Sunday, Nov13,2011 Sourced AFP
LONDON — Coal is set to remain a major energy source alongside oil over the next 25 years on strong Asian demand, an uncertain outlook for nuclear power and despite the popularity of natural gas.
"Coal will be very competitive for a long time," Richard Jones, deputy executive director of the International Energy Agency told AFP in an interview.
"Coal will remain the main energy in many countries, principally China and India," Jones said last week as the IEA published its 25-year outlook.
"By 2020, when it comes to coal imports, India will be a new China as the largest importer of coal in the world." China is currently also the world's biggest consumer of the fossil fuel.
Companies in China and India are snapping up the world's coal assets to generate power, in particular electricity, that can fuel the countries' fast-growing economies.
Meanwhile new technologies helping to make coal a cleaner form of energy, and an expected decline in the use of nuclear power across developed nations after Japan's recent disaster, is set to boost demand for the mined fuel.
Germany recently announced that it plans to phase out nuclear energy by 2022 in the wake of the disaster at Japan's Fukushima plant in March.
"The immediate impact of the decision in Germany is to import more electricity from their neighbours, and a lot of this imported electricity is coal-fired," Jones said.
World coal production stood at 4.928 billion tonnes in 2009, providing around a quarter of the globe's total energy output, according to the IEA.
"The world ... coal market is perceived as structurally tight by many," Societe Generale analyst Emmanuel Fages said in a recent research note.
He added that that coal-hungry nations would continue to depend on the United States -- the world's second biggest producer of coal after China -- to boost supplies.
"The US have been a large coal exporter in the past. Recently they proved able to balance the market by increasing their export volumes ... The US export capacity evolution is thus important to the future global supply-demand equilibrium," Fages said.
The United States is increasingly looking to natural gas to meet its own huge energy needs, enabling it to help feed Asia's thirst for coal.
The US has become a global leader in the production of natural gas extracted from underground shale rock, helping to drive down the commodity's price on markets. Coal prices have meanwhile risen.
"Coal prices have benefited greatly in recent years because of this strong demand from China, and I don't see that changing," said Jones.
"We are looking at a modest increase (in prices) over the next 25 years, and at the same time, production cost will be stable."
China is also seeking to tap its vast shale gas reserves to reduce its reliance on coal. The world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases relies on coal for nearly 70 percent of its energy needs.
Over the past eight years China has on average built one coal-fired power station a week -- and this after it used to be a major exporter of the natural resource.
The cost of securing coal from within China can be fatal however. Last week, at least 20 workers were killed and another 23 trapped underground after a blast at one of the country's mines.
Coal mine accidents are common in China, where work safety is often neglected by bosses seeking a quick profit.
Showing posts with label Asia coal demand. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Asia coal demand. Show all posts
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 2011
South East Asia's aggressive power demand growth will require investment of US$125 billion by 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Thursday, 06 October 11
Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation investments of at least US$125 billion (bn) will still be required between now and 2020. A recent report titled ‘Power Crunch in South East Asia’ provides insight into this by examining regional demand hotspots of Java-Bali, Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Graham Tyler, Head of Asia Gas and Power Research, says, “South East Asia’s power demand growth will outpace Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the next decade. The major demand centres alone will see demand grow from about 92,000 Megawatts (MW) in 2011 to 163,000 MW in 2020, creating a drop in reserve margins, particularly in the 2014 to 2015 period. Therefore timely investments for new power generation will be required.”
The report forecasts that capacity additions in the region are expected to top 30,000 MW and 85,000 MW by 2015 and 2020 respectively. This requires an increase in power project investment from US$44 bn by 2015 to at least US$125 bn by 2020, even if an economic downturn with GDP growth levels similar to 2009 occurs for two consecutive years from 2010-2013. The bulk of the new investment is in coal, amounting to 42% of the investment. The remainder is dominated by gas, which accounts for 18% of the total.
Mr Tyler says, “If immediate actions are taken to correct the existing situation and attract the level of investment required, the impact of power shortages will be softened from 2015 onwards. To achieve this, governments need to encourage the project financing required to meet the power capacity investment levels by speeding up regulatory and approval processes.”
Wood Mackenzie places reserve capacity at an optimal level of 15%. This is crucial to meet unplanned or unexpected power needs. A fall below this will be uncomfortable but if it drops below ten percent, scheduled power cuts should be expected as a regular feature, especially in peak demand seasons that usually fall within the warmer or drier months of the year. Vietnam is hardest hit in the drier months as 40% of their power needs are currently met by hydropower.
The report highlights that Vietnam and Indonesia are most exposed to a potential power crunch and hence require the most investments, representing about 60% of the total required. The regions in West Java and South Vietnam, are particularly in need of new capacity, as they currently have low margins and an over-dependence on power flows from other regions.
Malaysia and Thailand will also see reserve capacity fall below optimal levels in the period to 2015, but the impact should be more manageable as they have been quick to respond to the power shortages by importing power, announcing new projects and speeding up the development of existing ones. These steps will alleviate the power crunch unless project delays or higher demand growth occurs, in which case both countries will also need additional investments.
Summarising, Mr Tyler says, “Power demand growth will increase substantially in the next decade. This strong growth signals that investments of US$125 bn are required to build power capacity additions, even if we see a repeat of 2009’s economic recession over the next two years. Encouraging timely investments in West Java and South Vietnam will be especially crucial and governments can play a part in prioritising investments by expediting processes where possible.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. Wood Mackenzie analyses and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
(sourced coalspot)
Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation investments of at least US$125 billion (bn) will still be required between now and 2020. A recent report titled ‘Power Crunch in South East Asia’ provides insight into this by examining regional demand hotspots of Java-Bali, Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Graham Tyler, Head of Asia Gas and Power Research, says, “South East Asia’s power demand growth will outpace Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the next decade. The major demand centres alone will see demand grow from about 92,000 Megawatts (MW) in 2011 to 163,000 MW in 2020, creating a drop in reserve margins, particularly in the 2014 to 2015 period. Therefore timely investments for new power generation will be required.”
The report forecasts that capacity additions in the region are expected to top 30,000 MW and 85,000 MW by 2015 and 2020 respectively. This requires an increase in power project investment from US$44 bn by 2015 to at least US$125 bn by 2020, even if an economic downturn with GDP growth levels similar to 2009 occurs for two consecutive years from 2010-2013. The bulk of the new investment is in coal, amounting to 42% of the investment. The remainder is dominated by gas, which accounts for 18% of the total.
Mr Tyler says, “If immediate actions are taken to correct the existing situation and attract the level of investment required, the impact of power shortages will be softened from 2015 onwards. To achieve this, governments need to encourage the project financing required to meet the power capacity investment levels by speeding up regulatory and approval processes.”
Wood Mackenzie places reserve capacity at an optimal level of 15%. This is crucial to meet unplanned or unexpected power needs. A fall below this will be uncomfortable but if it drops below ten percent, scheduled power cuts should be expected as a regular feature, especially in peak demand seasons that usually fall within the warmer or drier months of the year. Vietnam is hardest hit in the drier months as 40% of their power needs are currently met by hydropower.
The report highlights that Vietnam and Indonesia are most exposed to a potential power crunch and hence require the most investments, representing about 60% of the total required. The regions in West Java and South Vietnam, are particularly in need of new capacity, as they currently have low margins and an over-dependence on power flows from other regions.
Malaysia and Thailand will also see reserve capacity fall below optimal levels in the period to 2015, but the impact should be more manageable as they have been quick to respond to the power shortages by importing power, announcing new projects and speeding up the development of existing ones. These steps will alleviate the power crunch unless project delays or higher demand growth occurs, in which case both countries will also need additional investments.
Summarising, Mr Tyler says, “Power demand growth will increase substantially in the next decade. This strong growth signals that investments of US$125 bn are required to build power capacity additions, even if we see a repeat of 2009’s economic recession over the next two years. Encouraging timely investments in West Java and South Vietnam will be especially crucial and governments can play a part in prioritising investments by expediting processes where possible.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. Wood Mackenzie analyses and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
(sourced coalspot)
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
India coal import in 2011-12 seen at 142 million tonnes - Government
Wednesday, 28 Sep 2011
Reuters citing Mr Alok Perti coal secretary of India as saying that India coal demand is seen at 696 million tonnes in 2011/12 against an expected local production of 554 million tonnes.
Earlier estimates have suggested Asia's third largest economy is likely to import about 135 million tonnes in the year ending March 31 2012.
(Sourced from Reuters)
Reuters citing Mr Alok Perti coal secretary of India as saying that India coal demand is seen at 696 million tonnes in 2011/12 against an expected local production of 554 million tonnes.
Earlier estimates have suggested Asia's third largest economy is likely to import about 135 million tonnes in the year ending March 31 2012.
(Sourced from Reuters)
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Euro coal prices drop another USD 1 per tonne in active trade
Thursday, 15 Sep 2011
Reuters reported that prompt physical coal prices fell by another USD 1.00 a tonne on Wednesday having dropped steadily for the past few days on weak demand in Europe and Asia.
European DES ARA prices have held steady in a narrow range for most of this year, between around USD 125 to USD 130 dollars, because frequent buying by one utility has been enough to prop up prices.
However, the number of October to December DES cargoes offered has been rising and bids from a handful of buyers have been dropping, pushing DES prices out of the range.
A November DES ARA cargo traded at USD 121.50 on Wednesday down around USD 1.00 from the previous day. December cargoes were offered at a similar level.
One European trader said "There have been more sellers today, it's been fairly active and it's looking weaker every day."
South African FOB prices have also been dropping steadily for the past several days. There has been limited spot buying by Chinese and Indian traders but not enough to support prices.
(sourced from Reuters)
Reuters reported that prompt physical coal prices fell by another USD 1.00 a tonne on Wednesday having dropped steadily for the past few days on weak demand in Europe and Asia.
European DES ARA prices have held steady in a narrow range for most of this year, between around USD 125 to USD 130 dollars, because frequent buying by one utility has been enough to prop up prices.
However, the number of October to December DES cargoes offered has been rising and bids from a handful of buyers have been dropping, pushing DES prices out of the range.
A November DES ARA cargo traded at USD 121.50 on Wednesday down around USD 1.00 from the previous day. December cargoes were offered at a similar level.
One European trader said "There have been more sellers today, it's been fairly active and it's looking weaker every day."
South African FOB prices have also been dropping steadily for the past several days. There has been limited spot buying by Chinese and Indian traders but not enough to support prices.
(sourced from Reuters)
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Update on South Africa coal rail and port bottleneck
Sunday, 28 Aug 2011
Coal producers in SA have been eager to export more coal to meet rising demand from India and China but have been limited by infrastructure bottlenecks.
Below is a breakdown of port and rail infrastructure hurdles and some of the expansion plans in southern Africa.
1. State owned logistics group Transnet operates SA’s entire rail network. The company transported 62.2 million tonnes of coal to the export terminal at Richards Bay in its last financial year, far short of an expanded capacity of 91 million tonnes at the port.
The group has said it plans to raise capacity on the coal export line to 81 million tonnes by 2015, and it is studying the possibility of freeing up some 14 million tonnes of capacity on the coal line in two to three years by moving non coal cargo to a new line via Swaziland.
2. Coal producers have said they would be willing to pitch in to accelerate Transnet’s expansion and have been discussing possible deals for years. But Transnet CEO Brian Molefe in June dampened expectations that anything would happen soon, saying many such private-public deals had turned out to be disasters.
Mr Molefe said possible deals could include a partnership in which a private player would build and operate a line or Transnet would give privately owned locomotives and wagons access to its rail lines or lease them. Transnet has repeatedly questioned companies’ ability to produce the amounts they have said they would like to export.
3. Transnet is discussing the option of building a new line linking the Richards Bay terminal with the Waterberg coalfield, touted to become SA’s next major coal region, although the line is unlikely to materialise soon.
Transkalahari Rail line Construction of a railway line connecting Botswana’s Mmamabula coal field with the Namibian port of Walvis Bay, pegged at USD 10 billion is expected to start in late 2012 and take some five years. Industry said the line, to be built in a private-public partnership, should have capacity of around 50 million tons to be economically viable and robust. Namibia’s government has said that the rail line may be extended to the Zambian border to facilitate exports of Zambian minerals via Walvis Bay, including copper.
4. Richards Bay Coal Terminal is the world’s single largest export coal terminal, with an expanded capacity of 91-million tonnes. It has said it could increase capacity to beyond 110 million tonnes once volumes on the rail lines have been improved.
5. South Dunes Coal Terminal has an allocation of 6 million tonnes half of which belongs to state owned power utility Eskom.
Eskom said in November it was seeking proposals from coal producers for the use of its 3 million tonne stake.
6. Logistics group Grindrod said in June that an expansion of available coal capacity at its dry bulk terminal in Richards Bay to 3,2 million tonnes from 1,5 million should be completed within months. It said it would like to increase the terminal’s capacity by 10 million tonnes or more. Durban Bulk Connections The company operates a 3,5 million tonne export terminal from Durban. Around a million of that capacity is dedicated to coal. The company had plans to increase that capacity to 5 million tonnes and to build a new 3 million tonne coal export operation at Richards Bay but has so far failed to secure permits to do so.
MOZAMBIQUE
1. Grindrod said it had recently expanded capacity at the Matola Terminal in Maputo, Mozambique, to between 6 million tonnes and 7 million tonnes, out of which 5 million tonnes will be for coal and 2 million tonnes for magnetite. The company is now finalizing the feasibility study to potentially add 20 million tonnes to the terminal’s capacity by late 2014.
2. Beira Current coal infrastructure is limited to a capacity of 6 million tonnes on both the railway line and the Beira terminal. Riversdale’s allowance at Beira amounts to a third of that, with the remainder allocated to Brazil’s Vale, which is developing its large Moatize coal project. Studies are being conducted into expansion of the rail line and construction of a new terminal at Beira, which would have capacity of 18 million tonnes.
3. Chinde Coal producers are also looking at building a 20 million tonnes coal terminal at Chinde, north of Beira. The port’s construction is planned to coincide with the start-up of production at Riversdale’s larger Zambeze project, expected to begin producing from 2015.
4. Nacala Mozambique’s Nacala Development Corridor plans to invest USD 200 million to upgrade its port at Nacala and raise capacity to 16 million tonnes of cargo in 2030 from 1,5 million tonnes. Brazil’s Vale has said it may use Nacala as an alternative to the Beira port.
NAMIBIA
1. Walvis Bay The Walvis Bay Corridor Group, a public private partnership, plans to spend NZD 2 billion by 2014 to extend its container terminals to be able to handle larger volumes of commodities processed through the port. Other investments will entail infrastructure upgrades along the three trade corridors linking to South Africa, Angola and the copper belt in Zambia and the DRC.
(Sourced from www.businessday.co.za)
Coal producers in SA have been eager to export more coal to meet rising demand from India and China but have been limited by infrastructure bottlenecks.
Below is a breakdown of port and rail infrastructure hurdles and some of the expansion plans in southern Africa.
1. State owned logistics group Transnet operates SA’s entire rail network. The company transported 62.2 million tonnes of coal to the export terminal at Richards Bay in its last financial year, far short of an expanded capacity of 91 million tonnes at the port.
The group has said it plans to raise capacity on the coal export line to 81 million tonnes by 2015, and it is studying the possibility of freeing up some 14 million tonnes of capacity on the coal line in two to three years by moving non coal cargo to a new line via Swaziland.
2. Coal producers have said they would be willing to pitch in to accelerate Transnet’s expansion and have been discussing possible deals for years. But Transnet CEO Brian Molefe in June dampened expectations that anything would happen soon, saying many such private-public deals had turned out to be disasters.
Mr Molefe said possible deals could include a partnership in which a private player would build and operate a line or Transnet would give privately owned locomotives and wagons access to its rail lines or lease them. Transnet has repeatedly questioned companies’ ability to produce the amounts they have said they would like to export.
3. Transnet is discussing the option of building a new line linking the Richards Bay terminal with the Waterberg coalfield, touted to become SA’s next major coal region, although the line is unlikely to materialise soon.
Transkalahari Rail line Construction of a railway line connecting Botswana’s Mmamabula coal field with the Namibian port of Walvis Bay, pegged at USD 10 billion is expected to start in late 2012 and take some five years. Industry said the line, to be built in a private-public partnership, should have capacity of around 50 million tons to be economically viable and robust. Namibia’s government has said that the rail line may be extended to the Zambian border to facilitate exports of Zambian minerals via Walvis Bay, including copper.
4. Richards Bay Coal Terminal is the world’s single largest export coal terminal, with an expanded capacity of 91-million tonnes. It has said it could increase capacity to beyond 110 million tonnes once volumes on the rail lines have been improved.
5. South Dunes Coal Terminal has an allocation of 6 million tonnes half of which belongs to state owned power utility Eskom.
Eskom said in November it was seeking proposals from coal producers for the use of its 3 million tonne stake.
6. Logistics group Grindrod said in June that an expansion of available coal capacity at its dry bulk terminal in Richards Bay to 3,2 million tonnes from 1,5 million should be completed within months. It said it would like to increase the terminal’s capacity by 10 million tonnes or more. Durban Bulk Connections The company operates a 3,5 million tonne export terminal from Durban. Around a million of that capacity is dedicated to coal. The company had plans to increase that capacity to 5 million tonnes and to build a new 3 million tonne coal export operation at Richards Bay but has so far failed to secure permits to do so.
MOZAMBIQUE
1. Grindrod said it had recently expanded capacity at the Matola Terminal in Maputo, Mozambique, to between 6 million tonnes and 7 million tonnes, out of which 5 million tonnes will be for coal and 2 million tonnes for magnetite. The company is now finalizing the feasibility study to potentially add 20 million tonnes to the terminal’s capacity by late 2014.
2. Beira Current coal infrastructure is limited to a capacity of 6 million tonnes on both the railway line and the Beira terminal. Riversdale’s allowance at Beira amounts to a third of that, with the remainder allocated to Brazil’s Vale, which is developing its large Moatize coal project. Studies are being conducted into expansion of the rail line and construction of a new terminal at Beira, which would have capacity of 18 million tonnes.
3. Chinde Coal producers are also looking at building a 20 million tonnes coal terminal at Chinde, north of Beira. The port’s construction is planned to coincide with the start-up of production at Riversdale’s larger Zambeze project, expected to begin producing from 2015.
4. Nacala Mozambique’s Nacala Development Corridor plans to invest USD 200 million to upgrade its port at Nacala and raise capacity to 16 million tonnes of cargo in 2030 from 1,5 million tonnes. Brazil’s Vale has said it may use Nacala as an alternative to the Beira port.
NAMIBIA
1. Walvis Bay The Walvis Bay Corridor Group, a public private partnership, plans to spend NZD 2 billion by 2014 to extend its container terminals to be able to handle larger volumes of commodities processed through the port. Other investments will entail infrastructure upgrades along the three trade corridors linking to South Africa, Angola and the copper belt in Zambia and the DRC.
(Sourced from www.businessday.co.za)
Friday, August 12, 2011
US coal exports on pace to hit 107mn st this year
Aug11, 2011,
Washington, 11 August — June's US coal exports reached their second-highest level of the year despite coking coal volumes falling slightly from May.
Total exports increased 23pc to 9.1mn short tons (8.3mn metric tonnes) from 7.39mn st in June 2010 and marked a slight gain from 9.04mn st in May, according to US Census Bureau data released today. US exports for the first half of the year rose to 53.6mn st, up 35pc from 39.7mn st in the year-ago period to set an annualized pace of 107mn st.
In 2010, US exports totaled 81.7mn st, the Census reports.
While coking coal again accounted for the majority of total coal exports, the segment fell month to month to 5.79mn st in June from 6.43mn st in May. In contrast, shipments of all steam coal types, including anthracite, bituminous, lignite, non-bituminous steam coals and sub-bituminous coals, rose to 3.31mn st in June from 2.61mn st in May.
Among the six major US ports where coal is shipped, the Norfolk Census district saw the largest amount of shipments at 3.25mn st, although coal exports from Norfolk actually declined for the third consecutive month.
June exports from New Orleans, the second-highest exporting port, were at their second-highest level for 2011 at 1.85mn st, jumping from a flood-slowed May when its volumes totaled 1.39mn st.
Europe and Asia again were the two continents importing the most US coal. But while exports to Europe were at their highest monthly level this year, at 4.33mn st, exports to Asia were at their lowest level for 2011, at 2.21mn st.
While US coal exports were at their second-highest level for the year in June, US coal imports were at their second-lowest level as generators relied on ample inventories and as low natural gas prices encouraged fuel-switching.
The US imported 970,196st of coal in June, compared with 1.31mn st in May and 1.77mn st a year ago. Imports of Colombian coal totaled 518,351st, off 58pc from 1.23mn st a year ago and off 41pc from 876,399st in May.
(sourced Argus)
Friday, March 4, 2011
China Coal-Prices stay at 4-mth low; seen weak til May
Mar03, 2011
* Market well-supplied
* Chinese coal discount vs Australian imports highest since '08
By Fayen Wong
825-835 770-780 8.472 Mar 02
825-835 770-780 7.533 Feb 21
825-835 775-785 7.284 Feb 14
825-835 775-785 7.426 Feb 07
825-835 775-785 6.859 Jan 31
825-835 775-785 7.071 Jan 24
835-845 780-790 7.210 Jan 17
835-845 780-790 6.954 Jan 10
835-845 780-790 7.049 Jan 04
835-845 780-790 7.104 Dec 30
835-845 780-790 7.590 Dec 24
840-850 790-800 7.006 Dec 20
845-855 795-805 6.711 Dec 13
845-855 795-805 6.663 Dec 06
860-870 805-815 5.789 Nov 29
850-860 795-805 6.170 Nov 22
840-850 790-800 6.197 Nov 15
840-850 790-800 6.387 Nov 08
825-835 765-775 6.805 Nov 01
(Reporting by Fayen Wong, Editing by Jonathan Hopfner, By Thomson Reuters)
* Market well-supplied
* Chinese coal discount vs Australian imports highest since '08
By Fayen Wong
SHANGHAI - China's thermal coal prices were stuck at a four-month low of 770 yuan ($117.2) a tonne as supplies continued to outstrip demand, with stockpiles at Qinhuangdao port rising to the highest in more than seven months.
Some Chinese traders remained bearish on the market and voiced concerns that demand would only pick up in late April or May ahead of summer restocking by utilities.
Coal with a heating value of 5,500 kcal/kg was flat at 770-780 ($117.19-$118.72) on Wednesday, while stocks at top coal port Qinhuangdao jumped 12.5 percent to 8.47 million tonnes, data from industry website sxcoal.com showed.
Coal with heating value of 6,000 kcal/kg (NAR) was steady at 825-835 yuan.
"Prices won't start moving higher until around May. The outlook for imports will probably only improve ahead of summer, but even that is highly dependent on international prices," said a source at a big trading house.
"We have to remember that China doesn't need to import. They have more than enough coal domestically to feed the entire nation. They only do it when imports are cheaper."
But coal prices in Australia and South Africa have continued to rise in recent weeks, making Chinese coal cheaper by $38 and $9.30 a tonne respectively, based on coal with heating value of 6,000 kcal/kg NAR, Reuters calculations showed.
The arbitrage between Chinese coal prices and Australian imports are at the widest since September 2008.
"The floodgates of Chinese demand closed as suddenly as they had opened in 2009. You get the occasional enquiry but they are just fishing; none of them are serious buyers," said a Singapore-based trader.
Another trader said Chinese buyers were offering some $5-$10 below market rates for Indonesian sub-bituminous coal, which is now hovering at around $87 a tonne, based on coal with a net heating value of 4,900 kcal/kg.
Lured by higher overseas prices, Chinese producers are still trying to sell spot shipments to Japan, but there is a general lack of buying interest in Japan and the Pacific market as whole.
Australia's thermal coal prices, a benchmark for Asia, slipped to $132 a tonne versus last week in a thinly traded market which is largely awaiting the results of annual contract negotiations between Australian producers and Japanese utilities.
[COAL/ASIA]
Weekly Qinhuangdao prices for (Yuan) PORT STOCKS >6,000 kcal/kg >5,500 Kcal/KG (Mln Tonnes) WEEK TO
Some Chinese traders remained bearish on the market and voiced concerns that demand would only pick up in late April or May ahead of summer restocking by utilities.
Coal with a heating value of 5,500 kcal/kg was flat at 770-780 ($117.19-$118.72) on Wednesday, while stocks at top coal port Qinhuangdao jumped 12.5 percent to 8.47 million tonnes, data from industry website sxcoal.com showed.
Coal with heating value of 6,000 kcal/kg (NAR) was steady at 825-835 yuan.
"Prices won't start moving higher until around May. The outlook for imports will probably only improve ahead of summer, but even that is highly dependent on international prices," said a source at a big trading house.
"We have to remember that China doesn't need to import. They have more than enough coal domestically to feed the entire nation. They only do it when imports are cheaper."
But coal prices in Australia and South Africa have continued to rise in recent weeks, making Chinese coal cheaper by $38 and $9.30 a tonne respectively, based on coal with heating value of 6,000 kcal/kg NAR, Reuters calculations showed.
The arbitrage between Chinese coal prices and Australian imports are at the widest since September 2008.
"The floodgates of Chinese demand closed as suddenly as they had opened in 2009. You get the occasional enquiry but they are just fishing; none of them are serious buyers," said a Singapore-based trader.
Another trader said Chinese buyers were offering some $5-$10 below market rates for Indonesian sub-bituminous coal, which is now hovering at around $87 a tonne, based on coal with a net heating value of 4,900 kcal/kg.
Lured by higher overseas prices, Chinese producers are still trying to sell spot shipments to Japan, but there is a general lack of buying interest in Japan and the Pacific market as whole.
Australia's thermal coal prices, a benchmark for Asia, slipped to $132 a tonne versus last week in a thinly traded market which is largely awaiting the results of annual contract negotiations between Australian producers and Japanese utilities.
[COAL/ASIA]
Weekly Qinhuangdao prices for (Yuan) PORT STOCKS >6,000 kcal/kg >5,500 Kcal/KG (Mln Tonnes) WEEK TO
825-835 770-780 8.472 Mar 02
825-835 770-780 7.533 Feb 21
825-835 775-785 7.284 Feb 14
825-835 775-785 7.426 Feb 07
825-835 775-785 6.859 Jan 31
825-835 775-785 7.071 Jan 24
835-845 780-790 7.210 Jan 17
835-845 780-790 6.954 Jan 10
835-845 780-790 7.049 Jan 04
835-845 780-790 7.104 Dec 30
835-845 780-790 7.590 Dec 24
840-850 790-800 7.006 Dec 20
845-855 795-805 6.711 Dec 13
845-855 795-805 6.663 Dec 06
860-870 805-815 5.789 Nov 29
850-860 795-805 6.170 Nov 22
840-850 790-800 6.197 Nov 15
840-850 790-800 6.387 Nov 08
825-835 765-775 6.805 Nov 01
(Reporting by Fayen Wong, Editing by Jonathan Hopfner, By Thomson Reuters)
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Asia demand to push Colombia coal to Europe-Cerrejon
Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:01pm GMT
* Port to close for routine maintenance for 20 days
* Asian demand to draw Colombian coal to Europe
* Firm to present expansion plan in next few months
By Jack Kimball
BOGOTA, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Colombia's largest coal exporter, Cerrejon, sees Asian demand propelling more Colombian coal to Europe and that demand will also keep prices at current
levels, the company's president said on Wednesday.
The overall trend for coal prices this year is upward but a series of price shocks is likely as the market reacts to supply disruptions and the sudden appearance and disappearance of
Chinese spot buying, analysts say.
"Long-term (the current price of coal) is relatively sustainable because of the dynamics of supply and demand in the world," Cerrejon President Leon Teicher told reporters.
"China, India, Asia (are) growing and taking a lot of the volume from South Africa and therefore leaving more space open for us in Europe," he said in Colombia's capital, Bogota.
Prices hit a peak of $130 a tonne early in January when sentiment after Australian floods sent prices to a 12-month high. An April Colombian only cargo was bid on Wednesday at $115.00 against an offer at $117.50.
Colombia -- one of the top producers of high-quality thermal coal -- saw a dramatic increase in exports to China last year although the main markets for Colombian material
remain the United States and Europe.
Neither coal exporters, analysts nor officials believe the destination make-up of Colombian coal exports will shift dramatically -- though the Latin American nation has also seen increased exports to Japan and South Korea.
Teicher said the company -- a joint venture between BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote), Anglo American (AAL.L: Quote) and Xstrata (XTA.L: Quote) --had sent less than half a million tonnes to Asia so this year.
Cerrejon and union workers signed a two-year compensation agreement earlier this month, avoiding a strike at a time when the company is trying to recover production following heavy
rains across the country last year.
Teicher said Cerrejon exported 31.5 million tonnes in 2010 but produced only 30.3 million tonnes. "We had intensive use of our inventories," he said.
The company still expects production to hit 32 million tonnes or the mine's nominal capacity in 2011, while Teicher also said he expected a shareholder decision on the mine's expansion plan later this year.
Canada's SNC-Lavalin Group Inc (SNC.TO: Quote) and a partner have been awarded the expansion contract for a project to boost output to 40 million tonnes annually.
"I have not yet presented the expansion project for shareholder approval," Teicher said, adding that he expected to do so in the "next few months".
Cerrejon will close its port for 20 days from around Feb. 20 for routine maintenance and clients have been advised, Teicher said. It plans to replace parts of the shiploader.
(Editing by Dale Hudson, sourced:ThomsonReuters)
Tags:Asia coal demand, Colombian coal, Europe, Cerrejon, coal exporters, coal prices, thermal coal, BHP Billiton, Anglo American Plc, Xstrata, SNC Group Inc., raw material, South Africa
* Port to close for routine maintenance for 20 days
* Asian demand to draw Colombian coal to Europe
* Firm to present expansion plan in next few months
By Jack Kimball
BOGOTA, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Colombia's largest coal exporter, Cerrejon, sees Asian demand propelling more Colombian coal to Europe and that demand will also keep prices at current
levels, the company's president said on Wednesday.
The overall trend for coal prices this year is upward but a series of price shocks is likely as the market reacts to supply disruptions and the sudden appearance and disappearance of
Chinese spot buying, analysts say.
"Long-term (the current price of coal) is relatively sustainable because of the dynamics of supply and demand in the world," Cerrejon President Leon Teicher told reporters.
"China, India, Asia (are) growing and taking a lot of the volume from South Africa and therefore leaving more space open for us in Europe," he said in Colombia's capital, Bogota.
Prices hit a peak of $130 a tonne early in January when sentiment after Australian floods sent prices to a 12-month high. An April Colombian only cargo was bid on Wednesday at $115.00 against an offer at $117.50.
Colombia -- one of the top producers of high-quality thermal coal -- saw a dramatic increase in exports to China last year although the main markets for Colombian material
remain the United States and Europe.
Neither coal exporters, analysts nor officials believe the destination make-up of Colombian coal exports will shift dramatically -- though the Latin American nation has also seen increased exports to Japan and South Korea.
Teicher said the company -- a joint venture between BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote), Anglo American (AAL.L: Quote) and Xstrata (XTA.L: Quote) --had sent less than half a million tonnes to Asia so this year.
Cerrejon and union workers signed a two-year compensation agreement earlier this month, avoiding a strike at a time when the company is trying to recover production following heavy
rains across the country last year.
Teicher said Cerrejon exported 31.5 million tonnes in 2010 but produced only 30.3 million tonnes. "We had intensive use of our inventories," he said.
The company still expects production to hit 32 million tonnes or the mine's nominal capacity in 2011, while Teicher also said he expected a shareholder decision on the mine's expansion plan later this year.
Canada's SNC-Lavalin Group Inc (SNC.TO: Quote) and a partner have been awarded the expansion contract for a project to boost output to 40 million tonnes annually.
"I have not yet presented the expansion project for shareholder approval," Teicher said, adding that he expected to do so in the "next few months".
Cerrejon will close its port for 20 days from around Feb. 20 for routine maintenance and clients have been advised, Teicher said. It plans to replace parts of the shiploader.
(Editing by Dale Hudson, sourced:ThomsonReuters)
Tags:Asia coal demand, Colombian coal, Europe, Cerrejon, coal exporters, coal prices, thermal coal, BHP Billiton, Anglo American Plc, Xstrata, SNC Group Inc., raw material, South Africa
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
