Iron Ore May Jump to Record $250/Ton in 2011, Credit Suisse Says

By Jesse Riseborough January 07, 2011, 7:05 AM EST
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The price of iron ore, the key raw material for making steel, will average 21 percent higher this year and may jump to a record should anticipated supply growth be curbed, according to Credit Suisse Group AG.
The spot price of iron ore delivered to China including freight costs will probably average $178 a metric ton, Credit Suisse analysts wrote today in a report. That compares with the $147 a ton average for 2010, according to The Steel Index.

The world’s biggest iron ore exporters last year scrapped a custom of pricing cargoes in 12-month periods and switched most sales to quarterly contracts. A jump in prices this year will hurt steel producers already facing a surge in costs for coking coal, the other key raw material, as floods curb supplies in Australia.

“Supply-demand conditions look extremely tight” in the first half, Credit Suisse said. “Should supply failures occur, however, we could readily see iron ore spot prices spike through previous $200 a ton highs towards $250 a ton in the second quarter of 2011.”
The price rose 0.2 percent to $171.30 a ton yesterday, according to the Steel Index.
Quarterly sales contracts for some iron ore suppliers are calculated based on the average price over the preceding three months with a one-month lag.
The second quarter of 2011 will mark the peak in iron ore pricing as new supplies enter the market, particularly from the second half of 2012, Credit Suisse said. “However any delays to these expansions will further tighten markets,” it said.
Brazil’s Vale SA, Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. are the world’s three-largest iron ore exporters. Rio and BHP both ship ore from operations in the Pilbara region of north Western Australia state.
Source: Bloomberg, Editors:Tony Barrett, Alastair Reed.Reporter: Jesse Riseborough in London.