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Friday, May 20, 2011

China daily crude steel output at record high early May

Fri May 20, 2011 10:21am GMT
* Daily output at new record of 1.95 mln T
* Production over 1.9 mln T since early Feb
* Falling stockpiles point to healthy demand
By David Stanway and Ruby Lian

BEIJING/SHANGHAI, May 20 (Reuters) - Daily output of crude steel in China reached 1.9467 million tonnes in the first 10 days of May, with production at record levels despite worries about power shortages and the impact of Beijing's monetary tightening policies.

Industry consultancy Mysteel, citing data from the China Iron and Steel Association, said output was up 0.29 percent from May 1-10 compared with the previous 10 days.

Earlier CISA figures put daily output from April 21-30 at 1.941 million tonnes, with average production for the whole of April standing at a record 1.931 million tonnes.

Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics issued last week showed daily output in April at an even higher level of 1.968 million tonnes.

Despite grumbling from the China Iron and Steel Association and the country's industry ministry, China's steel mills have been producing around 1.9 million tonnes a day since the end of February, compared with about 1.7 million tonnes over 2010.

The second quarter is traditionally a strong season for steel and this year the sector has headed off a series of fresh problems, including the winding down of a state stimulus package and a tougher monetary regime that has reduced the amount of available credit.

Analysts predict output will stay near historical highs even in the face of power shortages and smelter closures as the quarter comes to an end.

"Steel production will very likely stay around 1.9 million tonnes on a daily basis over the course of this year, but especially in the second quarter," said Cai Peipei, an analyst with Tebon Securities.

GLUT OR NOT?

Daily output in April amounts to 718 million tonnes on an annualised basis, 15 percent higher than last year's total production.

CISA's secretary general Zhang Changfu told a news briefing at the end of April that overcapacity was eating into profit and that much of the blame could be placed on private mills. He said that overcapacity meant that steel prices could not rise to match the increases in raw material costs.

Steel product prices are currently close to record highs, with a tonne of rebar on the Shanghai spot market currently selling for 4,940 yuan ($759.4) per tonne, just short of the 5,000 yuan peak reached in mid-February, according to Mysteel.

Product stockpiles have been falling since the new year. Data from Mysteel put trader rebar stocks at 6.1 million tonnes at the end of April, compared with 7.7 million tonnes in early March.

Figures from the Ministry of Commerce show that construction steel stockpiles in 29 major cities fell 12 percent from March to April, ending the month at 8.56 million tonnes.

CISA's own figures for April also show an inventory decline of 13.83 percent compared with March. ($1 = 6.505 yuan) (Editing by Jacqueline Wong, sourced Thomson Reuters)

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