New York (Platts)
A return of export volumes of coking coal from the east coast of Australia and in iron ore volumes from Brazil could lead to a recovery of Capesize freight rates during the course of 2011, New York-listed dry bulk ship owner Genco Shipping & Trading said Thursday.
Speaking at the company's fourth-quarter earnings call, Robert Buchanan, president of Genco, said the disruptions caused by the severe flooding in Queensland in December and January and weather-related delays to iron ore shipments from Brazil and South Africa, accounted for approximately 5% of global coal and iron ore seaborne trade, quoting estimates from commodities and ship broking group ICAP.
He also said that a cold winter with high snowfall in the US had limited the amount of coking coal shipments from the US east coast to make up for shortfalls of shipments from Queensland.
Earlier Thursday, Asian coal consumers told Platts that Rio Tinto had lifted a force majeure on its Kestrel semi-hard coking coal brand after almost two months. A Rio Tinto Coal Australia spokesman confirmed that force majeure had been lifted from both the Blair Athol Mine in Queensland and from the Kestrel Mine.
Kestrel is believed to be the first major Australian coking coal brand to have a force majeure lifted since the flooding.
The Kestrel mine supplies 4.2 million mt of coking and thermal coal to customers worldwide.
Buchanan said the expected influx of new ships from the shipyards this year may not be as bad as appeared on paper, because of the likelihood of up to 40% slippage in delivery schedules, following a trend seen in the last few years.
He conceded that the effect of China's tightening monetary policy, in terms of increasing the capital reserve requirements of banks, and the Korea Lines bankruptcy were having a negative effect on sentiment, "but this is reflected more in the forward market."
Genco does not have any exposure to Korea Lines, which filed for the equivalent of bankruptcy protection on January 25. Korea Lines is one of Asia's largest operators of dry bulk tonnage and, according to analysts, fell victim of the collapse in freight rates, having chartered-in its fleet at much higher rates than can be obtained by re-letting the ships on the spot market.
Buchanan also predicted a hefty increase in the scrapping of dry bulk carriers, saying that 2.1 million dwt of dry bulk tonnage had already been scrapped this year compared with 5.7 million dwt in the whole of 2010.
"According to our internal company estimates, we calculate that the cash breakeven for [a fully amortized], 20-year-old Capesize is approximately $12,500/day," said Buchanan. However, the freight market is showing returns of around $4,000-$5,000/day.
Buchanan said it is the larger ships that get scrapped first, because of the wear and tear they endure compared with smaller vessels. "Think about the length and the twisting of the steel that goes on and add iron ore into the equation," he said. Iron ore exerts more stresses on the hull of a dry bulk carrier than any other cargo type.
He said that with a Capsize approaching 20 years of age, and its fifth special survey at a cost of around $3 million, with another special survey due every 2.5 years thereafter, several owners might decide that it is better to sell for scrap.
Buchanan said that 21% of the dry bulk fleet was more than 25 years old and 28% was more than 20 years of age.
He said prices offered by ship breakers were around $500/light displacement ton. "As long as the price of steel stays firm, the scrap price should stay firm," he said.
On Wednesday, Genco reported fourth-quarter net attributable income of $34.8 million, down slightly from $35.5 million a year earlier. In the full year it reported net income of $141.2 million, down from $148.62 million.
Genco saw Q4 voyage revenues climb to $129.9 million from $96.2 million a year earlier, helped by an expansion in its fleet. Total revenues were $130.7 million, up from $96.2 million a year earlier. In the full-year, voyage revenues rose to $447.4 million from $379.5 million in 2009. Total full-year revenues were $448.7 million, up from $379.5 million in 2009. (By Platts)
Speaking at the company's fourth-quarter earnings call, Robert Buchanan, president of Genco, said the disruptions caused by the severe flooding in Queensland in December and January and weather-related delays to iron ore shipments from Brazil and South Africa, accounted for approximately 5% of global coal and iron ore seaborne trade, quoting estimates from commodities and ship broking group ICAP.
He also said that a cold winter with high snowfall in the US had limited the amount of coking coal shipments from the US east coast to make up for shortfalls of shipments from Queensland.
Earlier Thursday, Asian coal consumers told Platts that Rio Tinto had lifted a force majeure on its Kestrel semi-hard coking coal brand after almost two months. A Rio Tinto Coal Australia spokesman confirmed that force majeure had been lifted from both the Blair Athol Mine in Queensland and from the Kestrel Mine.
Kestrel is believed to be the first major Australian coking coal brand to have a force majeure lifted since the flooding.
The Kestrel mine supplies 4.2 million mt of coking and thermal coal to customers worldwide.
Buchanan said the expected influx of new ships from the shipyards this year may not be as bad as appeared on paper, because of the likelihood of up to 40% slippage in delivery schedules, following a trend seen in the last few years.
He conceded that the effect of China's tightening monetary policy, in terms of increasing the capital reserve requirements of banks, and the Korea Lines bankruptcy were having a negative effect on sentiment, "but this is reflected more in the forward market."
Genco does not have any exposure to Korea Lines, which filed for the equivalent of bankruptcy protection on January 25. Korea Lines is one of Asia's largest operators of dry bulk tonnage and, according to analysts, fell victim of the collapse in freight rates, having chartered-in its fleet at much higher rates than can be obtained by re-letting the ships on the spot market.
Buchanan also predicted a hefty increase in the scrapping of dry bulk carriers, saying that 2.1 million dwt of dry bulk tonnage had already been scrapped this year compared with 5.7 million dwt in the whole of 2010.
"According to our internal company estimates, we calculate that the cash breakeven for [a fully amortized], 20-year-old Capesize is approximately $12,500/day," said Buchanan. However, the freight market is showing returns of around $4,000-$5,000/day.
Buchanan said it is the larger ships that get scrapped first, because of the wear and tear they endure compared with smaller vessels. "Think about the length and the twisting of the steel that goes on and add iron ore into the equation," he said. Iron ore exerts more stresses on the hull of a dry bulk carrier than any other cargo type.
He said that with a Capsize approaching 20 years of age, and its fifth special survey at a cost of around $3 million, with another special survey due every 2.5 years thereafter, several owners might decide that it is better to sell for scrap.
Buchanan said that 21% of the dry bulk fleet was more than 25 years old and 28% was more than 20 years of age.
He said prices offered by ship breakers were around $500/light displacement ton. "As long as the price of steel stays firm, the scrap price should stay firm," he said.
On Wednesday, Genco reported fourth-quarter net attributable income of $34.8 million, down slightly from $35.5 million a year earlier. In the full year it reported net income of $141.2 million, down from $148.62 million.
Genco saw Q4 voyage revenues climb to $129.9 million from $96.2 million a year earlier, helped by an expansion in its fleet. Total revenues were $130.7 million, up from $96.2 million a year earlier. In the full-year, voyage revenues rose to $447.4 million from $379.5 million in 2009. Total full-year revenues were $448.7 million, up from $379.5 million in 2009. (By Platts)
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