After a brief upward momentum which ended early last week, the Baltic Dry Index, the dry bulk market’s benchmark has returned to its usual pattern, falling yesterday for a seventh straight session. The BDI is now down to 1,271 points, again as a result of the suffering from huge oversupply panamax market segment. The relative Panamax Index was down by 4% yesterday to 1,597 points, the Capesize market was practically unchanged, to 1,459, still lagging against its half in size counterpart. On a more resilient tone, the Supramax market was up by six points to reach 1,399 points.
Average daily rates for panamaxes now stand at $12,806, while for Capesizes they stand at just $5,688. Supramaxes command a daily average of $14,625, while handysizes earn $11,679 on average. According to Erik Nikolai Stavseth, an analyst with Arctic Securities ASA in Oslo, who was quoted by Bloomberg, the decline may continue in the panamax front. He said that they expected a further weakening in the panamax market as reports indicate a high number of vessels available. According to the analyst, power shortages in China and low coal inventories will most certainly boost coal imports, but again they won’t be enough to lift rates.
Commenting on the panamax market, Fearnley’s said in its latest weekly report that “another relatively slow week, still shoving some activity from EC South America, but some fix and failures as market clearly is in a downward trend. Rates nudged up to the mid USD 25k daily range and around USD 500k bonus on the run to the eastern hemisphere. For Transtlantic business the pressure on the Continent for prompt tonnage seems to ease and rates on average around the 13k mark. Rates in the Far East also heading south with spot-prompt ships struggling to find cover from any fresh orders as rates descend closer to the 10k level. Period business very limited and the forward market now rating the next 18 months just under USD 12k/day. Other segments not adding any support or fuelling a bearish sentiment” said the report.
As for the Capesize market, it mentioned that “during the past week, two more 12-month period deals have been done at a lower USD 11500. Even as new lows are reached the volume is thin. The recent fall in bunker prices has not come to the owners benefit, but rather to the charterers. Rates across the board have fallen during the last 7 days and today the weakest market is the in the Atlantic. With the present spot market charterers are also struggling to make sense of taking short period vessels as it is difficult to recover the premium vis-a-vis the spot market” said Fearnley’s.
Finally, on the Handy/Supramax markets: “The Atlantic is marked by volatility and very positional, nevertheless USG, NCSA, Cont remain strong thanks to the petcoke, grains and scrap but the flooding in the Mississippi could have a negative effect on the market. The S.Atlantic is a bit more active and seeing more and more tonnage ballasting from Med. The Bl.Sea is difficult for Supras. Trips to Feast are at 20k+400k levels. Outlook: Steady. Pacific market remains quiet. For Indo-India, Supras in N.China gets close to 13k. Nickel-ore rounds get firm rates in high teens from Indonesia. Also many owns prefer to do now Indo coal or nickel ore to China rather than going to India owing to monsoons. WCI-China rates slided to 15k and from ECI around 13k, but few ships seen ballasting to Indo as not much cargoes ex-ECI. Red Sea, ferts on handymax/Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voyage basis to WC India. Large Supras for RBCT/India round now asking 15k. Short period deals done at mid-teens for large Supras” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, coalspot.com
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