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Showing posts with label analyst. Show all posts
Showing posts with label analyst. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Indian steel majors go for marginal price hike

Wednesday, 09 Mar 2011

BL reported that some of the Indian steel makers have limited the hike in prices to INR 350 to INR 500 a tonne due to uncertainty in demand post budget.

An analyst said that there is uncertainty in the demand from the infrastructure and housing sectors due to rising cost of funds. High inflation and the likelihood of a further rise in key bank rates may force developers to delay projects.

He added that the slowing demand from the automobile and consumer goods sectors appears to have forced them from effecting major price hikes. (sourced from BL)

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Greek rating cut sparks fear in eurozone

Tue, Mar08, 2011
By Daily Mail

The debt crisis in the eurozone deepened yesterday after the rating on Greek debt was slashed by three notches.

Greece's credit score was cut from Ba1 to B1 - lower than Egypt and deeper into 'junk' status - by Moody's Investors Services.

It sent a ripple of anxiety through the financial markets and drove up borrowing costs in Europe's most risky economies, including Portugal.

The move also increased pressure on eurozone leaders to ease the repayment terms on emergency loans to Greece and Ireland.

It caused outrage in Athens where the Greek finance ministry called for tighter regulation of the rating agencies which failed miserably in the lead up to the financial crisis.

'Ultimately, Moody's downgrading of Greece's debts reveals more about the misaligned incentives and the lack of accountability of credit rating agencies than the genuine state or prospects of the Greek economy,' said a Greek finance ministry spokesman.

Having completely missed the build-up of risk that led to the global financial crisis in 2008, the rating agencies are now competing with each other to be the first to identify risks that will lead to the next crisis.'

Moody's said 'endemic tax evasion' and 'very ambitious' austerity measures meant Greece may struggle to repay its debts.

Sarah Carlson, Moody's senior analyst for Greece, said the risk of a default 'has materially increased'.

European leaders are at loggerheads over how to deal with the deepening crisis. EU monetary affairs commissioner Olli Rehn said: 'There is a case to reduce the interest rates paid by Greece and Ireland.' But Germany is opposed to such action.

Greek borrowing costs rose to 12.2% while yields on Portuguese bonds hit a record high of 7.5% and Irish debt was at 9.27% - similar to when it was rescued in November.

US$ 8 billion worth of infrastructure projects in pipeline in Indonesia -Wood Mackenzie


Tuesday, March08, 2011

India’s Increasing Demand for Thermal Coal cannot be satisfied without emerging coal areas in Indonesia - Wood Mackenzie

At Coaltrans India 2011 in New Delhi today, Wood Mackenzie says that emerging coal supply areas in Indonesia will be instrumental to meeting rapidly growing coal demand from India.

Drawing on information contained within Wood Mackenzie’s Coal Supply Service and Global Cost and Margin Tool, Presenter and Coal Research Analyst, Rohan Kendall said, “Indonesia will account for 40 percent of growth in seaborne thermal coal supply over the next ten years, with the emerging coal areas of the South Sumatra basin and Wahau coal field making an important contribution to this growth. There is US$8 billion of infrastructure projects in the pipeline in these emerging areas that will support export growth.”

Emerging coal regions are a good fit for developing economies, such as India, because the basins contain abundant reserves. These areas are experiencing upstream investment as Indian power generators such as Reliance and Adani look to secure coal supplies for new power stations. There are currently several ultra-mega power plants being built in India with a capacity of over 4,000 Megawatts each; and still more are planned. The projects currently in development are similar in capacity to those in China and are expected to be operational between the second half of 2011 and 2014.

Kendall expands, “Coal production costs are low in emerging basins in Indonesia, which is why they are attractive to Indian power generators. The costs of investing upstream to secure coal requirements are much lower than Indian power generators would otherwise pay if they were to purchase all of their coal on the seaborne market. Also, for power stations that are being built on the coast, it is more realistic to seek seaborne supplies which do not depend on India’s rail network for transport.”

Wood Mackenzie says in order for emerging thermal coal supply areas to fulfil their potential, infrastructure challenges need to be overcome. Kendall says, “There is currently insufficient infrastructure in these areas to support large scale coal exports. There are numerous projects proposed which combined would add 140 million tons per annum (Mtpa) of capacity. We believe that some of these are unlikely to progress given regulatory challenges.”

In summary, coal supplies from emerging basins in Indonesia are expected to increase strongly over the next ten years. The large reserves in these areas will be instrumental to meeting India’s future thermal coal requirements. Coal from emerging areas is cost competitive with established basins but the main question remaining is when and how the infrastructure issues can be overcome to bring the coal to market.

About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger.

Tags : Indonesian coal traders, suppliers, exporters, miners

Monday, March 7, 2011

Salzgitter outlook muted by raw material costs

Mon Mar 7, 2011 3:38pm GMT

* 2010 pretax profit 48.9 mln euros vs 44 mln in poll
* Sees 2011 sales growth of 15-20 pct
* Sees pretax profit doubling from 2010 level
* Shares down 3.6 percent, hit lowest in over 7 weeks
(Recasts, adds background and share price)

By Marilyn Gerlach

FRANKFURT, March 7 (Reuters) - Germany's No. 2 steelmaker Salzgitter AG (SZGG.DE: Quote) forecast earnings growing less than analysts had forecast this year, sending its shares down more than 3 percent to their lowest in nearly seven weeks.

Announcing a swing to pretax profit of 48.9 million euros ($68.6 million) in the past year versus an expected 44 million in a Reuters poll of banks and brokerages, the group said it saw pretax earnings more than doubling in the current year.

"The forecast of more than doubling the pretax profit was a disappointment and was weaker than expected," analyst Michael Broeker of Steubing said.

Broeker said it was also disappointing that Salzgitter's steel sections and sheet piling product segments -- which cater to the construction sector -- did not pick up last year.

Shares in the company, which has traditionally issued a conservative outlook for the year only to upgrade it in subsequent quarters, fell as much as 3.6 percent in early trade and were down 2.6 percent at 56.36 euros by 1124 GMT. Germany's midcap index was up 0.2 percent.

The stock hit a low of 56.53 euros, its lowest since late January.

ThyssenKrupp (TKAG.DE: Quote), the top steelmaker in Europe's biggest economy, has been upbeat for this year, expecting a 10 to 15 percent sales increase as orders from its home market helped it navigate global price pressures.

ArcelorMittal (ISPA.AS: Quote), the world's largest steelmaker, forecast a rebound in demand and prices at the start of 2011, signalling an end to a margin squeeze that hit the global steel industry late last year.
TUBES WEIGH

Salzgitter said its steel division -- which generates about a quarter of group sales -- will swing to a pretax profit this year from a year-earlier loss, boosted by economic recovery and a pickup in orders.

Also helping 2011 earnings, the technology business comprising mainly beverage bottling unit Kloeckner-Werke may break even this year.

But earnings growth is being limited by the tubes business, which generates about a fifth of group sales and is seen posting a decline in its result in this year.

Analysts have said contract prices for large diameter tubes used in the Nord Stream gas pipelines were fixed at lower prices at a time before spot prices of raw materials used in steelmaking soared to current levels.

Prices for coking coal, a key raw material for steel, rose by $150 last month to between $380 and $390 per tonne on a free on board (FOB) basis shipped from Australia, as devastating floods hit production from the world's top exporter.

Salzgitter said capacity utilisation at its plants was at a high level last year, particularly in the flat steel product segment, used mainly in the automotive sector, while selling prices of many products gradually recovered.

Germany's booming automotive and mechanical engineering industries have allowed steelmakers to pass on some of the high input costs to their end-clients.

According to StarMine, which weights analyst views by their track records, Salzgitter trades at around 21.2 times estimated 12-month forward earnings per share, a premium to ThyssenKrupp's 11.0 and ArcelorMittal's 12.3.

Salzgitter shares have fallen 11 percent over the past 12 months, underperforming ThyssenKrupp and the STOXX Europe 600 Industrial Goods and Services Index , which rose 22 percent and 32 percent, respectively, during the period. (Editing by David Holmes) ($1=.7131 Euro, sourced : Thomson Reuters)

Gold, iron ore to rise; copper to stay steady


Monday, 07 Mar 2011
By Euan Rocha and Julie Gordon (Reuters)

Forecasters addressing the opening day of the PDAC conference said safe haven buying should lift gold through record highs while iron ore is likely to regain momentum on the back of continued demand from Asia

TORONTO (Reuters) -

Gold should push higher from its near-record levels due to its appeal as a safe haven, while iron ore should regain its upward momentum on the back of red-hot industrial demand from Asia, forecasters told the world's larger mining conference on Sunday.

Copper, an economic bellwether due to its industrial versatility, should be well supported at its current lofty levels but may have trouble pushing significantly higher as mine production races to catch up to demand growth, they said.

Addressing the Prospectors and Developers (PDAC) conference in Toronto, forecaster Philip Klapwijk said he saw a "stronger case for investment in precious metals as a safe haven" as demand for base metals declines due to slowing global growth and political turmoil.

Klapwijk, chairman of metals consultancy GFMS, also said he expected global GDP growth to slow slightly this year as compared with last year.

Prices for gold and silver have risen sharply since the outbreak of violence in the Middle East and North Africa earlier this year as buyers turned to precious metals as a haven from risk.

Gold XAU= is holding within $10 of the record above $1,440 an ounce it set on Wednesday, while silver XAG= extended 31-year highs above $35.40 an ounce on Friday.

JPMorgan analyst Michael Jansen told a room packed to overflowing with more than 500 delegates -- from corporate chief executives to geologists to fund managers -- that he expects gold prices to average $1,465 an ounce this year.

His year-end target for gold is $1,500, he said, adding the gold production outlook was strong going forward.

"We think mine supply is easily on track to grow 3 to 4 percent year on year," he said."

His forecast is slightly more subdued other predictions, such as by Barclays Capital, which said in January it expects the metal to average $1,495 an ounce this year, and range as high as $1,620 an ounce.

GFMS said in a January quarterly forecast that gold may top $1,600 an ounce by the end of 2011.

Klapwijk said gold and other precious metals will also get some impetus as investors exit other traditional safe havens.

"We expect the sovereign debt crisis will not be confined to Europe and it will eventually spread to the U.S. and Japan ... It seems to be inconceivable that the U.S will be able to continue on its current path and maintain its 'AAA' rating," Klapwijk added.

More than 20,000 people are in Toronto this week for the annual PDAC conference. Attendance grows every year at the event, a key barometer of mining investment appetite. This year it has also attracted a handful of top government ministers from key mining jurisdictions.

CHINA LEADS DEMAND

As presenters rolled out their outlook from everything from gold to iron ore, and uranium to potash, there was one key word was in almost every presentation -- China.

Demand from the world's most populous country will help underpin demand for iron ore, the main steelmaking ingredient, said Phil Newman, chief operating officer of consultancy group CRU.

He said 95.1 pct of global steel production growth between 2007 and 2021 will be in Asia.

Iron ore spot prices IODBZ00-PLT surged to record highs near $200 a tonne in mid-February, but have since come off their highs to trade around $178 a tonne.

Newman said he expects prices to resume their upward push, but perhaps not until later in the year.

"Certainly in the first half of 2011 we see continued price pressures," he said.

"The good times will continue, but we are approaching an inflection point," he said, referring to in iron ore. ... Over the medium term (around 2015), we see prices drifting lower,"
COPPER DEMAND AND SUPPLY TO GROW

GFMS forecaster Mark Fellows pointed to strong fundamentals underpinning copper prices, but he did not see big near-term gains from a metal that has been on a steady upward churn.

Copper CMCU3 for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange has risen by two-thirds since June, hitting an all-time high of $10,190 per tonne in mid-February on concerns that demand for the metal will outstrip miners' ability to produce it.

Fellows said he expects a growing deficit in copper market in the second half of this year, with the market staying in deficit in 2012 and 2013.

He said refined copper consumption should grow 3.8 percent annually between 2011 and 2013, up from 2.6 percent in the past decade. Mined copper production growth of 3.8 percent between 2011 and 2013, well up from 2 percent production growth in the past decade, he said.
(sourced:Thomson Reuters )

Kalahari Minerals says in takeover talks


Mon Mar 7, 2011 11:25am GMT

* Kalahari confirms in talks with third party, may lead to offer
* Shares in Kalahari rise 13 percent

LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Kalahari Minerals (KAH.L: Quote) on Monday said it was in talks with an unnamed third party, which may lead to an offer being made for the company, sending its shares to an all time high.

Shares in the UK-listed miner, which holds around 43 percent of Extract Resources (EXT.AX: Quote) (EXT.TO: Quote), soared as much as 13 percent to a highest ever 293.50 pence on the news, as it said discussions were ongoing and that a further announcement would be made when appropriate.

Kalahari said it was also in talks to simplify its shareholder structure with Extract in a bid to combine assets with Rio Tinto in Namibia.

The company wants to combine Extract's Husab Uranium project with the neighbouring Rossing Uranium mine owned by Rio Tinto (RIO.AX: Quote) (RIO.L: Quote). It added that there is no certainty the parties will reach any agreement.

Extract's chairman told Reuters in February that the company had no intention to sell its Husab uranium deposit, the largest of its kind in the world.

Analysts have long said Extract could be an eventual target for Rio, whose Rossing mine is near Extract's Husab deposit. Speculation was renewed last month week when the two companies said they were in talks to combine their uranium projects.

Shares in Kalahari were up 10.47 percent at 11.06GMT, giving the company a total market value of 705.6 million pounds.

(Reporting by Lorraine Turner; Editing by Rhys Jones,sourced:Thomson Reuters)

Chinese steelmakers to bear heavy pressure of price correction


Monday, 07 Mar 2011

It is reported that an analyst in an interview said “EXW prices of large scale steelmakers may be stable in April, but will certainly witness a correction in May.”

Actually, analysts were not the only group who held the pessimistic attitude to market. Part of traders decided to stop accepting ordering from steelmakers due to upside down between EXW prices and spot prices. It is possible that the operation in H1 of 2011 may be similar to that in May and June 2010.

1. Pressures after continuous price adjustment

Large scale steelmakers like WISCO, Baosteel, Angang, Benxi Iron and Steel, Shougang and HBIS issued EXW prices for March delivery after Lunar New Year with main products, CRC, HRC increased by CNY 300 per tonne.

WISCO was the first steel mill to raise EXW prices with margin CNY 200 per tonne to CNY 400 per tonne for instance

1. Wire rod up CNY 200 per tonne to CNY 330 per tonne
2. HRC up CNY 200 per tonne to CNY 400 per tonne
3. CRC up CNY 100 per tonne tone CNY 300 per tonne
4. Galvanized products up CNY 200 per tonne to CNY 350 per tonne

Following WISCO, Baosteel also raised its March products prices

1. HRC up CNY 300 per tonne
2. CRC appliance plate CNY 260 per tonne
3. Auto plate up CNY 300 per tonne
4. Galvanized up CNY 260 per tonne
5. Slab up CNY 300 per tonne

After that, Angang also raised its EXW with growth margin similar to WISCO and Baosteel.

After EXW prices increased a lot, costs of traders and other end-users were pulled up rapidly. In addition, domestic steel prices showed plunge in the second week after Lunar New Year, showing upside down between spot prices and EXW prices. Part of traders and end users had to stop ordering. And they estimated that the upside down situation will not last long, possibly ending with steelmakers compromise to reduce EXW prices.

However, steelmakers may not cut its EXW prices so soon and given they bears heavy pressures. They may possibly give traders kinds of discount instead of direct price decrease.
(sourced:mysteel)

Tags :wire rod prices, galvanized products, auto plate, slab, Lunar New Year, Angang, Benxi Iron and Steel, Shougang,

Thursday, March 3, 2011

TATA Steel has no intention to exit from Riversdale


Thursday, 03 Mar 2011

Tata Steel has increased its stake in Riversdale Mining, Australia, by close to 2%. The move gives a clear sense that the company has no intention to exit Riversdale anytime soon, putting to rest speculations to the contrarily.

Prior to Rio Tinto’s AUD 3.9 billion offer for Riversdale in December 2010, TATA Steel had 24.4% stake in the company, now at over 26%

An analyst with an international research firm said: “Tata Steel has increased its stake yesterday morning. Its a clear indication that the company is not looking to exit Riversdale.”
(sourced from BS)

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Chinese daily crude steel output rallies by 6pct in the first 20 days of Feb - CISA


Wednesday,02 Mar 2011

1. China daily production of crude steel rallied about 6% in the first twenty days of February versus January.

2. The inventory of major steel mills increased to 9.46 million tonnes from 7.57 million tonnes posted in January end.

China Iron and Steel Association release in its latest ten day report that both crude steel output and steel inventory in the first and middle ten days of February eyed apparent rises.

Analyst said that the production rally is expectable and mainly due to the bettering industrial profitability.

The report shows that China daily crude steel output averaged about 1.81 million tonnes in the middle ten days of February far higher than January record of 1.7 million tonnes and about 1.8 million tonnes for the first twenty days of February also eyeing a big growth of close to 6% from January.

What worth attention is that the steel products inventory of major steel mills goes up to 9.46 million tonnes a sharp jump from 7.57 million tonnes in January ends. In the middle ten days of February the crude steel output by CISA members posted at 15.95 million tonnes and that for the whole Chinese steel industry is assessed at 18.14 million tonnes.

Mr Deng Qiling President of CISA earlier said that in light of the domestic and overseas demand, China apparent consumption of crude steel in 2011 is expected to grow by 5% to 632 million tonnes which means an increase of 30 million tonnes from last year.

Tags: Chinese domestic steel demand, February month output, CISA members
(sourced:mysteel)