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Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Warm winter across Europe has impacted negatively Coal demand - BRS

Wednesday, 18 January 12

With the Chinese New Year just a week away, all markets are slowing down. The drop in freight rates for all sizes has been significant over the past week with the BDI ending at 1053 points (-21.8%),the BCI at 1723 points (-26.2%) and the BPI at 1264 (-17.8%). The smaller sizes were also down, with the BSI at 971 (-12.7%) and the BHI 533 points (-4.6%), as stated by BRS in its weekly report.

Capesize rates saw heavy losses for the second week, with weather-related disruption in Brazil and Australia adding to the market’s problems. The Capesize 4TC finished the week at $9,116, which takes it back beneath the Panamax 4TC and the Supramax 6TC. Australia’s ports have slowly reopened, while Vale has downplayed the impact of its declaring force majeure on the grounds that it represents just 1% of its output. However the combination of these issues, and the forthcoming Chinese New Year, suggests there is little to prompt an upward correction in rates. Monday saw another slide, with the 4TC losing $618 to $8,498. In the paper market, February and March were trading at $9,433 and $10,267 by Friday afternoon.

Last week marked the beginning of a strong drop in Panamax rates. What everyone expected finally happened and we saw the indices freefall every single day with no positive sign for owners. The 4TC lost $2,000, going from $12,020 per day to $10,075/day. In 1Q 2012 the same number of Panamaxes delivered in 2Q+3Q+4Q 2011 will in theory be delivered according to our last updates. On top of that, a relatively warm winter across Europe has impacted negatively coal demand and stocks in China are still at a high level as we head into Chinese New Year.

In the Atlantic, the TA index dropped to $10,731 from $13,341 the previous week, while the market was already below$9,000/daily. The outlook is still bearishas ballasters from the east keephammering the Atlantic market. Thetransatlantic rate is now equal to the 4TC,instead of being at a 10%-15% premiumas in normal market conditions.In the Pacific, it was the same story.Rates dived from $8,895/daily to $7,398/daily with the 1year TC rate basis delivery North China at around $11,000/daily. Themarket was very calm there before theChinese New Year.

On a positive note,coal prices are losing some ground and might push China to move to imported coal. However looking at stockpiles, the discount should be significant

All countries were back to work for this second week of the year and the market continued its way down. The BSI los 12.6% to close the week with an average of the TC routes at $10,154. Prompt positions were available in all areas. The strongest drop was noticed out of the US Gulf where the route USG/Skaw-Passero lost 21.6%; a 57,000 dwt vessel was fixed at $18,000 aps USG redelivery Italy, whereas redelivery Far East was done in the mid $20,000s. It was the same situation on the Continent where a Supra was fixed at about $13,000 for scrap from ARAG to the East Med, while same was done at $16,000 the previous week.

In the Pacific, the volume of orders is reducing with the approach of the Chinese New Year. The market has become sluggish with stems of iron ore from India becoming increasingly rare. The dollar appreciation against the rupee has also led to fewer Indian coal Imports. Supras from Indonesia to India have now dropped $1,000 in the last week, to reach the low $6,000s, while Supras from India to China are now getting about $8,000.
Source: BRS via

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