By Finbarr Flynn and Dara Doyle
Ireland’s credit rating was cut two levels by Moody’s Investors Service to the lowest investment grade as the government struggles to lower the budget deficit and restore economic growth.
Moody’s reduced the rating to Baa3 from Baa1, leaving the country’s outlook on negative, according to an e-mailed statement today. That’s the same rating as Iceland, Tunisia, Romania and Brazil. Standard & Poor’s on April 1 cut Ireland’s rating one level to BBB+ with a stable outlook.
Irish taxpayers may spend as much as 100 billion euros ($145 billion) trying to solve Europe’s worst banking crisis as the country draws funds from last year’s bailout. Ireland is trying to convince investors at home and abroad it has finally plugged the hole in its lenders after four failed attempts following the collapse of the country’s property boom in 2007.
Irish debt restructuring is not a “plausible scenario,” Dietmar Hornung, a Frankfurt-based analyst at Moody’s, said in a telephone interview today. The country has a “good track record of delivering” fiscal consolidation, while the negative outlook reflects the “unbalanced risks” facing the nation.
‘Significant Threats’
The extra yield investors demand to hold Irish rather than German 10-year bonds has narrowed to 596 basis points from 687 basis points since central bank Governor Patrick Honohan disclosed on March 31 how much additional capital the country’s lenders need.
Fitch Ratings yesterday affirmed Ireland’s BBB+ rating and removed the threat of a downgrade, calling latest efforts to resolve the banking crisis “credible.” The ratings company maintained a negative outlook, citing “significant threats to an economic recovery and fiscal consolidation.”
Ireland’s central bank yesterday forecast gross domestic product to rise 0.9 percent this year, saying consumer demand will remain “subdued” as the government cuts spending. The European Central Bank last month projected the 17-member euro- region economy will expand about 1.7 percent in 2011.
“The country’s weak economic growth prospects are driven by the fiscal consolidation process, the ongoing contraction in private-sector credit, and a more adverse interest-rate environment,” Moody’s said. “The Irish government’s financial strength could decline further if economic growth were to be weaker than currently projected, or if fiscal adjustment were to fall short of the government’s planned consolidation path.”
‘Uncomfortable’ Place
Gary Jenkins, head of credit strategy at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London, said in an e-mailed note today that Ireland is now in the “most uncomfortable of places to be on the ratings scale, one false step from junk.”
Ireland’s government has injected about 46 billion euros into banks and taken majority stakes in four of them. Honohan said on March 31 it is realistic to expect Bank of Ireland Plc and Irish Life & Permanent Plc, the two lenders not already owned by the government, to fall under state control.
Finance Minister Michael Noonan said last month Ireland can sustain mounting debt levels if it fixes its lenders and maintains economic growth.
Other euro-region governments are also seeking ways to lower budget deficits and restore investor confidence. S&P last month cut Portugal for the second time in a week to the lowest investment-grade rating of BBB-. The country last month became the third euro nation after Greece and Ireland to ask for aid.
European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said yesterday that a debt restructuring in the euro region could cause a “chain reaction through the banking sector,” calling the environment still “fragile.”
“The downgrade is disappointing to say the least,” Bloxham Stockbrokers analysts including Dublin-based Alan McQuaid said in an e-mailed note today. “However, given the ongoing uncertainty over Ireland’s fiscal position, it is not altogether surprising.” (sourced Bloomberg)
Moody’s reduced the rating to Baa3 from Baa1, leaving the country’s outlook on negative, according to an e-mailed statement today. That’s the same rating as Iceland, Tunisia, Romania and Brazil. Standard & Poor’s on April 1 cut Ireland’s rating one level to BBB+ with a stable outlook.
Irish taxpayers may spend as much as 100 billion euros ($145 billion) trying to solve Europe’s worst banking crisis as the country draws funds from last year’s bailout. Ireland is trying to convince investors at home and abroad it has finally plugged the hole in its lenders after four failed attempts following the collapse of the country’s property boom in 2007.
Irish debt restructuring is not a “plausible scenario,” Dietmar Hornung, a Frankfurt-based analyst at Moody’s, said in a telephone interview today. The country has a “good track record of delivering” fiscal consolidation, while the negative outlook reflects the “unbalanced risks” facing the nation.
‘Significant Threats’
The extra yield investors demand to hold Irish rather than German 10-year bonds has narrowed to 596 basis points from 687 basis points since central bank Governor Patrick Honohan disclosed on March 31 how much additional capital the country’s lenders need.
Fitch Ratings yesterday affirmed Ireland’s BBB+ rating and removed the threat of a downgrade, calling latest efforts to resolve the banking crisis “credible.” The ratings company maintained a negative outlook, citing “significant threats to an economic recovery and fiscal consolidation.”
Ireland’s central bank yesterday forecast gross domestic product to rise 0.9 percent this year, saying consumer demand will remain “subdued” as the government cuts spending. The European Central Bank last month projected the 17-member euro- region economy will expand about 1.7 percent in 2011.
“The country’s weak economic growth prospects are driven by the fiscal consolidation process, the ongoing contraction in private-sector credit, and a more adverse interest-rate environment,” Moody’s said. “The Irish government’s financial strength could decline further if economic growth were to be weaker than currently projected, or if fiscal adjustment were to fall short of the government’s planned consolidation path.”
‘Uncomfortable’ Place
Gary Jenkins, head of credit strategy at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London, said in an e-mailed note today that Ireland is now in the “most uncomfortable of places to be on the ratings scale, one false step from junk.”
Ireland’s government has injected about 46 billion euros into banks and taken majority stakes in four of them. Honohan said on March 31 it is realistic to expect Bank of Ireland Plc and Irish Life & Permanent Plc, the two lenders not already owned by the government, to fall under state control.
Finance Minister Michael Noonan said last month Ireland can sustain mounting debt levels if it fixes its lenders and maintains economic growth.
Other euro-region governments are also seeking ways to lower budget deficits and restore investor confidence. S&P last month cut Portugal for the second time in a week to the lowest investment-grade rating of BBB-. The country last month became the third euro nation after Greece and Ireland to ask for aid.
European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said yesterday that a debt restructuring in the euro region could cause a “chain reaction through the banking sector,” calling the environment still “fragile.”
“The downgrade is disappointing to say the least,” Bloxham Stockbrokers analysts including Dublin-based Alan McQuaid said in an e-mailed note today. “However, given the ongoing uncertainty over Ireland’s fiscal position, it is not altogether surprising.” (sourced Bloomberg)
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