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Friday, April 15, 2011

Dry Bulk market keeps on falling on low demand and high supply- Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

Friday, 15 April 2011

The dry bulk market has kept its falling patern this week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) retreating again yesterday to end the session down to 1,309 points, a daily slump of 1.13%. On the positive side, the Capesize market stopped tis fall, to end the session marginally higher at 0.19 percent to 1,573 points. At the same time, the constant fall of the panamax sector finally led rates lower than Capesizes. Since the beginning of the year, Panamaxes had been the top earners of the dry bulk market, in a sector’s paradox that tended to become the norm. Yesterday, the panamax segment lost further ground to end down by 2.40 percent.

In its latest weekly report, Fearnley’s said that the Panamax market continued its downward trend this week. It was some mixed views beginning week when more fresh cargoes entered the market - but this was quickly absorbed by the overwhelming supply of available ships. “The rates in both hemispheres are slowly declining and we do not see any fundamental upcoming events in the near future which will have any positive effect to the rates. Next week is Easter Holidays in most European countries and we believe this also will affect the already slow market. For Continent positions doing Fhauls the rates are in the low 20´s region. Tarv´s paying low teens while in the Pacific the rounds are fetching very low 10´s. The period market has been somewhat none existing lately with only a few fixtures reported at around 15k lvl for short/medium periods” it mentioned.

As for the Capesize market, it said that the segment is heading for another low, as newbuildings continue to pour out of yards. “Spot demand is fair, despite recent natural disasters, but simply not sufficient to fully employ a growing fleet. Pacific rounds, although not covering operating expenses, are stable at just over usd 6k/day – the reference trade WAust/China hovering in the dismal usd 7.50-75 pmt interval. Atlantic has taken a further blow, with levels for the Cont-Brazil-China fronthaul trade dropping 10% w-o-w to come in at usd 20k/day, TA rates softening by a full 35% to usd 6250/day. A few key players still book period tonnage, at levels reflecting the presently inverted forward curve more than the current spot bloodbath 180kdwt newbuilding done ex yard prompt for 11-13 months at usd 15k/day, 180kdwt/built 2010 fixed prompt for 4-6 months at usd 12500” said the shipbroker.
Regarding the smaller ship types, “the Atlantic market remains flat - very little new/fresh business and slow activity. Considerable prompt tonnage remains unfixed. The USG pays very low 20´s for petcoke runs into the EMed/EMed. Short period dely in Atl on Supramax 53kdwt stands at usd 18500 with worldwide redelivery. TA rounds are being traded in the high teens. Pacific market very quiet as Chrtrs holding back their requirements and allowing tonnage to build up. Supras in N.China get close to 12k for trips via Indo to India. Iron ore from India expected to pick up with increased cargoes and buying interest from China thereby rates remain firm around 17k WCI/China and from ECI around 15k, but few ships seen ballasting to Indo as not much cargoes ex ECI. On Rich.Bay rounds Supras see around 15k basis WCI dely. Red Sea; ferts on Hmax/Supras are fixed at very mid-high 20´s pmt on voy bss to WCI. Not too much activity on short period as market bit volatile and speculative and hear index type vsl fixed at mid-teens” concluded the report.

Meanwhile, it’s worth mentioning the latest developments regarding India’s iron ore export plans. As it turns out, the Karnataka state government is challenging the Supreme Court's decision to lift the iron ore export ban. In a note, Jeffrey Landsberg from Commodore Research & Analysis, said that, Karnataka's Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa held on a conference stating that Karnataka will file an appeal with the Supreme Court. “According to Mr. Yeddyurappa, illegal mining and transportation of iron ore is still running rampant throughout the state and in all of India. His statement's echo similar findings from the Central Empowered Committee and Lokayukta that Commodore has published in recent reports. We will continue to monitor this development closely and will publish additional updates when more information surfaces. For now, the export ban remains set to be officially lifted on April 20. A significant increase in Indian iron ore fixtures has not yet occurred however. Only 4 Indian iron ore fixtures surfaced in the market last week, 1 less than the previous week and on par with the trailing four week average” said Landsberg.

Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

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