Tuesday, 14 Feb 2012
BL reported that India is set to overtake China in global coal demand over the next two decades partially offsetting the sluggish offtake by its neighbor. However, both nations are poised to be among the top three economies by 2030 driving global fossil fuel consumption primarily driven by power sector demand.
According to BP's Energy Outlook for 2030 released recently, China's energy demand growth is projected to decelerate to three per cent annually over the forecast period against 6.6 per cent annually during the 1990-2010 period. This is due to a slowing GDP growth and rapid improvement in energy intensity. India, on the other hand, does not follow China's path and there is no surge in energy demand as further industrialization takes place.
The report said demand growth will slow to 4.5% annually for the forecast period against 5.5%. This dip in demand is attributed to improved energy efficiency, partly offsetting the needs of industrialization and infrastructure expansion.
The report said that India remains on a lower path of energy intensity and by 2030 it will consume only about half the energy that China consumes today, at a similar income per capita level as in China.
Currently, India accounts for a third of growth in global coal demand and is projected to increase its share of consumption to 14% from the present 8% by 2030. China, which accounts for two third of the growth in global coal demand will see a relatively slower increase to 53% from the present 48% due to a slowing GDP growth and rapid improvement in its energy intensity.
The report further said that Both China and India face challenges in growing domestic production fast enough to keep up with demand. Their growing import requirements drive further expansion and integration of global coal trade. Coal remains the main commercial fuel for the world's top two most populated nations. However, coal's share in the total fuel mix for India is projected to drop to 50% from 53% mainly due to domestic resource constraints.
(Sourced from BL)
Showing posts with label forecasters. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forecasters. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Monday, February 13, 2012
South Korea utility coal demand seen at 73 million tonne this year - KEPCO
Monday, 13 Feb 2012
An official at state-run Korea Electric Power Corp said that South Korea's five state run power utilities will need 73 million tonnes of steaming coal this year, of which 52% has already been secured. KEPCO did not provide figures for last year's consumption.
A utility source said demand last year had reached at a similar level, adding that earlier projections had put demand this year at up to 80 million tonnes, but a shift to high calorific coal after a nationwide power shortage late last year had reduced the volume of demand.
KEPCO and other utility officials said procurements this year had been made at an average of about USD 115 per tonne on a cost-and-freight basis, adding that most were made through long-term contracts rather than spot purchases.
KEPCO fully owns five utilities Korea East West Power Co, Korea Southern Power Co, Korea South East Power Co, Korea Western Power Co and Korea Midland Power Co.
(Sourced from Reuters)
An official at state-run Korea Electric Power Corp said that South Korea's five state run power utilities will need 73 million tonnes of steaming coal this year, of which 52% has already been secured. KEPCO did not provide figures for last year's consumption.
A utility source said demand last year had reached at a similar level, adding that earlier projections had put demand this year at up to 80 million tonnes, but a shift to high calorific coal after a nationwide power shortage late last year had reduced the volume of demand.
KEPCO and other utility officials said procurements this year had been made at an average of about USD 115 per tonne on a cost-and-freight basis, adding that most were made through long-term contracts rather than spot purchases.
KEPCO fully owns five utilities Korea East West Power Co, Korea Southern Power Co, Korea South East Power Co, Korea Western Power Co and Korea Midland Power Co.
(Sourced from Reuters)
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Coal India production target likely at 464 MT for FY13
Sunday, Jan 22, 2012
The production target for world's largest coal producer Coal India (CIL) is likely to be fixed at 464 million tonnes (MT) for 2012-13.
"In the preliminary meeting held last week, the Planning Commission has set a production target of 464 million tonnes (MT) for CIL for 2012-13," a government official said.
However, the Planning Commission, in a meeting to be headed by Planning Commission Member (Energy) B K Chaturvedi, is likely to take the final decision on the production target by the month-end, the official said.
Representatives from different ministries, including coal, steel and power are likely to participate in the meeting, he said.
Last month, CIL had lowered its production target for the ongoing financial year to 440 MT from the estimate of 452 MT in its annual plan.
The company had cited various reasons like heavy rainfall, strike and delays in the grant of forestry and environmental clearances to coal projects for the downward revision in the production target.
Earlier, CIL had asked the government to scale down its production target for the 2011-12 to 448 MT, fearing it will not be able to make up for the slippage in output in the first half of the fiscal.
The public sector company had missed its April-September target by about 20 MT, recording an output of 176 MT against the target of 196 MT.
The PSU had also missed its revised production target last fiscal too, recording an output of just 431 MT.
CIL had a production target of 460.5 MT for 2010-11, which was revised down to 440.2 MT.
(sourced BS)
The production target for world's largest coal producer Coal India (CIL) is likely to be fixed at 464 million tonnes (MT) for 2012-13.
"In the preliminary meeting held last week, the Planning Commission has set a production target of 464 million tonnes (MT) for CIL for 2012-13," a government official said.
However, the Planning Commission, in a meeting to be headed by Planning Commission Member (Energy) B K Chaturvedi, is likely to take the final decision on the production target by the month-end, the official said.
Representatives from different ministries, including coal, steel and power are likely to participate in the meeting, he said.
Last month, CIL had lowered its production target for the ongoing financial year to 440 MT from the estimate of 452 MT in its annual plan.
The company had cited various reasons like heavy rainfall, strike and delays in the grant of forestry and environmental clearances to coal projects for the downward revision in the production target.
Earlier, CIL had asked the government to scale down its production target for the 2011-12 to 448 MT, fearing it will not be able to make up for the slippage in output in the first half of the fiscal.
The public sector company had missed its April-September target by about 20 MT, recording an output of 176 MT against the target of 196 MT.
The PSU had also missed its revised production target last fiscal too, recording an output of just 431 MT.
CIL had a production target of 460.5 MT for 2010-11, which was revised down to 440.2 MT.
(sourced BS)
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Indian coal imports likely to reach 200 million tonnes by 2017
Wednesday, 28 Dec 2011
ET quoted the government said that India is likely to import 194 million tonnes of coal in 2017 as against 135 million tonnes at present to meet the demand of the power sector.
Mr Pratik Prakashbapu Patil Minister of State for Coal said in a seminar that "Current year, we have to import 135 million tonnes of coal to meet our power sector requirement. The demand will increase further as we are setting up new power plants. It is expected that we will have to import 194 million tonnes of coal in 2017."
The minister also said during the seminar organised by World Confederation Productivity Science (India) and World Academy of Productivity Science that with the passage of time, the country's dependence on imported coal would not come down and would go up instead.
He said that "There will be more dependency on imported coal. The dependency has increased from 6% to 13% in the last five to six years."
As per the Planning Commission, the demand supply gap for coal in the ongoing year is likely to touch 142 million tonnes with domestic availability of only 554 million tonnes against the requirement of 696 million tonnes.
Earlier, the Plan Panel had also said the country coal demand will go up to 1,000 million tonnes by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan necessitating about 200 million tonnes of imports to bridge the shortfall in domestic output.
According to the Planning Commission unless the widening demand-supply gap for coal was bridged, the projected shortfall of 200 million tonnes would have to be met through imports.
The commission has estimated domestic coal production at 770 million tonnes by 2017 on the basis of projected annual growth of around 7% in output.
As per a Planning Commission document, output in 2011-12 was expected to reach 680 million tonnes but the estimate was later scaled down to 630 MT in a mid-term appraisal by Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.
(Sourced from ET)
ET quoted the government said that India is likely to import 194 million tonnes of coal in 2017 as against 135 million tonnes at present to meet the demand of the power sector.
Mr Pratik Prakashbapu Patil Minister of State for Coal said in a seminar that "Current year, we have to import 135 million tonnes of coal to meet our power sector requirement. The demand will increase further as we are setting up new power plants. It is expected that we will have to import 194 million tonnes of coal in 2017."
The minister also said during the seminar organised by World Confederation Productivity Science (India) and World Academy of Productivity Science that with the passage of time, the country's dependence on imported coal would not come down and would go up instead.
He said that "There will be more dependency on imported coal. The dependency has increased from 6% to 13% in the last five to six years."
As per the Planning Commission, the demand supply gap for coal in the ongoing year is likely to touch 142 million tonnes with domestic availability of only 554 million tonnes against the requirement of 696 million tonnes.
Earlier, the Plan Panel had also said the country coal demand will go up to 1,000 million tonnes by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan necessitating about 200 million tonnes of imports to bridge the shortfall in domestic output.
According to the Planning Commission unless the widening demand-supply gap for coal was bridged, the projected shortfall of 200 million tonnes would have to be met through imports.
The commission has estimated domestic coal production at 770 million tonnes by 2017 on the basis of projected annual growth of around 7% in output.
As per a Planning Commission document, output in 2011-12 was expected to reach 680 million tonnes but the estimate was later scaled down to 630 MT in a mid-term appraisal by Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.
(Sourced from ET)
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Indonesia may produce 375 million tonnes to 390 million tonnes of coal in 2012
Thursday, 22 Dec 2011
Bloomberg quoted Mr Bob Kamandanu chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association said Indonesia expects to produce 375 million tons to 390 million tons of coal in 2012 to meet growing demand from India and China.
He said Indonesia will probably consume 65 million tons to 70 million tons of coal next year.
(Sourced from Bloomberg)
Bloomberg quoted Mr Bob Kamandanu chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association said Indonesia expects to produce 375 million tons to 390 million tons of coal in 2012 to meet growing demand from India and China.
He said Indonesia will probably consume 65 million tons to 70 million tons of coal next year.
(Sourced from Bloomberg)
Thursday, December 15, 2011
IEA: Chinese coal prices to impact global market in next five years
Thursday, 15 December 2011
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that in the next five years coal prices in the Chinese market will impact the global coal market.
In its statement, the IEA said, "Coal is the most important source for generation of electricity. The Chinese market is the biggest consumer of coal, with its demand accounting for over half of global coal demand." The IEA went on to say that in the coming five years (2012-16) any major development or decision in the Chinese market would be expected to have a significant influence on the global coal market and on electricity charges.
Tags: coking coal , raw mat , China , Far East , steel futures , steelmaking , mining , East Asia and Pacific
Sourced:steelorbis
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that in the next five years coal prices in the Chinese market will impact the global coal market.
In its statement, the IEA said, "Coal is the most important source for generation of electricity. The Chinese market is the biggest consumer of coal, with its demand accounting for over half of global coal demand." The IEA went on to say that in the coming five years (2012-16) any major development or decision in the Chinese market would be expected to have a significant influence on the global coal market and on electricity charges.
Tags: coking coal , raw mat , China , Far East , steel futures , steelmaking , mining , East Asia and Pacific
Sourced:steelorbis
Australia lifts FY 2011-12 iron ore export forecast by 2.4pct
Thursday, 15 Dec 2011
Reuters reported that Australia has lifted its forecast for iron ore exports by 2.4% to a record 460 million tonnes in 2011-12 as producers dig more mines to feed a growing hunger in China for imported ore to make steel.
Iron ore prices have weakened this quarter as questions persist over China's future growth prospects, but that has done little to deter mega producers such as Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton from earmarking billions of dollars to expand in Australia's western iron range.
A forecast for metallurgical coal was revised down, however, with the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics now predicting exports will drop to 150 million tonnes, versus 156 million in its forecast on Sept.20, after a series of floods and strikes hobbled output.
Australia is the world's biggest supplier of iron ore and metallurgical coal, also known as coking coal and used in smelting, with Asian steel mills, particularly in China, the key buyers of both commodities.
Australia, with a low population and an abundance of mineral wealth, is also a major exporter of thermal coal for power generation along with copper, nickel and gold. Exports of thermal coal are forecast to total 163 million tonnes in 2011-12, a modest upward revision from 155 million tonnes previously.
Mr Quentin Grafton executive director and chief economist at BREE said that "The increase in iron ore and thermal coal export volumes reflects recent expansions to mine and infrastructure capacity."
Australia's AUD 1.3 trillion economy is enjoying a once in a century mining boom powered by Asian demand and has been largely resilient to the last two financial crises in Europe and the United States. Economists and political leaders no longer complain their country is regarded as little more than a quarry supplying the emerging industrial powerhouses of Asia with raw materials.
Mr Grafton said that "Despite the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for some European economies, Australia’s export volumes for most commodities have remained strong in the second half of 2011, while prices for many commodities have remained at historically high levels."
According to BREE's latest quarterly commodities outlook, non farm commodity export earnings are forecast to climb to a record AUD 206 billion in 2011-12. That's down from its September 20th 2011 forecast of AUD 215 billion but still 15% YoY higher.
Rio Tinto, the world's second biggest iron ore producer, late last month raised its iron ore expansion target by 20 million tonnes to 353 million tonnes a year by the first half of 2015, from around 240 million tonnes a year now. There is also an option to increase annual capacity further to 453 million tonnes.
(Sourced from www.reuters.com)
Reuters reported that Australia has lifted its forecast for iron ore exports by 2.4% to a record 460 million tonnes in 2011-12 as producers dig more mines to feed a growing hunger in China for imported ore to make steel.
Iron ore prices have weakened this quarter as questions persist over China's future growth prospects, but that has done little to deter mega producers such as Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton from earmarking billions of dollars to expand in Australia's western iron range.
A forecast for metallurgical coal was revised down, however, with the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics now predicting exports will drop to 150 million tonnes, versus 156 million in its forecast on Sept.20, after a series of floods and strikes hobbled output.
Australia is the world's biggest supplier of iron ore and metallurgical coal, also known as coking coal and used in smelting, with Asian steel mills, particularly in China, the key buyers of both commodities.
Australia, with a low population and an abundance of mineral wealth, is also a major exporter of thermal coal for power generation along with copper, nickel and gold. Exports of thermal coal are forecast to total 163 million tonnes in 2011-12, a modest upward revision from 155 million tonnes previously.
Mr Quentin Grafton executive director and chief economist at BREE said that "The increase in iron ore and thermal coal export volumes reflects recent expansions to mine and infrastructure capacity."
Australia's AUD 1.3 trillion economy is enjoying a once in a century mining boom powered by Asian demand and has been largely resilient to the last two financial crises in Europe and the United States. Economists and political leaders no longer complain their country is regarded as little more than a quarry supplying the emerging industrial powerhouses of Asia with raw materials.
Mr Grafton said that "Despite the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for some European economies, Australia’s export volumes for most commodities have remained strong in the second half of 2011, while prices for many commodities have remained at historically high levels."
According to BREE's latest quarterly commodities outlook, non farm commodity export earnings are forecast to climb to a record AUD 206 billion in 2011-12. That's down from its September 20th 2011 forecast of AUD 215 billion but still 15% YoY higher.
Rio Tinto, the world's second biggest iron ore producer, late last month raised its iron ore expansion target by 20 million tonnes to 353 million tonnes a year by the first half of 2015, from around 240 million tonnes a year now. There is also an option to increase annual capacity further to 453 million tonnes.
(Sourced from www.reuters.com)
Monday, November 28, 2011
Coal Prices Not Likely to Recover in 2012 As China, India May Limit Purchases
November 28, 2011
Coal in Asia is unlikely to recover in 2012 from its first decline in three years as electricity-price controls prompt Chinese and Indian utilities to limit purchases of the fuel.
Power-station coal at the Australian port of Newcastle, a benchmark price for Asia, will average about $118 a metric ton next year, according to the median estimate of six analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg News. Prices have averaged $122 so far in 2011. Coal at Richards Bay in South Africa, which supplies Asia and Europe, will trade at about $111 a ton in 2012, down from $118 this year, the survey showed.
Power providers in China and India, Asia’s biggest energy users, are struggling to recoup their costs as governments restrict prices to curb inflation, reducing the incentive to boost electricity generation from thermal coal. China may slow imports of the fuel next year after increasing shipments by about 10 percent this year, according to the China Coal Transport and Distribution Association. Indian purchases may also fall, said Rahul Bhandare, chairman of Knowledge Infrastructure Systems, a coal trader.
“Where the two countries are alike is on the situation of their utilities, squeezed between high coal prices, both domestic and international, and regulated domestic power prices not allowing them to run at a profit,” said Emmanuel Fages, the Paris-based head of European energy research at Societe Generale. “Raising power prices is difficult for local authorities for economic and social reasons.”
Power-station coal at Newcastle with a heating value of 6,700 kilocalories per kilogram fell 10 percent this year to $113.60 a ton on Nov. 18, after climbing 46 percent in 2010 and 8.5 percent in 2009, according to data from IHS McCloskey, a Petersfield, England-based researcher.
The price for the fuel with a heating value of 6,000 kilocalories per kilogram at Richards Bay, Africa’s biggest coal terminal, fell 16 percent to $104.30 as of Nov. 23, according to McCloskey. It rose 69 percent in 2010 and slid 30 percent in 2009, the data show.
Power plants in China, the world’s biggest coal user, face the smallest profit margins in at least five years, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Company. Coal costs more than 95 percent of the wholesale electricity price at benchmark plants it tracks, exceeding the level in 2008, when the nation suffered a wave of blackouts, data compiled by Michael Parker, a Hong Kong-based senior analyst at Bernstein, show.
Huaneng Power International, the nation’s biggest electricity provider, reported a 79 percent drop in net income in the third quarter from a year earlier.
The Chinese government has kept electricity prices unchanged for more than five months as it focuses on fighting inflation, which Premier Wen Jiabao said last month was his top economic priority. China’s inflation rate has dropped from a three-year high of 6.5 percent in July to 5.5 percent last month.
Power rates paid by non-residential users were raised in 15 provinces in June, the first increase in more than a year, and fees paid by some distributors were boosted. Residential prices were unchanged. More than 70 percent of Chinese generators are fueled by coal.
Electricity output was 364 billion kilowatt-hours in October, up 9.3 percent from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That lagged behind the 13.2 percent increase in production by factories, which account for about 70 percent of Chinese power demand. Electricity consumption will rise 9.5 percent in 2012, Barclays said in a report.
India has been reluctant to raise power prices as the economy slows and the central bank tries to curb inflation that exceeded 9.7 percent in October. The Reserve Bank of India has lifted its benchmark repurchase rate 375 basis points since the start of 2010 and last month forecast the economy will grow 7.6 percent in the year ending March 31, lower than the 8 percent it estimated previously. The government faces at least five regional elections next year.
“Power tariffs are politically sensitive and are not often revised,” Devendra Pant, an analyst at Fitch Ratings in New Delhi, said in a Nov. 14 note. “State power utilities have large accumulated losses.”
Coal accounted for 66 percent of India’s electricity generation in the 2011 fiscal year, Pant said. The variable cost of producing power using imported fuel is about 3 rupees (6 cents) a kilowatt-hour compared with an average tariff of 3.50 rupees, according to New Delhi-based Knowledge Infrastructure, which imports about 4 million tons a year of coal.
Indian utilities bought 23 million tons from overseas in the first half of the year ending March 2012, compared with 55 million expected for the full year, Sabine Schels, a London-based analyst for Bank of America, said. The nation faces a shortage of 142 million tons of coal for power stations and steelmakers in the year, the coal ministry estimated in February.
NTPC, India’s largest power producer, said income from electricity generation, before interest and tax, fell 1.3 percent in the second quarter after fuel costs climbed 24 percent to 106.5 billion rupees. Total expenditure rose 7 percent, according to an Oct. 25 statement. Adani Power’s profit missed analyst estimates after fuel costs more than tripled in the quarter, the company said.
Electricity generation and coal demand may still be spurred by another increase in Chinese power prices. Shares in the nation’s utilities, including Datang International Power Generation and Huaneng Power surged in Hong Kong on Nov. 8 after Deutsche Bank upgraded its recommendation on the industry to “overweight,” saying the government may raise rates charged to distributors within months.
Sourced Bloomberg
Coal in Asia is unlikely to recover in 2012 from its first decline in three years as electricity-price controls prompt Chinese and Indian utilities to limit purchases of the fuel.
Power-station coal at the Australian port of Newcastle, a benchmark price for Asia, will average about $118 a metric ton next year, according to the median estimate of six analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg News. Prices have averaged $122 so far in 2011. Coal at Richards Bay in South Africa, which supplies Asia and Europe, will trade at about $111 a ton in 2012, down from $118 this year, the survey showed.
Power providers in China and India, Asia’s biggest energy users, are struggling to recoup their costs as governments restrict prices to curb inflation, reducing the incentive to boost electricity generation from thermal coal. China may slow imports of the fuel next year after increasing shipments by about 10 percent this year, according to the China Coal Transport and Distribution Association. Indian purchases may also fall, said Rahul Bhandare, chairman of Knowledge Infrastructure Systems, a coal trader.
“Where the two countries are alike is on the situation of their utilities, squeezed between high coal prices, both domestic and international, and regulated domestic power prices not allowing them to run at a profit,” said Emmanuel Fages, the Paris-based head of European energy research at Societe Generale. “Raising power prices is difficult for local authorities for economic and social reasons.”
Power-station coal at Newcastle with a heating value of 6,700 kilocalories per kilogram fell 10 percent this year to $113.60 a ton on Nov. 18, after climbing 46 percent in 2010 and 8.5 percent in 2009, according to data from IHS McCloskey, a Petersfield, England-based researcher.
The price for the fuel with a heating value of 6,000 kilocalories per kilogram at Richards Bay, Africa’s biggest coal terminal, fell 16 percent to $104.30 as of Nov. 23, according to McCloskey. It rose 69 percent in 2010 and slid 30 percent in 2009, the data show.
Power plants in China, the world’s biggest coal user, face the smallest profit margins in at least five years, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Company. Coal costs more than 95 percent of the wholesale electricity price at benchmark plants it tracks, exceeding the level in 2008, when the nation suffered a wave of blackouts, data compiled by Michael Parker, a Hong Kong-based senior analyst at Bernstein, show.
Huaneng Power International, the nation’s biggest electricity provider, reported a 79 percent drop in net income in the third quarter from a year earlier.
The Chinese government has kept electricity prices unchanged for more than five months as it focuses on fighting inflation, which Premier Wen Jiabao said last month was his top economic priority. China’s inflation rate has dropped from a three-year high of 6.5 percent in July to 5.5 percent last month.
Power rates paid by non-residential users were raised in 15 provinces in June, the first increase in more than a year, and fees paid by some distributors were boosted. Residential prices were unchanged. More than 70 percent of Chinese generators are fueled by coal.
Electricity output was 364 billion kilowatt-hours in October, up 9.3 percent from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That lagged behind the 13.2 percent increase in production by factories, which account for about 70 percent of Chinese power demand. Electricity consumption will rise 9.5 percent in 2012, Barclays said in a report.
India has been reluctant to raise power prices as the economy slows and the central bank tries to curb inflation that exceeded 9.7 percent in October. The Reserve Bank of India has lifted its benchmark repurchase rate 375 basis points since the start of 2010 and last month forecast the economy will grow 7.6 percent in the year ending March 31, lower than the 8 percent it estimated previously. The government faces at least five regional elections next year.
“Power tariffs are politically sensitive and are not often revised,” Devendra Pant, an analyst at Fitch Ratings in New Delhi, said in a Nov. 14 note. “State power utilities have large accumulated losses.”
Coal accounted for 66 percent of India’s electricity generation in the 2011 fiscal year, Pant said. The variable cost of producing power using imported fuel is about 3 rupees (6 cents) a kilowatt-hour compared with an average tariff of 3.50 rupees, according to New Delhi-based Knowledge Infrastructure, which imports about 4 million tons a year of coal.
Indian utilities bought 23 million tons from overseas in the first half of the year ending March 2012, compared with 55 million expected for the full year, Sabine Schels, a London-based analyst for Bank of America, said. The nation faces a shortage of 142 million tons of coal for power stations and steelmakers in the year, the coal ministry estimated in February.
NTPC, India’s largest power producer, said income from electricity generation, before interest and tax, fell 1.3 percent in the second quarter after fuel costs climbed 24 percent to 106.5 billion rupees. Total expenditure rose 7 percent, according to an Oct. 25 statement. Adani Power’s profit missed analyst estimates after fuel costs more than tripled in the quarter, the company said.
Electricity generation and coal demand may still be spurred by another increase in Chinese power prices. Shares in the nation’s utilities, including Datang International Power Generation and Huaneng Power surged in Hong Kong on Nov. 8 after Deutsche Bank upgraded its recommendation on the industry to “overweight,” saying the government may raise rates charged to distributors within months.
Sourced Bloomberg
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
JP Morgan cuts iron ore price forecasts drastically
Wednesday, 23 Nov 2011
Market Watch reported that JPMorgan Chase & Co has trimmed its forecasts for iron ore prices by 10% to 15% for the next five years in response to lower expected demand for the steelmaking commodity.
JP Morgan has cut its average price forecast as under
2011- - By 6% to USD 167.40 a tonne
2012 - By 16% to USD147.50 per tonne
2013 - By 14% to USD 150 per tonne
2014 - By 11% to USD 125 per tonne
2015 - By 13% to USD 105 per tonne
The company said in a research report published Tuesday that “We believe that high cost Chinese production will keep its place in the market and support prices at above normal levels for some time. However, we have lowered our demand projections in line with our global economists' estimates of world growth and this results in lower price forecasts.”
JPMorgan said “The supply side remains supportive and supply disruptions and continued delays in projects by the junior miners make us confident that the iron ore prices are here to stay relatively high for a few years.”
JPMorgan said “Spot prices for the commodity have swung wildly in recent weeks, declining more than 30% over three weeks and then recovering about 26% from the bottom of USD 116.90 per tonne. Going forward, the recovery and the sustainability of iron ore prices will depend on the strength of recovery in demand from Chinese steel mills, a potential recovery in European steel demand and an overall improvement in the general macro-economic sentiment.”
(sourced from marketwatch.com)
Market Watch reported that JPMorgan Chase & Co has trimmed its forecasts for iron ore prices by 10% to 15% for the next five years in response to lower expected demand for the steelmaking commodity.
JP Morgan has cut its average price forecast as under
2011- - By 6% to USD 167.40 a tonne
2012 - By 16% to USD147.50 per tonne
2013 - By 14% to USD 150 per tonne
2014 - By 11% to USD 125 per tonne
2015 - By 13% to USD 105 per tonne
The company said in a research report published Tuesday that “We believe that high cost Chinese production will keep its place in the market and support prices at above normal levels for some time. However, we have lowered our demand projections in line with our global economists' estimates of world growth and this results in lower price forecasts.”
JPMorgan said “The supply side remains supportive and supply disruptions and continued delays in projects by the junior miners make us confident that the iron ore prices are here to stay relatively high for a few years.”
JPMorgan said “Spot prices for the commodity have swung wildly in recent weeks, declining more than 30% over three weeks and then recovering about 26% from the bottom of USD 116.90 per tonne. Going forward, the recovery and the sustainability of iron ore prices will depend on the strength of recovery in demand from Chinese steel mills, a potential recovery in European steel demand and an overall improvement in the general macro-economic sentiment.”
(sourced from marketwatch.com)
Monday, August 1, 2011
Iron ore market may come in balance in 2015-16 - Ms Carroll
Monday, 01 Aug 2011|By Dow Jones Newswires
Ms Cythnia Carroll CEO of globally diversified miner Anglo American PLC said that global iron ore supply may catch up to demand around 2015 and 2016, but challenges in bringing new projects to fruition could possibly skew that timescale.
Ms Carroll told journalists that "Clearly that is not going to happen [In 2013 and 2014] because of the challenges in those projects.”
She said that China, which sits on the high end of the iron ore production cost curve, is increasing its production as an offset to the lack of supply.
Ms Carroll said global iron ore demand will rise 7% this year with Chinese iron ore demand rising 10% compared with 2010.
Iron ore projects are now located in areas that require significant investment in infrastructure such as rail, pipelines and ports. Furthermore, countries have more stringent environmental permitting processes, thus projects take longer to develop.
Ms Cythnia Carroll CEO of globally diversified miner Anglo American PLC said that global iron ore supply may catch up to demand around 2015 and 2016, but challenges in bringing new projects to fruition could possibly skew that timescale.
Ms Carroll told journalists that "Clearly that is not going to happen [In 2013 and 2014] because of the challenges in those projects.”
She said that China, which sits on the high end of the iron ore production cost curve, is increasing its production as an offset to the lack of supply.
Ms Carroll said global iron ore demand will rise 7% this year with Chinese iron ore demand rising 10% compared with 2010.
Iron ore projects are now located in areas that require significant investment in infrastructure such as rail, pipelines and ports. Furthermore, countries have more stringent environmental permitting processes, thus projects take longer to develop.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Australia evacuates coastal cities in path of big cyclone
* Cyclone may generate winds of up to 280 kph* Forecasters warn cyclone may sweep deep inland
* Evacuations under way in three cities
* Mines, rail lines closed; sugar crops could be badly hit
By Rob Taylor
CANBERRA, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Australia evacuated thousands of people from its northeast coast on Tuesday as a cyclone rivalling Hurricane Katrina bore down on tourism towns and rural communities, with officials saying it could even threaten areas deep inland that were ruined by floods last month.
Mines, rail lines and coal ports were closed in Queensland state as Cyclone Yasi headed towards the coastline. Up to a third of Australia's sugar crop was also under threat, officials said.
"This storm is huge and life threatening," Queensland Premier Anna Bligh said, warning the system was still intensifying and picking up speed on its path from the Coral Sea, with destructive winds expected on Wednesday morning.
Cyclone Yasi is expected to generate winds of up to 280 kph (175 mph) when it hits the northern coast of tropical Queensland state early on Thursday, matching the strength of Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005.
With a strong monsoon feeding Yasi's 650 km-wide front, the storm was also expected to maintain its intensity long after smashing into the coast and could sweep inland as far as the outback mining city of Mt Isa, some 900 km (600 miles) inland.
More than 400,000 people live in the cyclone's expected path, including the cities of Cairns, Townsville and Mackay, which are also key tourist areas and take in Australia's Great Barrier Reef.
Queensland, which accounts for about a fifth of Australia's economy and 90 percent of steelmaking coal exports worth about $20 billion a year, has had a cruel summer, with floods having swept the eastern seaboard over the past month, killing 35 people.
"There's no time for complacency," said Mike Brunker, mayor of the Whitsunday area near the Great Barrier Reef. "People in low-lying areas are evacuating to friends and family or, if they have to, leave town."
Satellite radar images showed Yasi as a massive storm covering almost the entire Coral Sea and moving towards Australia from near Vanuatu.
Among the areas in its path is the small tourist area of Mission Beach, which was flattened by Cyclone Larry in 2006.
"It's a beautiful day today, but all of the tourists have now gone and we're just preparing everything for the cyclone," Mission Beach resident Elvira Montgomery told Reuters.
"They are warning of a four metre tidal surge, so everything might all end up under water."
Authorities said Cyclone Yasi could be the most destructive cyclone to hit the area. A sugar industry official said it could threaten around a third of the state's sugar cane crop.
Island resorts in the Whitsundays and parts of the tourism hub of Cairns and military town of Townsville were being evacuated along with other areas in the danger zone, between Cooktown in the north and near Mackay, a port, further south.
Military C-130 transport aircraft also evacuated the main hospital in Cairns. Extra commercial flights were scheduled to cope with an expected exodus of holidaymakers and residents.
Police were also empowered to forcibly move people from danger zones.
"This is not a system that's going to cross the coast and rapidly weaken out," Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Gordon Banks said, warning winds could reach up to 280 kph and the storm could reach Mt Isa, 900 km inland.
"We could see this system pushing well in across northern Queensland as a significant tropical cyclone with damaging winds and very heavy rainfall," Banks said.
COAL INDUSTRY ON ALERT -- AGAIN
Queensland's coal industry, only just recovering from recent record floods, went back on alert on Tuesday, with at least one major mine closing down temporarily and rail operations suspended as the industry braced for the cyclone.
The country's largest coal freight company, QR National , temporarily closed two rail networks: the major Goonyella network, feeding into the export terminals of Dalrymple Bay and Hay Point, and its smaller Newlands line taking coal to Abbot Point, a company spokesman said
Global miner Rio Tinto shut its Hail Creek coal mine with the approach of the cyclone.
Queensland's coal mines are mostly inland and are still struggling to pump water out of their pits after flooding.
The Queensland Resources Council, an industry body, estimated coal miners would take until March to return to normal, even without the impact of cyclones.
Bligh said Yasi had the potential to cause powerful and deadly flash flooding in coastal areas. Most of the state's major coal ports were temporarily closed to shipping.
But she said the storm track had shifted slightly north, meaning flood devastated and coal mining areas of central Queensland may escape the worst of cyclonic rains.
"If there is any silver lining here, the movement of the cyclone slightly north has meant that when it travels west and moves inland, it is less likely to drop all of that massive rainfall into the central Queensland catchment areas that have already experienced flooding," Bligh said.
Last month's floods swamped around 30,000 homes, destroyed roads and rail lines and crippled Queensland's coal industry, with up to 15 million tonnes of exports estimated to have been delayed into the second half of this year.
Cyclone Yasi is expected to classified a "category 4" by the time it reaches the coast, similar to Cyclone Larry which hit the town of Innisfail in 2006, levelling sugar crops and causing A$1.5 billion worth of damage.
(Additional reporting by James Grubel in CANBERRA, Amy Pyett and Bruce Hextall in SYDNEY and Sonali Paul in MELBOURNE; Editing by Ed Davies and Sanjeev Miglani($1 = 1.003 Australian Dollars, sourced:reuters)
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