unforeseen events.
Macarthur declared a 24c interim dividend to be paid on April 11 to shareholders registered by March 18.
Tags:Gloucester coal, force majeure, interim dividend, shareholders,(sourced:Herald Sun)
Monday, February 14, 2011
Australian Coking Coal Drops a Second Week; European Prices Fall
Australian coking coal fell for a second week. Benchmark European coal derivatives declined for the first time in three days.
Hard prime coking coal from Australia sold for $318.25 a metric ton on average in the week to Feb. 11, down 2.1 percent from $325 the week before, according to Petersfield, England- based researcher IHS McCloskey.
Thermal coal from South Africa’s Richards Bay, site of the continent’s biggest export facility for the fuel, declined 5 percent to an average $114.89 a ton for the week, McCloskey said. That’s the lowest price since the week ended Dec. 17.
Coal for delivery to Amsterdam, Rotterdam or Antwerp with settlement next year fell 0.4 percent to $117 a ton at 11:20 a.m. in London. The data are drawn from information supplied by ICAP Plc, GFI Group Inc., Spectron Group Ltd., Tullett Prebon Plc, Credit Suisse Group AG, McCloskey, Bloomberg and Tradition Financial Services.
(By Nicholas Larkin,London sourced;bloomberg)
Tags:Australian coking coal prices, benchamark, European coal derivatives, declined, hard prime coking coal, IHS McCloskey, South African thermal coal prices, Richards Bay Coal Terminal, coal for delivery to Amsterdam,Rotterdam,Antwerp, ICAP Plc,GFI Group Inc, Spectron Group Limited, Tullett Prebon Plc, Credit Suisse Group AG,
