India will burn more coal than China in 20 years

Tuesday, 14 Feb 2012

BL reported that India is set to overtake China in global coal demand over the next two decades partially offsetting the sluggish offtake by its neighbor. However, both nations are poised to be among the top three economies by 2030 driving global fossil fuel consumption primarily driven by power sector demand.

According to BP's Energy Outlook for 2030 released recently, China's energy demand growth is projected to decelerate to three per cent annually over the forecast period against 6.6 per cent annually during the 1990-2010 period. This is due to a slowing GDP growth and rapid improvement in energy intensity. India, on the other hand, does not follow China's path and there is no surge in energy demand as further industrialization takes place.

The report said demand growth will slow to 4.5% annually for the forecast period against 5.5%. This dip in demand is attributed to improved energy efficiency, partly offsetting the needs of industrialization and infrastructure expansion.

The report said that India remains on a lower path of energy intensity and by 2030 it will consume only about half the energy that China consumes today, at a similar income per capita level as in China.

Currently, India accounts for a third of growth in global coal demand and is projected to increase its share of consumption to 14% from the present 8% by 2030. China, which accounts for two third of the growth in global coal demand will see a relatively slower increase to 53% from the present 48% due to a slowing GDP growth and rapid improvement in its energy intensity.

The report further said that Both China and India face challenges in growing domestic production fast enough to keep up with demand. Their growing import requirements drive further expansion and integration of global coal trade. Coal remains the main commercial fuel for the world's top two most populated nations. However, coal's share in the total fuel mix for India is projected to drop to 50% from 53% mainly due to domestic resource constraints.

(Sourced from BL)