China July exports hit record high, surplus swells

By Koh Gui Qing and Zhou Xin
Aug10, 2011

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's exports hit a record high in July as shipments to Europe and the United States proved surprisingly buoyant, allaying concerns that debt problems abroad may hold back the world's No. 2 economy.

But analysts warned it was too soon to declare that Chinese exports can hold up in coming months as debt worries, sluggish consumer spending and now wildly volatile financial markets plague its two biggest customers.

"Both imports and exports are likely to grow at a slower pace in coming months," said Li Xunlei, an economist at Guotai Junan Securities in Shanghai. "The global financial market turbulence may lead to a contraction in external demand."

July exports rose 20.4 percent from a year ago, the strongest gain since April and surpassing economists' median forecast for a 17.4 percent rise, data on Wednesday showed.

Imports were roughly in line with expectations, rising 22.9 percent in July from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said. Economists had forecast growth of 22.3 percent.

"China's trade sector is still facing great uncertainties," said Nie Wen, an analyst at Hwabao Trust in Shanghai. "Developed countries are forced to take austerity measures, and emerging markets may tighten (policy) as well to tame inflation."

Indeed, just hours earlier, the U.S. Federal Reserve took the unprecedented step of promising to leave interest rates near zero for at least two more years, painting a gloomy picture for the world's largest economy.

Noting that monetary policy risks are shifting to supporting growth from fighting inflation, China has signaled it may pause its 10-month policy tightening campaign for now.

Wednesday's data suggested sluggishness in the U.S. and European economies has yet to put a big dent in Chinese export growth, as many investors had feared. Instead, robust U.S. and European shipments helped pushed the value of China's monthly exports to a record high of $175.1 billion.

Although annual growth in Chinese exports to the United States in July was marginally weaker than June at 9.5 percent, the total value hit the year's high of $30 billion.

Annual growth of exports to Europe nearly doubled to 22.3 percent, lifting the value of sales to $35.1 billion. Export growth to Japan also picked up sharply.

BHP Billiton (BHP.AX)(BLT.L), the world's biggest miner, said on Wednesday it expected weak growth in Europe and the United States to persist for many years as they deal with their debt crises, heightening the reliance on China's fast-growing economy.

PRESSURE ON YUAN TO RISE

Other data this week showed that China's inflation hit three-year highs of 6.5 percent in July, and some officials have said that it has likely peaked.

But underlining the fine balance that Beijing has to tread between managing growth and inflation, July's brisk exports caused China's trade surplus to balloon to $31.5 billion, its widest since January 2009.

That could fuel price pressures at home and more criticism from its trade partners abroad that Beijing is keeping its yuan currency suppressed to sell more exports at their expense, allegations China has always denied.

As part of Beijing's policy to prevent the yuan from rising too quickly, it buys dollars earned from trade revenues. But Beijing injects more than 6 yuan into China's banking system for every dollar it buys, adding to a surfeit of cash that fans inflation.

So even if Beijing is reluctant to tighten policy now, it may need to step aside nonetheless to let the yuan climb more briskly if it wants to keep a lid on prices, analysts said.

"China's monetary policy has been kidnapped by foreign capital inflows," said Zhang Lei, an analyst at Minsheng Securities in Shanghai, referring to the widening trade surplus.

"Yuan appreciation is still one important option."

"CHINA IS OK"

To be sure, all signs suggest that China's economy has taken the steady policy tightening in the past year well in its stride, with its red-hot growth moderating only slightly so far.

Most market watchers continue to predict a soft economic landing, with growth easing to 8-9 percent, rather than a sharp decline.

Many economists agreed that the latest trade data showed China's growth engine is whirring along, with domestic demand solid.

Retail sales climbed 17.2 percent in July from a year earlier, albeit not quite as much as analysts had expected, while car sales rose 6.7 percent, picking up momentum from the previous month.

Imports of raw materials such as copper and iron ore saw strong gains from June, and the recent plunge in global commodity prices is likely to stoke more Chinese buying.

That should comfort investors looking to China to pick up some slack in global demand as other major economies sputter.

And China's relatively low -- albeit rising -- production costs could keep its exports competitive when times are rough, analysts said.

"In the past couple of months, the U.S. economy has been turning down, but China's export growth has held out," said Bank of America-Merrill Lynch's Lu.

"This shows China's economy is okay."

Beijing, which has repeatedly voiced confidence in China's growth in the past year, reiterated the line this week, though it has been clearly rattled by heavy selling in financial markets after the United States lost its top-rated credit rating on Friday.

Premier Wen Jiabao said on Tuesday that China's economy continues to show good growth momentum. But in a sign Beijing would rather err on the side of caution, he signaled China may soften its strike against inflation.

An official Chinese newspaper also said as much on Wednesday by declaring in a front-page editorial that Beijing would refrain from raising interest rates for now due to the rout in global markets.

However, China top economic planner stressed that inflation dangers remained, including the possibility of a new round of monetary easing in the United States which could fuel fresh price pressures.

HK, China shares hit fresh 2011 highs, more gains seen

Fri Apr 8, 2011 9:30am GMT

* Rotational buying in telecoms, China Unicom outperforms
* Hang Seng seen testing Nov '10 peaks by early May
* Shanghai hits second consecutive 2011 high
By Yixin Chen and Clement Tan

SHANGHAI/HONG KONG, April 8 (Reuters) - Hong Kong and mainland stocks rose again on Friday, reaching fresh 2011 highs, and institutional investors are expected to keep increasing their exposure next week based on attractive valuations and demand for materials.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index recorded a third weekly gain as institutional investors have turned bullish following a favorable earnings season and signs of China inflation easing.

The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.7 percent on the day and 2.1 percent on the week to 3,030.0, a fresh 2011 high, keeping the index above the key 3,000-point level and extending the gain on the year to 7.8 percent.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index closed up 0.5 percent on the day and 2.8 percent on the week. During Friday's trading, it reached a new high for the year of 24,468.6 before dipping to close at 24,396.1.

The next target for the Hang Seng is 25,000 -- which was tested in November 2010.

"The Hang Seng will probably top last November's peak sometime end April or early May," said Li Kwok-Suen, a fund manager with Phillip Securities Ltd in Hong Kong. "Institutional investors will mainly drive this rally, with hedge funds giving it a lift."

In Hong Kong, China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd led gains on the benchmark, closing up 6.5 percent on volumes that were five times its Thursday level and 2.3 times its 30-day average. The stock ended the day technically overbought, with a relative strength index (RSI) value of 77.5.

Analysts said there was some rotational buying within the telecommunications sector on Friday, with investors buying Unicom and selling its more established peer, China Mobile Ltd , down 0.3 percent on the day.

Still, several analysts expect China Mobile and HSBC Holdings , which have strong weight in the benchmark, to lead a broad rally on the Hang Seng next week, but suggest that other big banks and resource stocks might support.

HSBC, up 1.0 percent on the day, is trading in Hong Kong at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 times, below the 10-year average valuation of 13.1 times, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S data showed. China Mobile is trading at 10.1 times, lower than its average valuation over the past decade of 12.6 times.

A slew of IPOs in the next few weeks will likely support a rally, thanks to foreign inflows, which have increased in the last three weeks, analysts said.

SBI Holdings is expected to debut on April 14 with Hui Xian, Cheung Kong's yuan-denominated real estate investment trust, expected to debut April 15.[ID:nTOE72600K]

In its quarterly report released on Thursday, HSBC Global Research shifted to overweight on Chinese equity markets for the first time in a year, while remaining neutral on Hong Kong.

Analysts at the bank cited the effectiveness of Chinese monetary policy on keeping inflation contained. M2 growth slowed to 15.7 percent year-on-year in February, lower than the 16 percent target the Chinese central bank has set for this year. The base effect also suggests inflation will slow in the second half of 2011, HSBC said.

SHANGHAI INVESTORS BUY STEEL

China's main stock index ended up 0.7 percent on Friday as investors bought selected stocks, such as steel companies, keeping the index hovering above the key 3,000-point level.

"Generally, the index did not fall sharply after interest rate hike," said Ju Zihua, an chief analyst AVIC Securities in Jiangxi province. "But, a cautious mood is still hovering around the market, and we still need to focus on some previous hot shares and blue chips."

He said non-ferrous metal, coal, brokerage and other blue chips were in focus.

Turnover in Shanghai fell to 147 million yuan ($22.4 million) from 152 billion yuan on Thursday, reflecting investors' worries about inflation and further tightening of monetary policy.

Almost all steel makers listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen market rose as investors were upbeat that steel demand would be large in April following the earthquake in Japan.

Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union , the most active share, jumped its 10 percent daily limit, while Xining Special Steel Co rose 6.1 percent.
(Editing by Kevin Plumberg and Richard Borsuk, sourced Thomson Reuters)

China has no timetable for yuan's full convertibility: central bank official

Fri, Mar11, 2011 11:15:05 |Xinhua

BEIJING, March 11 (Xinhua) -- China's currency, or yuan, will see major progress in its full convertibility in the next five years, but no timetable has been set to achieve this goal, said Hu Xiaolian, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, on Friday.

Yuan's full convertibility is decided by many conditions. The pilot program of allowing yuan in settling cross-border trade will promote its convertibility under the capital account, Hu told a news conference on the sidelines of the ongoing annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC), the nation's top legislature.

Although China has not loosened its control of the capital account, the demand for yuan is on the rise, as the currency is getting more and more popular in the cross-border transactions, Hu noted.

According to the government work report delivered by Premier Wen Jiabao at NPC's annual session, China will continue to increase the use of its currency renminbi in cross-border trade and investment this year.

The country will "press ahead with making the RMB convertible under capital accounts" this year, says the report.

The central bank said earlier this month that it will expand the yuan settlement trial program to the entire country this year from the current 20 provincial regions as there is growing market demand for the business.