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Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Japan's J-Power lowers 2011 Japan coal demand forecast

Tue May 31, 2011 10:47am GMT

NUSA DUA, Indonesia May 31 (Reuters) - Electric Power Development Co (J-Power) has cut its 2011 thermal coal demand forecast for Japan to 110 million tonnes from 120 million tonnes due to the impact of the earthquake, which knocked several power plants offline and depressed demand.

It is currently unclear when some of the coal-fired plants that were shut after the earthquake and nuclear crisis that hit the northeast coast of Japan on March 11, will come back online, Masato Uchiyama, the company's director of energy business told a coal industry conference on Tuesday.

"In 2011, our estimate for the thermal coal outlook for Japan has been decreased by 10 million tonnes from previous years to around 110 million tonnes per year," he said.

The revision also takes into account the recovery of coal demand in the damaged region and requirements from coal-fired plants not in the earthquake-affected areas that are expected to increase to some extent, he said.

Japan's coal imports for 2010 were 101.6 million tonnes, finance ministry data showed. Its overall thermal coal imports fell 13.4 percent last month versus a year earlier to 6.59 million tonnes, while imports from Indonesia dropped 22 percent to 1.19 million tonnes, as some coal-fired power plants along the northeast coast remain shut.

Uchiyama said that under the 2007-2030 strategic energy plan, Japan aims to build nine additional nuclear units by 2020 and another five additional units by 2030.

"This plan will surely be revised after extensive discussions because of the nuclear incident, he said. "Our review of nuclear policy is unavoidable," he said, adding that energy diversification may include more use of liquefied natural gas and renewables.

"In the foreseeable forecast (thermal coal) demand will be maintained."

Just last month J-Power, Japan's biggest thermal coal consumer, said it might buy millions of tonnes of coal more than it forecast in March after utilities asked the Japanese power wholesaler to increase its supply for the summer.

In March, J-Power said it would buy more than 20 million tonnes of thermal coal in the financial year that began in April, versus 21 million tonnes in 2010/11.

The earthquake and tsunami on March 11 crippled Tokyo Electric Power Co's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, raising safety concerns and making utilities keep nuclear reactors shut for maintenance for longer periods than usual to conduct extra checks.

During the height of the crisis, several cargoes of Indonesian coal bound for Japan had been delayed and diverted to countries such as China.

J-Power operates several large coal-fired and hydropower stations across the country and sells power to Japan's nine regional power companies. (Reporting by Rebekah Kebede, Editing by Ramthan Hussain, sourced Thomson Reuters)

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